Wednesday, February 1, 2017 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
19
Climatepreportpshowspstatepstillpwarming,pdespitepfrigidpwinter
By Mark Floyd
Correspondent
CORVALLIS – Don’t
let this winter fool you.
Oregon’s climate continues
to warm; there are impacts
on the state’s physical, bio-
logical and human-managed
systems; and more studies
are pointing to greenhouse
gas emissions as the reason
for these climate trends and
events.
That is the conclusion of
the third Oregon Climate
Assessment Report, a syn-
thesis of peer-reviewed sci-
entific studies over the past
three years. The legislatively
mandated report was pro-
duced by the Oregon Climate
Change Research Institute
at Oregon State University
and is being presented this
month to key Oregon politi-
cal leaders.
“Oregonians shouldn’t
be swayed by this winter,
which is colder than any of
the ones we’ve had since
1990,” noted Philip Mote,
director of the OSU cen-
ter and a co-author on the
report. “Overall, tempera-
tures are still getting warmer
– in Oregon, throughout the
United States, and globally –
and the impacts are very real.
“For Oregonians, it means
warmer temperatures, lower
snowpack and less water dur-
ing the summer. And more
and more studies are con-
firming greenhouse gas emis-
sions as the cause.”
Kathie Dello, associ-
ate director of the Oregon
Climate Change Research
Institute, points out that
although December of
2016 was the 11th cold-
est December on record
in Oregon in 122 years of
monitoring, the year was still
among the top 10 warmest
years on record for the state.
The climate assess-
ment report, led by Meghan
Dalton, a research assis-
tant with the institute in the
College of Earth, Ocean,
and Atmospheric Sciences
at OSU, looked at more
than 300 studies published
from 2013-16 by research-
ers at universities, state and
federal agencies, and else-
where. Dalton led a team of
researchers who synthesized
the literature and developed
the report.
“The year 2015 has been
described as foreshadowing
what we can expect as normal
conditions by the mid-21st
century,” Dalton said. “There
were warmer temperatures
that led to drought, low
snowpack, and greater wild-
fire risk, with less water in
the summer. That appears to
be our future.”
Snowpack in the past
three years has varied greatly,
according to Dello.
“In 2015, we basically had
no snow to speak of,” Dello
said. “In 2016, we had a lot
of snow, but most of it got
wiped out by warm tempera-
tures in late winter and early
spring. So far this year, we
have had a lot of snow, but
warmer temperatures are
moving in, and we still have
a lot of winter left. We’re
cautiously optimistic. Large
year-to-year changes like that
are still expected, even in a
warming climate.”
The report notes that a
warming climate and earlier
spring may have a few ben-
eficial results. Farmers, for
example, may benefit from
a longer growing season,
though water could be an
issue for some crops.
The report analyzes
potential impacts of climate
change for Oregon’s many
regions. Among the findings:
• The Oregon Coast: Sea
level rise will increase the risk
of erosion and flooding and
higher estuary temperatures
will challenge migrating
salmon and steelhead. One
study estimated that warm-
ing of Yaquina Bay by 1.3
to 2.9 degrees (F) would
result in 40 additional days
of temperatures not meet-
ing the criteria for protecting
salmonids.
• The Willamette Valley:
Heat waves are expected to
become longer, more com-
mon and more intense; oper-
ating rules for reservoirs
may have to change to bal-
ance flood risk and summer
water supply; air quality will
decline, and wildfire risk
will increase. A study of fire
activity concluded that there
will be a three-fold to nine-
fold increase in the amount
of area burned in the basin by
the year 2100.
• The Cascade Mountains:
More precipitation will fall
as rain instead of snow, with
elevations between 3,000
feet and 6,000 feet being
the most sensitive. In addi-
tion to potential impacts on
ski resorts, there likely will
be a change in when water
is available. Cascades for-
ests will probably be subject
to more wildfire, drought,
insect damage and disease,
and some studies suggest
that woodlands will shift
from predominantly coni-
fer to mixed-conifer forests.
The risk of increased inci-
dence of respiratory illness
from wildfire smoke is a top
public-health risk in Jackson
County.
• Eastern Oregon: Water
will be a huge issue in the
east with snowpack decline,
and the same forest issues
face the Blue Mountains
as the Cascades. Increased
wildfire risk may create
more days of heavy smoke
affecting public health, and
fires will threaten the for-
ests. Salmon in the John
Day basin and other river
systems will be challenged
with warmer temperatures,
and rangeland and sage-
brush habitat is threatened
by non-native weeds and
grasses.
“A lot of the studies we
cited focus on the physi-
cal aspects of warming,
from snowpack to wildfire,
but there are a lot of people
who will be affected,” Dello
said. “We can’t forget that
Oregonians, their families,
their jobs and their resources
are at risk. There is still time
to do something, but time is
running short.”
A copy of the report is
available at http://occri.net/.
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