NEWS-REVIEW, ROSEBURG, OREGON. WEDNESDAY, JULY 28, 1948
NINE
Here's One Man Who Knows
How to Forecast Elections
By PETER EDSON
N'EA Washington Correspondent
WASHINGTON (NEA) Louis H. Bean, Department ol Agri
culture economist and statistician, has had the nerve to write a book
called' "How to Predict Elections," Just published by Knopf. He
doesn't handle the subject exactly like mystery story, with the
answer on whether It will be Dewey or Truman revealed In the
last chapter. Instead, he Rives all the clues, charts and tables on
past elections and trends. Then he leaves it up to the reader to dope
It out for himself.
Twelve years ago, Louis Bean
says he fell in love at first sight
with a half page of figures
election figures, that Is in the
World Almanac. These figures
have Jeen his hobby ever since.
That he is good can be attested
by this writer. Two years ago
he sought out Dr. Bean for a
forecast on the off-year congres
sional elections. No flat predic
tion was forthcoming. But after
looking over all the factors. Mr.
Bean made an estimate that the
Republicans would win about
twice as many seats as they need
ed to get control of both Senate
WHY PAY CASH
For Construction
Material
When You Can Buy
From Mayhew on Tim
10 Down
3 YEARS TO PAY
Stop at the Log Cabin
Coos Junction
and House.
The result was so close that It
was uncanny. The GOP needed
26 eats in the House and six
in the Senate to gain control.
Twice that was 52 and 12. What
they won was 55 and 12.
Dtmo Revival in SO's
In the last chapter of "How
to Predict Elections," Louis Bean
now takes a flyer on "1948 and
the Incoming Tide."
It Is his considered opinion
that 1947 marked the end of the
downward trend In the New Deal
tide, the beginning of a new
one. He backs this up with a
chart showing two-party power,
as measured hv Republican and
Democratic majorities In the
House for 60 years past.
Democratic peaks came In the
years 1890-92, 191214. 1932-36.
Republican peaks, lasting some
what longer, have come In the
years 1894-1904, 1920-28, and 1946
to well, what's your guess?
Author Bean's guess seems to
be that even If the Republicans
do win In 1948, the Democrats
will be due for a rise in the
1950's. After that, thev'd take
another dive In the 1960's.
For short range forecasters,
SAWDUST
SLAB WOOD
PLANER ENDS
Immediate Delivery
DENN-GERRETSEN CO.
Phono 128
402 W. Oak
Olympic Stature
t4J1
o . J ;
Joe Depietro, left, four-foot,
eight-inch Paterson, N.J.,
Olympic we ightlif ter and
seven-foot Bob Kurltnd. Phil
hps Oilers' basketball star from
Bartlesville, Oklt . represent
the extremes in Olympic st
ture. Both are champions in
their fields and will compete
in London.
people without the equivalent of
a fourth grade education.
During the war the Army used
DURABIE
AS MOUNT HOOD!
Chrystalite Tile Pumice Blocks
Officially approved by F. H. A., for outside load-bearing
walls, without furring.
Ideal for Homes, Schools,
Churches, Theaters, Commer.
rial and Industrial Construc
tion and all types of Farm
Buildings.
Manufactured Locally By
HIghwav ! 3 miles North Rosehurg Telephone S95-R-J
CHRYSTALITE TILE, INC.
All types of 6-Inch high blocks
are available. For further sav
ings, 8"x8"xl6" blocks will be
available very soon.
Bean warns that his boiling polit
ical pot must be allowed to quiet
down before brewing predictions.
He himself seems to lean to the
belief that the Republican victory
of 1946 may be of short duration.
He says one result of the third
party emergence may be the elec
tion of a Republican president
and a Democratic Congress.
Othtr 'Experts' Ditftr
Other political "experts" have
other Ideas. Author Bean Is fair
enough to cite them. Prof. Arth
ur N. Holcombe Is quoted on the
theory that whenever a party In
power loses control of Congress
in off-year elections. It also loses
the presidency In the next elec
tion. This happened In 1882, 1890,
1894, 1910, 1918, 1930.
Prof. Arthur M. Schleslnger,
Sr.. of Harvard, is Quoted on his
theory that periods of liberalism
are followed by periods of conser
vatism, each lasting from 15 to
18 years. Under this theory, the
16-year period of New Deal liber
alism lasting from 1931 to 194T
would normally be followed by a
period of conservatism lasting
; from 1947 to approximately 1963.
Assuming no recession comes
m 1948 49, statistician Bean
charts a possible alternate course
to that of Schelesinger. If a de
pression should hit somewhere
about 1952, Bean saya that the
Democrats or their equivalents
or successors would dominate
the U. S. political scene during
the last half of the 1950's.
All this speculation Is pretty
much of a mental exercise with
statistics. Bean says he has given
no consideration to personalities.
He thereby admits the same kind
of error that political bosses do
when they talk personalities and
political movement without facts
and figures.
Bill Proposes $130 Million Federal
Aid to Help Ten Million Illiterates
By ROBERT E. GEIGER .
WASHINGTON Would you know what to do If you saw a sign
that said "Explosives Keep Away"? Or "Poison For External Use
Only"?
Sen. Harley M. Kilgore (D.-W. Va.) says the census reveals that
slightly over 10,000,000 Americans one out of every seven adults
wouldn't know. He calls them "sheer or near Illiterates." He proposed
$130,000,000 federal aid to help such people learn to read and write.
His bill died, but educators say It la sure to come up again.
What Is an Illiterate? Where
do these 10,000,000 Illiterates live?
Kilgore says the answers to these
questions are so amazing the sit
uation can only be described as
a national disgrace.
First, he describes Illiterates
as persons without the equival
ent of a fourth grade education.
They can't read or, if they can,
they can't understand what they
read sufficiently well to function
as citizens.
Second, he says many of these
people probably the majority of
them don't live far out in the
sticks, where an education is
hard to come bv. And the ma
jority are not foreign born, but
native Americans.
He gives these figures: 4.200.
000 are white people, born in
this country. 3,200,000 are for
eign born whites. 2,700.000 are
Negroes. He says one-tenth of the
10.000,000 live In New York, 462,
000 in Illinois and 385,000 In
California. Louisiana has a high
er percentage of illiterates
among its total population than
any other state. Kilgore estimates
the number at 36 per cent. Iowa
has the lowest, 4.1 per cent.
Dsmeeraoy W.sk.n.d
There are three times as many
illiterates In the country as col
lege graduates, Kilgore adds. He
says this weakens democracy be
cause many of these people can
not read the words "freedom"
or "peace." Communists are
aware of this situation and take
full advantage of It by using
only the simplest types of props
garida or by making personal con
tacts, the senator says.
He proposed that $5,000,000 aid
be given the states in 1949 to
teach people to read, write, speak
and understand the English lan
guage, to perform elementary
arithmetical computations and
to understand the basic features
of U. S. government. He would
appropriate $10,000,000 for the
teaching program In 1950, and
then 115,000,000 a vear until 1957,
decreasing to $5,000,000 In 1958
59. By that time, he believes,
illiteracy would be eliminated In
the United States.
4th Grids Dividing Lin
One difficulty Is that Illiteracy!
apparently hasnt been acurately
defined. Most authorities agree
that the 10,000,000 estimate may
be wide of the true mark, one
way or the other. Until 1940
the U. S. census bureau counted
Illiterates merely by asking peo
ple If they could read and write
In any language. If they couldn.'t
they were classified as Illiterate
Until 1940 the census classified
people by their degree of education
number of years they attended
school. This Is the origin of the
estimate that there are 10.000,000
the fourth grade as the dividing
line between literary and illiter
acy. This was based on the war
time experience of the Army.
It found that as a general rule
people with less than a fourth
grade education couldn't read or
obey the simplest sort of orders.
Army officials say 350,000 sol
diers between 21 and 45 had to
"make their mark" with an X
because they couldn't write their
own names.
Company yesterday announced
an Increase of $4 a ton' on news
print, effective Aug. 1. It puts
the price at $100.
Similar Increases have been
reported by other paper manu
facturers In recent days.
barbecueJ
GRILLS
Page Lumber It Fuel
164 I. 2nd A v.. t. Ph. W
Newsprint Prices Upped
To $100 Ten August 1
OREGON CITY, Ore.. July 28.
UP) Hawley Pulp and Paper
. . m i
Phona 353
119 N. Stephens
'
rirtiTinsM
III
'ill
A FAVORITE KENTUCKY
BRAND IS AVAILABLE
AGAIN I
asrnV
4
TO30
tm ft NT
$360
U l QT.
Sunny Brook.
Kentucky Whisk.y-A Blend
Enjoy the whiskey thats
CAlUflfrJL ft (to tf&MU
ffStlonsI OistilUrTTtoducts CofpotstlssTNtw Yors.86 ProM-65 Gnln Nsutril Spirits
o
nnn nnrarsn nnn
11 " II "l i o i I I I
ULiuaiJuaLLUiau u
on famous
economical
V'-iss-sr w
Traitor Truck
94 Mills
Hay
Pn Vtr.trt
Ptrtabl taws
Pumps loraytn
lilf Cuttan
LMfint
llccrrif Uftrtn
Saw Mill
. . . lM tKltt
Nwit vtttil 9i4
ra-kuttfiflff of yf
tptftttlrtl unlit.
145 h.B. MS OKU1
0lin Html-,
That rithtf Immediitt delivery f No wi
ing when you order a fa mom Waukes
Motor from Robert. Waukesha Motors ha
long been noted for smooth, dependable, to
cost operation. 20 h p. to 220 h p. usi
standard internal combustion fuels . . . ther
Waukesha Motor to meet every power i
quirement. complete with clutch and pow
take-on. Comes with radiator and sheet me
enclosure or can be built into your pow
equipment. Roberts stock a complete line
parts... have an experienced staff to ham
your installation.
WAIT! or PHONI tAtt 3195
WHEN YOU NEID AN EXTRA SUPPLY
OF HOT WATER
V
just push t h t 3ooster 3ufton
This xclutlvt, sensational
ouse
Feature Is the greatest im
provement in Hot Water
Service in years I
Whem heavy washdays loom; or
week-end guests arrive, just push tht
BOOSTER BUTTON. In a few hour
the tank's full of extra-hot water:
Mix this with cold water while using
and you get gallont mot usable hot
wster over and above your normal
requirements from the tame the
heater. What a joy to have all tht hot
water you want, when you want it See,
today, these marvelous water heaters.
m
y&filOeMtiKfbm
MORI hot water for extra needt:
MOM hot water from ererr tankful,
MOl hot water at lest cost.
MOM years of terviet longer lifti'
OUICKIT A NO IAIIIY INSTAUID ANY Ft A CI IN YOUR HOMI
TROWBRIDGE ELECTRIC
136 N. Jackson phone 201
Western
Emttt Tubb
Forevtr Is Ending Today
Thot Wild end Wicked
Look in Your Eye
till Boyd
Pull Down the Shades
and Lock the Door
Monterey Polka
Smiley Burntttt
It's My Laiy Doy
Hominy Grits
Popular
Kay Kystr
Woody Woodpecker
Song
When Veronica Ploys
the Hormoniea
Fred Ltwtry
Indian Love Call
I Love Ycu Truly
Spikt Jones
William Tell Overture
Man on the Flying
Traptie
Classical
Jtnnttn Symphony of Los
Angtltt
Theme from "Laura"
Scherio
Marian Anderson
Avt Mario
Aufentholt
Children's
Danny Kay
The Little Fiddle
Sent Ktllty
Peter Robbit
lame at tht Circus
' MUSIC SHOP
"Evrything in Murll"
305 N. Jackson Phone 90S
PRE-
WHITE
SHIRTS
Why pay fivt clams for a
white shirt whtn GIU
kty't have 'am (in sites
IS and
15'i)
for only
m fin iihi
2.25
Portable Telephone
with case, generator, phone end AATA
connection. Rig your own phone XX
lines for
This Is another big Gilkey Sale ... but it isn't a
month-end salt, nor a Fall Cltaranct, nor an "over
stocked" sale ... so we decided it'll be a PRE-FIRE
SALE! Hurry to Gilkey't BEFORE the fire and buy!
A PRE-FIRE
SALE SPECIAL!
SPORT SHIRTS The
hottest patterns In town.
What's your f f
siie? We've l J
got it! Each
RUBBER BOATS
GET A-HEAD
... a cool head in Marine
Corps Sun Helmet.
Each
98c
S-man rubber boats, famous
with fishermen. War Su
COMPLETE
:z 4500
MOCCASINS
DRESS OXFORDS
These will wear sa long you'll gtt tlrtd of
looking at them. Sa art wt! OOP
Teke 'em away for (J JJ
MEN!
Ona for each foot In Roseburg
Good leather Jobs
a
Good leather jobs jk aft
gnd only, pair 0e7
THE BARGAIN OF THE CENTURY . . .
War Surplus back up and fog lights. These
ere equipped with black-out shields which
may be removed. Thtst normally retail for
tbout bucks ttch BUT A AA
GILKEY'S SELL THEM J Ult
FOR 1 W ptir
LREY'S
S23 N. tackton
Phone 803 L
I.-";;?
it
11
V.