OUR BIG DEFENSE GAMBLE
US. Hopes To Bypass Missile Need
Editor's Note: Recent decisions
on what weapons the United States
should build have been clouded
by differences with our allies or
among the military services, mm
tary analyst Ray Cromley set out
to discover the strategic thinking
behind the decisions to shelve
Skybolt and postpone action on
the Nike Zeus anti-missile system
and the RS70 reconnaissance
strike plane. What he found is
told in an important three-part
series which begins here.
By COL. RAY CROMLEY
Newspaper Enterprise
Military Analyst
;WASHINGTON (NEA - Presi
dent Kennedy and Defense Sec
retary McNamara have decided
to take the calculated risk that
we are so far ahead in intercon
tinental ballistic missiles, that the
Communists won't dare start an
all-out nuclear war in the next
10 years.
They are gambling, too, that
within that decade Nikita Khrush
chev will not have an adequate
anti-missile defense operating nor
an effective way to knock out
Polaris submarines.
This is the reasoning behind the
Defense Department decision to
shelve the Skybolt ana to post
pone decisions on building the
big RS70 intercontinental plane
and the Nike Zeus anti-ICBM sys
tem, as learned in two weeks of
interviews with key military
men, diplomats ana scienusis
from the Defense and Slate De
oartmenls and private defense
industry.
The U.S. defense planners are
committed to the further gam
ble that within the 10-year period
U.S. scientists will make the ma
jor breakthroughs necessary to
leapfrog to intercontinental weap
ons and equipment concepts which
will plug the dcfense-oflense loop
holes for many years to follow.
. Behind these gambles are a
number of factors.
The White House has ordered
something cut from the growing
defense budget to accommodate
a tax reduction. McNamara wants
to spend as much as possible on
conventional warfare. Ranking
Pentagon' scientists believe Nike
Zeus, Skybolt and the RS70, as
today conceived, will be obsolete
"too quickly."
Key Pentagon planners now be
lieve the decision to huild an anti
ICBM system should be put off for
three years, that some new way
should be evolved to do the Sky
bolt job and some new system
to do the fiS70 reconnaissance-
ttrike task.
The scientists consider it likely
that the research, development,
construction and full emplace
ment of such new systems would
not be completed in less than 10
years.
If this gamble proves wrong
and there is an all-out nuclear war
within the next 10 years, the
United States will find itself with
major loopholes in its defense and
offense.
Loophole 1 We'll he naked for
10 years against any ICBMs the
Russians fire.
Loophole 2 We'll have dnly a
limited ability to lob ballistic mis
siles into the Soviet Union from
a wide variety of unexpected an
gles and directions.
With a perfected Skybolt, inter
continental bombers could fire
these missiles from a range of
heights and from any direction
unexpectedly. The system thus
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NIKE ZEUS Second best
or better than nothing?
would force the Russians to build
their defense to cover all direc
tions and a wide variety of pos
sible trajectories.
In contrast, the Minutcman, Ti
tan and Atlas missiles would be
fired from fixed bases. These mis
siles would approach target on
fixed trajectories which the Rus
sians could calculate in advance.
Through Polaris subs do not oper
ate from fixed sites and trajecto
ries therefore cannot be precisely
known, the limited numher of
areas feasible for operating Polar
is submarines against Russia docs
limit surprise in missile direc
tion and arc. Therefore, eliminat
ing Skybolt makes it possible for
the Russians to have a simpler
and more effective system of anti
missile defenses.
Loophole Z We will have a
limited and ineffective reconnais
sance-strike ability a few years
from now. In major war, this
would be a very serious matter
Once the first exchange of
ICBMs was completed, some way
would be needed to assess what
largeLs had been destroyed, to
find what major targets remained
and hit them fast. Lacking this
iibility is rather like fighting a
war blindfolded. This is the mis
sion intended for the RS70.
Skybolt, Nike Zeus and the RS70
all have technical problems,
With Skybolt, it's the problem
of how vou fire a ballistic mis
sile at a precise target 1,000 miles
way from a moving airplane
which may not be flying smooth
ly and whose precise location and
altitude you may not have at
the exact second you are firing
the missile.
With Nike Zeus it's the problem
of developing a radar that would
not be fooled by a flock of sophis
ticated Sqvict electronic decoys
;ind a command and control sys
tem that would not be knocked
out cither by the Nike Zeus mis
sile itself or by a high-exploding
enemy ICBM.
With the RS70. It's the problem
of designing a plane with a much
longer range and an electronic
sensing and viewing system so
designed that crewmen could find
targets of opportunity, recognize
them, evaluate them and act
fast enough to bomb before the
plane whizzes too far past the
target.
The scientists and military men
who spoke for these systems ar
gued that these problems could
be solved fairly well, that no
weapon is perfect and that the
defense-offense loopholes had bet
ter be filled with the kind of
weapons we could begin building
now with today's knowledge.
The men who spoke against the
Nike Zeus, Skybolt and the RS70
said they would cost too much
as presently conceived, that they
wouldn't do a good enough job
and that they would be obsolete
too soon.
So the decision has been taken
to gamble and continue the research.
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PAGE -B
HERALD AND NEWS, Klamath Falls, Ore.
Thursday, January 17, IMS
Buildings Started At OSU
Two new buildings a Radiation
Center and an Oceanography
Building are expected to be start
ed this month at Oregon State Uni
versity, setting the stage for sig
nificant future advances in these
two important new teaching and
research fields.
Bids for the structures were
opened this week. Both are expect-i
ed to be finished in about a year.
James H. Jensen, president, said,
and both will be built in large part
with federal grants.
The Radiation Center will be a'
$735,280 building, especially de
signed for a wide range of radia
tion studies involving a large num
ber of scientists from several de
partments. Dr. C. H. Wang is di
rector of the Radiation Center
which will be built on the west
edge of the campus.
The $666,500 Oceanography
Building represents another mile
stone in the rapid growth of OSU
ocean studies. Almost no research
has been done on the ocean off
Oregon before OSU launched its
work in 1954. Now, the Oregon
State Department of Oceanogra
phy is becoming one ot America s
leaders, Jensen said. Dr. Wayne
V. Burt is head of the Oceanogra
phy Department.
SKYBOLT Is this weapon too tough to be perfect?
LONG RANGE RS70 This plane with electronic sensing can be a completely new
system of defense or possibly a major offensive loophole.
When you think of Building in the Basin,
m TL1-I. .1 D in R,.ilii
THIS
WEEK'S
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He is our yard foreman. This week he
offers vou his special:
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Boards as low os Per M Mm
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Lewis A. Vincent, general manag
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Father Pamien, who gave hi:
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