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About Oregon daily emerald. (Eugene, Or.) 1920-2012 | View Entire Issue (Dec. 13, 1982)
Politicians’ picks more accurate uy uavid Steinmetz Of the Emerald Who knows better how the voters will vote — politicians or voters? A recent University study found politicians were the better predictors of statewide voting on two ballot measures in the November election. James Lemert. a University journalism professor, says the study was "central to my deci sion-making theory that deci sion-makers are under pressure to be accurate ” Inaccuracy on their part could get them voted out of office or embarrassed by the media, Lemert says, but sophistication and practice also could be im portant factors Lemert and his Journalism and Public Opinion class sur veyed 283 voters as they left the polls in 29 precincts throughout Eugene and Springfield, asking them how they thought Ballot Measures 3 and 6 would fare statewide. For comparison, Lemert sent out questionnaires to politicians and campaign managers He received 58 before election day predicting whether or not meas ures 3 and 6 would pass and what percent of the vote would Political party gets early jump on ASUO race By Richard Burr Of the Emerald A student political party is gearing up early for the ASUO elections to avoid last year's mistakes and to support student programs during Incidental Fee Committee budget hearings Students for a Progressive Agenda wiil send representa tives to the IFC hearings to provide moral support for pro gram directors and to show the committee that programs sup port one another, says Kevin Kouns, an SPA founder "We're not trying to be ag gressive or threatening to the committee and its decision making process," says Kouns, who lost the ASUO presidency last year to C J Balfe by 143 votes "I don't think it will have an adverse effect on the committee members whatsoever,” adds Mary Alice Holmes, IFC and SPA member Many program directors, who are also SPA members, will give advice on how to approach the hearings, Kouns says. SPA members will provide emotional support because budget hear ings can "stress out" program directors, he says In addition, SPA is starting earlier than last year on the ASUO elections The group has had two meetings, and the next is scheduled for Jan 12. The SPA had mixed results from starting late in last year's elections Four SPA-endorsed candidates were elected — three to the IFC and one to the EMU Board "I think we proved both how good an idea SPA is and how in touch we were with student in terests," Kouns says But the group was too secre tive in its election preparations and did not reach its potential, he says "We tried to surprise every Continued on Page 10 be "yes ” Politicians proved to be more accurate on both measures. They predicted 48 1 percent of the voters would support Measure 3, the property-tax limitation measure, while the actual "yes” vote was 49 5 per cent Voters guessed the support would be 45 8 percent. Success of Measure 6, which would have eliminated the Land Conservation and Development Voters project attitudes onto everybody else Commission, was predicted even more accurately by poli ticians: 45 2 percent as com pared to the actual 44 9 per cent Voters estimated Measure 6 would receive 46 7 percent support Most politicians cited person al contacts with citizens as their main method of estimation, with published polls also contribut ing I r In another conclusion, Lemert noted that voters had a strong tendency to apply their own vote on the measures to their predictions on wnether or not the measures would pass Politicians were less likely to make this assumption Seventy percent of the people voting for Measure 3 corre spondingly thought it would pass, while just as many of the "no" voters estimated it would not pass This tendency was even stronger on Measure 6 Lemert says this trend illus trates an inclination for people who are less pressured to project their "own values and attitudes onto everybody else, assuming that anybody who has any sense must agree " Lemert, who has written a book addressed to public opin ion researchers titled "Does Mass Communication Change Public Opinion After All?” says this study is one of many not yet conducted in the field, but "needs to be done." 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