Atmosphere for
By DONALD H. Mv
Unittd Pres International
Washington- (UPD -On Julv
16. 1945, the first atomic
bomb was exploded in the
desert at Alamagordo, N.M
The Ruclear age began, and
with it man's efforts to avoid
nuclear destruction.
Since then the United
States has set off at least 256
more nuclear devices; Russia
at least 125; Britain 21 and
France 5. And since then the
United States, Britain and
Russia have held hundreds of
negotiating sessions - in Ge
neva, Moscow, New York and
Wasbington-for a treaty to
Dan future weapons tests.
These three powers are
meeting in high level talks in
Moscow for another try. For
a change, the atmosphere for
some success is more favor
able but no sane person
would attempt to predict the
outcome.
Has Been Oscured
Over the years, the test
ban search has often been ob
scured to the public by scien
tific technicalities like "Seis
mic magnitude 4.75," by bald
faced platitudes from states
men, by 18- nation confer
ences and three-nation confer
ences, by radiation scares, by
DO-IT-YOURSELF'S VALUE NOT COUNTED
We now have a road opening up some of the woods
behind our country home for the first time since the original
settlers cleared the land. It cost "nothing." My do-it-yourself
husband simply got on his 1962-bought bulldozer, his
1960-bought tractor and those other mechanical monsters he
keeps in self-built sheds around here and moved earth, rocks,
brush and trees until a road emerged.
Had he hired men to clear the road, the cost would have
run into hundreds of dollars and what he spent would have
duly added to our nation's total output of goods and services
(Gross National Product). But since Summer Collins did it
entirely on his own with machines bought in the past and
paid no one, nothing counts. Neither the new road nor the
value it adds to our property will show up anywhere in any
statistical measurement of U.S. production in 1963.
A friend a few miles away invited us last week end to
the "inaugural" of his new bar a sturdy, handsomely de
signed, beautifully finished thing. It cost next to nothing,
for he's another week end do-it-yourself fanatic with sheds
loaded with tools and he built the bar with tender loving
care, permitted no one to help. I
Had he bought that bar, he would have spent a minimum
of $500 and this would have duly added to GNP in 1963.
As it is, the only dollars that will be counted are the few
he spent on wood, nails, varnish, the like.
This is the peak do-il-yourelf season when tens of mil
lions of men and women from coast to coast are finding
their substitute for a psychiatrist's couch in the use of
their leisure hours to create things ranging from an ash
tray to an extra wing on the house. These are the weeks,
therefore, when the distortions and inadequacies in our
calculations of GNP are highlighted.
If you hire a carpenter to build a new room for you,
your entire bill will swell GNP. If you build this new room
yourself, only what you send for materials and tools will
-be counted. Your labor doesn't count although labor is by
far the biggest cost in most projects today.
How grossly are we understanding our GNP because
of this ommission? A recent estimate by Stanford professor
Karl Brandt, a member of the Council of Economic Ad
visers during President Eisenhower's administration, is that
we may be understating it by as much as 20 per cent a year.
This would hike GNP right now to well above $590 billion,
j .u;, j..r.'t tair intn ronsideration how much bigger
auu una uvjv. jii ....
GNP would be today if we
labor in the past.
a i. nf rfonaripe ann this
The Department of Commerce was just starting to calculate
t.;i PrnHnri (it wasn't until 1947 that the govern-
men began publishing the estimates every quarter), and it
oii.ninto as much cuesswork as possible, ine
j. i, . uniircnif mFnt was
busy filling shortages pent up
time, not leisure time, dominaiea our sui.iei.jr.
But do-it-yourself now is a way of life. The leisure
time workshop is commonplace in millions of homes. The
investments of the American public in do-it-yourself ma
chines and tools run into enormous sums, and great in
dustries have come into being because the do-it-yourselfer
knuaf eaulDmeni.
Moreover, do-it-yourselfers will add even more to the
nation's output in the yearsahead. As the workweek shortens
and vacations lengthen, tms increasingly v....
and his hobby. .
Perhaps excluding from GNP totals the services that
tens of millions of housewives perform within their homes
must be tolerated because a dollar figure cannot be placed
on the housewife's production. But with computers and new
techniques to help us gather statistical data, excluding the
value of the do-it-yourself's labor is no longer tolerable. The
billions of dollars they contribute to GNP are real, can be
seen, can be felt.
What I wrote years ago on this is more valid today than
ever. Not even trying to make a guss on the do-it-yourselfer's
contribution "is like pretending the foundation of a house
is the whole house."
I TAR
-Br CLAY
X Vow Doilr AdMtv it
' According lo Iht Storf. '
To develop message for Friday,
reod words corresponding to numbers
lf 5.15-26-37
otyourlodioc Birth sign.
(6:
uutul
AMI 21
tYour
31
2 Don't
3 Toko
5 H
6 Outlook
7 Should.
SYour
oPeeeo
lOTrovol
II Bag
12Sun.i0
13 Fvsonolity
14 Making
15 It's
16 A
170
ISA-OL
logo
20 And
21 Is
22Cono"os
23 lodKalw
2ACHenm
25Som
26 Actn
27 B'o9
23 wml
29 Or
32Ell
33Fmnd
34lov
35 And
36 Ne
37 You
38 Sell
39 For
V MAY II
irS5AMB-7a
Hj7&77-84-8a
OU4M
MAYS
JUNES
40
Pour
.' A.01JMS
4 1
42lo
43 For
44 (nod
45Polm
46 Ci.hoofs
47 nil
CAHCIt
JtMS
JULY a
S2
11-14-25J6J
41
49
50 Hoi
uo
51 Woo
52 o.wfeU
SSMsmoI
54Nt
54 01
57 Romonet
5? Vr
50 F-
5-Auaa
10-22-33-44
veoo
30 Al
o0rttf
GoJ
: M9-30-41
:?V52-f4-73
Pickets, by people sailing in
tiny boats in protest into
ocean test zones, and by a
running debate in American
politics over whether it is
worthwhile at all.
To begin sorting out the
confusion-what would a test
ban mean to the world?
Ending weapons tests would
not remove the danger of nu
clear war. Russia and the
United States would still pos
sess enough nuclear weapons
to incinerate each other and
most of the northern hemis
phere. But it would be a start to
ward the far more difficult
goal of nuclear disarmament.
It would reduce the danger of
more terrible weapons being
found, or a sudden upset in
the balance of power which
might cause a panic war. It
would reduce world fears of
radiation fallout.
Stop Other Nations
Most important-in the eyes
of its proponents-it might
stop other nations from de
veloping nuclear weapons of
their own. A dozen countries
now possess the Industrial and
scientific bases to become nu
clear powers in relatively few
years if they want to.
France, though it exploded
Your Money's
Worth
By SYLVIA PORTER
Copyright, Hall Syndicate, Inc.
had been counting do-it-yourself
ommission was understandable.
in its infancy. The U.S. was so
during World War II that over
GA2ER
R. POIXAN-
4
scom
Prollfi
61 Rtfrtsh
62 Rwoirs
630.1
64 Monty
66 Looks
66PfOOle
67 AM
68Ch.ldrn
69PC
OCT.
NOV.
1 101i 0S
LiA.589 Si
lAOrtTAIUUS
NOV. ,
net a r
OFufuro
2.1B.20-4Cevi
Outlining 71 You
72 Fumishinl
73Dov
74 buly
75 And
76tM
77Aorr
78 PnwH
DEC 21
JAM
H2-23.34'C4
mom
Automobile 79Fowwly
157-67-79-86
MYour
J'5-orr
:o
83 Rocrskftien
84 Your
15 AttfMorl
87 Hocfeos
88 Hord
89 Fit
LAN. II
ra.
9-20-31 -2V
k5-56-a0-88
mat
ftl )Jo
00 No
AdVent sfcrd
4-17-28-39 T
W-62-72
Some Success
its first nuclear device in the
Sahara in February, 1960,
still is in the process of turn
ing this capability into a nu
clear weapons system usable
in war. Red China is working
toward where France was in
1960.
A test ban would be signed
at first only by the United
States, Britain and Russia.
These states would then try
to persuade France and other
nuclear powers as they come
along to join.
If one relused the ban
would be technically void.
Whether France or Red
China could be persuaded is
one of the unsolved, and
largely unfaced, problems of
diplomacy. But it is the con
cept of nuclear bombs in the
hands of a multiplicity of
countries-some irresponsible
that test ban proponents see
as their strongest argument.
Series of Protests
For the first four years aft
er that day in July, 1945,
when the fateful mushroom
clour rose over Alamagordo,
the test ban movement was
largely a series of protests
and demonstrations by wor
ried scientists and various or
ganizations, many of them
Communist inspired against
further U. S. development of
atomic weapons.
Responding to some of
these pressures, the United
States offered in the United
Nations in 1946 the "Baruch
plan" for international con
trol and inspection of atomic
energy. Russia rejected it.
On Aug. 29, 1949, Russia
tested her own first nuclear
weapon which stolen Ameri
can secrets helped to fashion,
and the problem became one
not of U. S. tests but of an
arms race.
During the next few years
test ban was a generally
minor feature in inconclusive
disarmament overtures be
tween the United States and
Russia. Often it was not
proposal by itself but part of
visionary schemes for control
of atomic weapons as such.
Began Chain of Events
It was a series of U. S., Rus
sian and British tests in 1957
and resulting anti - nuclear
clamor that began the train
of events leading to the cur
rent Moscow talks.
It began through the back
door of a "moratorium." On
March 31, 1958, a few days
after Nikita S. Khrushchev
became Premier, Russia an
nounced it would conduct no
further nuclear tests if others
would follow suit.
The offer posed an immense
problem for the United
BeNi SEAFOOD & POULTRY 1
nounced it would conduct no isJv. MJC Y1 A$5ll - I ITII U II 4jW . I
further nuclear tests if others ffi vf1JiffiV -y0M ' t. TV1 1 IM I
WOTteoeWPo'ani WW ' e,t Phone 773-8497 I
I x a, UtU M. "jlkf I- Uji' w '" ' I
(M-t ;k$ fcfsi not mn& . .. tim. W jiiLi J0 r- Jr-SX' Nsl4sh. s,4H Vfi t'4 f'1fl J ? . w . J
m m ss v m u ( u ft H fcs
CSST r-i r-n -n i v U. " I
rrrTT' e i i i i i 4 ? 1 r 1 i v ?v 1
Rut fpz r7 m vx
-Ka pt z k5-v jszr ? nn '
yjr 6'" I a;iniii ini""-tf. J'.'KTT "'sissssio " sW
ht nf $ itii m WZ 'ci iFfer W vii, .? S m - J
i u. W ?T. : a? a ?-r - m id irTTh.-f
1 I ll" II v':- 'f: ' '- ll" J 1 -'frL J-t-t- '- -- - -
MEDFORD
States. If it refrained from
tests and took Russia's word
on the Soviet moratorium,
how would it ever know Rus
sia was keeping the bargain?
Nuclear detection was still an
infant science.
Respond In Letter
On Apriil 8, 1958, President
Eisenhower responded in a
letter to Khrushchev, propos
ing joint scientific study of
methods of international in
spection against secret tests.
That July technicians from
Russia, the United States,
Britain, France, Canada. Po
land, Czechoslovakia and Ro
mania opened a "conference
of experts" in Geneva. The
conference reported that nu
clear test inspection was
technically possible, with a
network of 180 monitoring
stations spread around the
world.
Test ban talks were sched
uled to open on the political
level in Geneva on Oct. 31,
1958. Two months before this
Eisenhower agreed to a one
year moratorium on U. S.
tests to begin on that date.
There followed a furious
round of both U. S. and Soviet
testing to get in under the
deadline.
The 1958 Geneva talks
quickly found the basic stick
ing point that was to lie nt
the bottom of the test ban
deadlock for five long years.
The U. S. insisted on on-site
inspection against cheating
TheyTl Do It Every
On A SPEEDIW&
TRAIN EVERY
TOWN, CITY
AND SUBURB
MAS ALL klNDS
OP SIGNS TO
TELL VOU
JUST WHAT
BAILIWICK
VOU'RE PASSIN6
THROUGH""
jjjr- " --stt- oysters r " 73C I
IR.it let the sleeper Ts.iikl Q piSH Frcsn Ranch Eggs riwirn net ftc I
UWffiffl & Pou',r,-Daily! ---4 $100
ssB i 4 IS- . j'nr,WJ i, ss I TQKir I ssTaaM wm m AWgm - H
MAIL TRIBUNE, MEDFORD,
in Nuclear Test Talks
Russia said any international
inspection on Soviet soil
would permit espionage.
Intricate Maneuvering
All the intricate maneuver
ing in test ban negotiations
since then, covering thou
sands of pages of transcript,
has been a matter of endless
variations on this main theme.
Since tests in various envir-
onments-the atmosphere, un
derground, under water and
in space - can be detected
with varying degrees of ac
curacy, proposals were made
several times for a limited
ban on those which could be
detected without inspection
on Soviet soil.
The United States proposed
such partial test bans in April,
1959, and February, 1960.
Russia proposed one in
March, 1960.
One ban throughout the
Geneva talks was the fact
that while the politicians
were talking about inspec
tion, the technology of in
spection was still stumbling
along trying to keep up.
In 1959 U.S. scientists at
Geneva suddenly said some
of their earlier figures had
been in error and that inspec
tion required more machinery
than they had told the Rus
sians. The Russians charged
bad faith, one of many such
charges during the talks.
Overhears Broadcast
So matters went until Aug.
30, 1961, when an alert U.S.
Tune
""'""" Flounder lb. 59c whoe . TrImma(Jt m m
-- TSTrrnTf Rock cod ib. 49c Fi.h Sv lnTh fiy
7&f 1&jmi3jj. slepT C tJtf HALIBUT
fl TZP' 2jT3 Fresh Cut CQfi 10 '
i. tyP LlAnl r.'L M inTl" DRATBURG CM SmSSZ?. Slices - W" Ik. Fill.. lBlb.
y.iAOAXJVV ,n J TFT na ri IPqat CSfSX EPFC.M PACIFIC Extra 4A
OREGON
Radio Monitor overheard a
small piece of a Soviet broad
cast from Moscow to Eastern
Russia.
A Soviet commentator was
expounding the reasons for "a
decision" he said Russia had
reached on nuclear testing. A
few hours later Russia an
nounced she was resuming
tests. On Sept. 1 they began.
It was clear Russia had been
preparing for them for many
months while sitting at the
negotiating table at Geneva.
It has been debated among
U.S. experts ever since how
much Russia gained militarily
from this gambit.
An angry President Ken
nedy ordered resumption of
U.S. underground tests in
September, and of atmos
pheric tests in March, 1962.
Meanwhile, on Nov. 28,
1961, the Soviets suddenly
dealt the Geneva talks a sec
ond major blow. In the past
Russia had accepted the
"principle" of International in
spection but bargained over
the terms. Now it suddenly
denounced even Uie principle
and refused to discuss it.
Enter Deepest Slump
Test ban talks entered their
deepest slump. They remain
ed that way until Dec. 19.
1962, when Premier Khrush
chev, just as suddenly as he
had withdrawn it, renewed
Russia's willingness to discuss
inspection in a letter to Pres
ident Kennedy. He offered
By Jimmy Hatlo I Sea Bass ...lb. 59c SILVER SALMON I
two or three inspections on
boviet soil a year.
Khrushchev claimed that
former U.S. disarmament ne
gotiator Arthur Dean had in
dicated two to four would be
an acceptable number. Ken
nedy replied that Dean had
said no such thing. The Unit
ed States demanded at least
seven annual Inspections.
Khrushchev again charged
the U.S. with bad faith.
It will probably never be
known for sure whether Dean
did give Khrushchev cause
for this feeling. Some U.S.
officials say Dean may have
mentioned "two to four" in
formally. In the course of an
illustration, but had not meant
it as a proposal.
Matters slumped again un
til last month when a new
exchange of Kcnnedy-Khrush-cliev
messages led to agree
ment to hold the current Mos
cow talks.
Then, on July 2, In a con
fusing speech in East Berlin,
Khrushchev appeared to ac-
I Halibut Cheeks fRP
OCEAN FRESH Sword fish Steaks JMWIJJ
ffiJg Sea Sea,,ops
Red Snapper ... lb. 39c LING COD M EC
Sea Perch 43c i2 or whoe b. jtjJJ
Sole (Petrale) ..lb. 79c
THURSDAY, JULY
More Favorable
cept an August, 1962, U.S
British proposal for a partial
test ban-covering tests in the
atmosphere, space and under
water, leaving underground
tests to be negotiated later.
Since the West now insists
on on-site inspection only for
underground tests, this would
defer the whole inspection is
sue. But Khrushchev appear
ed to link his proposal to sign
ing an East-West non-aggression
pact, of which western
countries have always been
leery.
U.S. officials say that in the
last analysis the success of
the Moscow talks will depend
on whether Khrushchev real
ly wants a test ban, whether
he feels he can live with his
generals if he signs one, and
whether he feels he can get
away with such a deal with
the West in the midst of his
ideological fight with Red
China.
Western officials feel that
Khrushchev ought to want
one. They feel he has as much
18, 1983
to fear from uncontrolled pro
liferation of nuclear weapons
as the West does.
more meat
ft flavors
HI