Politicians’ picks more accurate
uy uavid Steinmetz
Of the Emerald
Who knows better how the
voters will vote — politicians or
voters?
A recent University study
found politicians were the better
predictors of statewide voting
on two ballot measures in the
November election.
James Lemert. a University
journalism professor, says the
study was "central to my deci
sion-making theory that deci
sion-makers are under pressure
to be accurate ”
Inaccuracy on their part could
get them voted out of office or
embarrassed by the media,
Lemert says, but sophistication
and practice also could be im
portant factors
Lemert and his Journalism
and Public Opinion class sur
veyed 283 voters as they left the
polls in 29 precincts throughout
Eugene and Springfield, asking
them how they thought Ballot
Measures 3 and 6 would fare
statewide.
For comparison, Lemert sent
out questionnaires to politicians
and campaign managers He
received 58 before election day
predicting whether or not meas
ures 3 and 6 would pass and
what percent of the vote would
Political party
gets early jump
on ASUO race
By Richard Burr
Of the Emerald
A student political party is
gearing up early for the ASUO
elections to avoid last year's
mistakes and to support student
programs during Incidental Fee
Committee budget hearings
Students for a Progressive
Agenda wiil send representa
tives to the IFC hearings to
provide moral support for pro
gram directors and to show the
committee that programs sup
port one another, says Kevin
Kouns, an SPA founder
"We're not trying to be ag
gressive or threatening to the
committee and its decision
making process," says Kouns,
who lost the ASUO presidency
last year to C J Balfe by 143
votes
"I don't think it will have an
adverse effect on the committee
members whatsoever,” adds
Mary Alice Holmes, IFC and SPA
member
Many program directors, who
are also SPA members, will give
advice on how to approach the
hearings, Kouns says. SPA
members will provide emotional
support because budget hear
ings can "stress out" program
directors, he says
In addition, SPA is starting
earlier than last year on the
ASUO elections The group has
had two meetings, and the next
is scheduled for Jan 12.
The SPA had mixed results
from starting late in last year's
elections Four SPA-endorsed
candidates were elected —
three to the IFC and one to the
EMU Board
"I think we proved both how
good an idea SPA is and how in
touch we were with student in
terests," Kouns says
But the group was too secre
tive in its election preparations
and did not reach its potential,
he says
"We tried to surprise every
Continued on Page 10
be "yes ”
Politicians proved to be more
accurate on both measures.
They predicted 48 1 percent
of the voters would support
Measure 3, the property-tax
limitation measure, while the
actual "yes” vote was 49 5 per
cent
Voters guessed the support
would be 45 8 percent.
Success of Measure 6, which
would have eliminated the Land
Conservation and Development
Voters project
attitudes onto
everybody else
Commission, was predicted
even more accurately by poli
ticians: 45 2 percent as com
pared to the actual 44 9 per
cent
Voters estimated Measure 6
would receive 46 7 percent
support
Most politicians cited person
al contacts with citizens as their
main method of estimation, with
published polls also contribut
ing
I
r
In another conclusion,
Lemert noted that voters had a
strong tendency to apply their
own vote on the measures to
their predictions on wnether or
not the measures would pass
Politicians were less likely to
make this assumption
Seventy percent of the people
voting for Measure 3 corre
spondingly thought it would
pass, while just as many of the
"no" voters estimated it would
not pass This tendency was
even stronger on Measure 6
Lemert says this trend illus
trates an inclination for people
who are less pressured to
project their "own values and
attitudes onto everybody else,
assuming that anybody who has
any sense must agree "
Lemert, who has written a
book addressed to public opin
ion researchers titled "Does
Mass Communication Change
Public Opinion After All?” says
this study is one of many not yet
conducted in the field, but
"needs to be done."
The poll was sponsored by
the University Communication
Research Division
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