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About The nugget. (Sisters, Or.) 1994-current | View Entire Issue (Feb. 1, 2017)
Wednesday, February 1, 2017 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon 19 Climatepreportpshowspstatepstillpwarming,pdespitepfrigidpwinter By Mark Floyd Correspondent CORVALLIS – Don’t let this winter fool you. Oregon’s climate continues to warm; there are impacts on the state’s physical, bio- logical and human-managed systems; and more studies are pointing to greenhouse gas emissions as the reason for these climate trends and events. That is the conclusion of the third Oregon Climate Assessment Report, a syn- thesis of peer-reviewed sci- entific studies over the past three years. The legislatively mandated report was pro- duced by the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University and is being presented this month to key Oregon politi- cal leaders. “Oregonians shouldn’t be swayed by this winter, which is colder than any of the ones we’ve had since 1990,” noted Philip Mote, director of the OSU cen- ter and a co-author on the report. “Overall, tempera- tures are still getting warmer – in Oregon, throughout the United States, and globally – and the impacts are very real. “For Oregonians, it means warmer temperatures, lower snowpack and less water dur- ing the summer. And more and more studies are con- firming greenhouse gas emis- sions as the cause.” Kathie Dello, associ- ate director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, points out that although December of 2016 was the 11th cold- est December on record in Oregon in 122 years of monitoring, the year was still among the top 10 warmest years on record for the state. The climate assess- ment report, led by Meghan Dalton, a research assis- tant with the institute in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at OSU, looked at more than 300 studies published from 2013-16 by research- ers at universities, state and federal agencies, and else- where. Dalton led a team of researchers who synthesized the literature and developed the report. “The year 2015 has been described as foreshadowing what we can expect as normal conditions by the mid-21st century,” Dalton said. “There were warmer temperatures that led to drought, low snowpack, and greater wild- fire risk, with less water in the summer. That appears to be our future.” Snowpack in the past three years has varied greatly, according to Dello. “In 2015, we basically had no snow to speak of,” Dello said. “In 2016, we had a lot of snow, but most of it got wiped out by warm tempera- tures in late winter and early spring. So far this year, we have had a lot of snow, but warmer temperatures are moving in, and we still have a lot of winter left. We’re cautiously optimistic. Large year-to-year changes like that are still expected, even in a warming climate.” The report notes that a warming climate and earlier spring may have a few ben- eficial results. Farmers, for example, may benefit from a longer growing season, though water could be an issue for some crops. The report analyzes potential impacts of climate change for Oregon’s many regions. Among the findings: • The Oregon Coast: Sea level rise will increase the risk of erosion and flooding and higher estuary temperatures will challenge migrating salmon and steelhead. One study estimated that warm- ing of Yaquina Bay by 1.3 to 2.9 degrees (F) would result in 40 additional days of temperatures not meet- ing the criteria for protecting salmonids. • The Willamette Valley: Heat waves are expected to become longer, more com- mon and more intense; oper- ating rules for reservoirs may have to change to bal- ance flood risk and summer water supply; air quality will decline, and wildfire risk will increase. A study of fire activity concluded that there will be a three-fold to nine- fold increase in the amount of area burned in the basin by the year 2100. • The Cascade Mountains: More precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, with elevations between 3,000 feet and 6,000 feet being the most sensitive. In addi- tion to potential impacts on ski resorts, there likely will be a change in when water is available. Cascades for- ests will probably be subject to more wildfire, drought, insect damage and disease, and some studies suggest that woodlands will shift from predominantly coni- fer to mixed-conifer forests. The risk of increased inci- dence of respiratory illness from wildfire smoke is a top public-health risk in Jackson County. • Eastern Oregon: Water will be a huge issue in the east with snowpack decline, and the same forest issues face the Blue Mountains as the Cascades. Increased wildfire risk may create more days of heavy smoke affecting public health, and fires will threaten the for- ests. Salmon in the John Day basin and other river systems will be challenged with warmer temperatures, and rangeland and sage- brush habitat is threatened by non-native weeds and grasses. “A lot of the studies we cited focus on the physi- cal aspects of warming, from snowpack to wildfire, but there are a lot of people who will be affected,” Dello said. “We can’t forget that Oregonians, their families, their jobs and their resources are at risk. There is still time to do something, but time is running short.” A copy of the report is available at http://occri.net/. Please Connect Your Ray’s All Access Rewards Program Account to Furry Friends Foundation It’s FREE and we get 1% back on your purchases. It’s an easy and great way to donate! 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