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About The news-review. (Roseburg, Or.) 1948-1994 | View Entire Issue (July 28, 1948)
NEWS-REVIEW, ROSEBURG, OREGON. WEDNESDAY, JULY 28, 1948 NINE Here's One Man Who Knows How to Forecast Elections By PETER EDSON N'EA Washington Correspondent WASHINGTON (NEA) Louis H. Bean, Department ol Agri culture economist and statistician, has had the nerve to write a book called' "How to Predict Elections," Just published by Knopf. He doesn't handle the subject exactly like mystery story, with the answer on whether It will be Dewey or Truman revealed In the last chapter. Instead, he Rives all the clues, charts and tables on past elections and trends. Then he leaves it up to the reader to dope It out for himself. Twelve years ago, Louis Bean says he fell in love at first sight with a half page of figures election figures, that Is in the World Almanac. These figures have Jeen his hobby ever since. That he is good can be attested by this writer. Two years ago he sought out Dr. Bean for a forecast on the off-year congres sional elections. No flat predic tion was forthcoming. But after looking over all the factors. Mr. Bean made an estimate that the Republicans would win about twice as many seats as they need ed to get control of both Senate WHY PAY CASH For Construction Material When You Can Buy From Mayhew on Tim 10 Down 3 YEARS TO PAY Stop at the Log Cabin Coos Junction and House. The result was so close that It was uncanny. The GOP needed 26 eats in the House and six in the Senate to gain control. Twice that was 52 and 12. What they won was 55 and 12. Dtmo Revival in SO's In the last chapter of "How to Predict Elections," Louis Bean now takes a flyer on "1948 and the Incoming Tide." It Is his considered opinion that 1947 marked the end of the downward trend In the New Deal tide, the beginning of a new one. He backs this up with a chart showing two-party power, as measured hv Republican and Democratic majorities In the House for 60 years past. Democratic peaks came In the years 1890-92, 191214. 1932-36. Republican peaks, lasting some what longer, have come In the years 1894-1904, 1920-28, and 1946 to well, what's your guess? Author Bean's guess seems to be that even If the Republicans do win In 1948, the Democrats will be due for a rise in the 1950's. After that, thev'd take another dive In the 1960's. For short range forecasters, SAWDUST SLAB WOOD PLANER ENDS Immediate Delivery DENN-GERRETSEN CO. Phono 128 402 W. Oak Olympic Stature t4J1 o . J ; Joe Depietro, left, four-foot, eight-inch Paterson, N.J., Olympic we ightlif ter and seven-foot Bob Kurltnd. Phil hps Oilers' basketball star from Bartlesville, Oklt . represent the extremes in Olympic st ture. Both are champions in their fields and will compete in London. people without the equivalent of a fourth grade education. During the war the Army used DURABIE AS MOUNT HOOD! Chrystalite Tile Pumice Blocks Officially approved by F. H. A., for outside load-bearing walls, without furring. Ideal for Homes, Schools, Churches, Theaters, Commer. rial and Industrial Construc tion and all types of Farm Buildings. Manufactured Locally By HIghwav ! 3 miles North Rosehurg Telephone S95-R-J CHRYSTALITE TILE, INC. All types of 6-Inch high blocks are available. For further sav ings, 8"x8"xl6" blocks will be available very soon. Bean warns that his boiling polit ical pot must be allowed to quiet down before brewing predictions. He himself seems to lean to the belief that the Republican victory of 1946 may be of short duration. He says one result of the third party emergence may be the elec tion of a Republican president and a Democratic Congress. Othtr 'Experts' Ditftr Other political "experts" have other Ideas. Author Bean Is fair enough to cite them. Prof. Arth ur N. Holcombe Is quoted on the theory that whenever a party In power loses control of Congress in off-year elections. It also loses the presidency In the next elec tion. This happened In 1882, 1890, 1894, 1910, 1918, 1930. Prof. Arthur M. Schleslnger, Sr.. of Harvard, is Quoted on his theory that periods of liberalism are followed by periods of conser vatism, each lasting from 15 to 18 years. Under this theory, the 16-year period of New Deal liber alism lasting from 1931 to 194T would normally be followed by a period of conservatism lasting ; from 1947 to approximately 1963. Assuming no recession comes m 1948 49, statistician Bean charts a possible alternate course to that of Schelesinger. If a de pression should hit somewhere about 1952, Bean saya that the Democrats or their equivalents or successors would dominate the U. S. political scene during the last half of the 1950's. All this speculation Is pretty much of a mental exercise with statistics. Bean says he has given no consideration to personalities. He thereby admits the same kind of error that political bosses do when they talk personalities and political movement without facts and figures. Bill Proposes $130 Million Federal Aid to Help Ten Million Illiterates By ROBERT E. GEIGER . WASHINGTON Would you know what to do If you saw a sign that said "Explosives Keep Away"? Or "Poison For External Use Only"? Sen. Harley M. Kilgore (D.-W. Va.) says the census reveals that slightly over 10,000,000 Americans one out of every seven adults wouldn't know. He calls them "sheer or near Illiterates." He proposed $130,000,000 federal aid to help such people learn to read and write. His bill died, but educators say It la sure to come up again. What Is an Illiterate? Where do these 10,000,000 Illiterates live? Kilgore says the answers to these questions are so amazing the sit uation can only be described as a national disgrace. First, he describes Illiterates as persons without the equival ent of a fourth grade education. They can't read or, if they can, they can't understand what they read sufficiently well to function as citizens. Second, he says many of these people probably the majority of them don't live far out in the sticks, where an education is hard to come bv. And the ma jority are not foreign born, but native Americans. He gives these figures: 4.200. 000 are white people, born in this country. 3,200,000 are for eign born whites. 2,700.000 are Negroes. He says one-tenth of the 10.000,000 live In New York, 462, 000 in Illinois and 385,000 In California. Louisiana has a high er percentage of illiterates among its total population than any other state. Kilgore estimates the number at 36 per cent. Iowa has the lowest, 4.1 per cent. Dsmeeraoy W.sk.n.d There are three times as many illiterates In the country as col lege graduates, Kilgore adds. He says this weakens democracy be cause many of these people can not read the words "freedom" or "peace." Communists are aware of this situation and take full advantage of It by using only the simplest types of props garida or by making personal con tacts, the senator says. He proposed that $5,000,000 aid be given the states in 1949 to teach people to read, write, speak and understand the English lan guage, to perform elementary arithmetical computations and to understand the basic features of U. S. government. He would appropriate $10,000,000 for the teaching program In 1950, and then 115,000,000 a vear until 1957, decreasing to $5,000,000 In 1958 59. By that time, he believes, illiteracy would be eliminated In the United States. 4th Grids Dividing Lin One difficulty Is that Illiteracy! apparently hasnt been acurately defined. Most authorities agree that the 10,000,000 estimate may be wide of the true mark, one way or the other. Until 1940 the U. S. census bureau counted Illiterates merely by asking peo ple If they could read and write In any language. If they couldn.'t they were classified as Illiterate Until 1940 the census classified people by their degree of education number of years they attended school. This Is the origin of the estimate that there are 10.000,000 the fourth grade as the dividing line between literary and illiter acy. This was based on the war time experience of the Army. It found that as a general rule people with less than a fourth grade education couldn't read or obey the simplest sort of orders. Army officials say 350,000 sol diers between 21 and 45 had to "make their mark" with an X because they couldn't write their own names. Company yesterday announced an Increase of $4 a ton' on news print, effective Aug. 1. It puts the price at $100. Similar Increases have been reported by other paper manu facturers In recent days. barbecueJ GRILLS Page Lumber It Fuel 164 I. 2nd A v.. t. Ph. W Newsprint Prices Upped To $100 Ten August 1 OREGON CITY, Ore.. July 28. UP) Hawley Pulp and Paper . . m i Phona 353 119 N. 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