B
Problems, Prospects
(Editor's note: Following
U tho eighth article in the
Great Decisions program
ior 1963. This week's topic
is "Peace - What Problems
and Prospects?" The dis
patch was provided by the
Foreign Policy association.
New York, which sponsors
the program.)
The shape of peace in this
spring of 1063 is being deter
mined by the intersection of
long- and short-term pressures
at various points of the globe.
Some observers believe that
the sharp Sino-Soviet split
and the sudden disarray in
the Atlantic alliance shape up
as the two key factors in the
long range prospects for
peace. In their opinion, much
depends on whether and how
the deep cleavages in the
Communist and non Commu
nist worlds are resolved.
The furious controversy be
tween the two giants of the
Communist world has waxed
and waned in recent months
as China and the Soviet Un
ion have battled for the ideo
logical leadership of the Red
Camp.
Continue Salvos
The Chinese continue to fire
full salvos of loaded edito
rials blasting Moscow for go
ing "soft" in its relations
with the West. As exhibit
"A" the Chinese cite Mos
cow's withdrawal, under U.S.
pressure, ot lis missiles irom
Cuba.
In some communiques the
Chinese have even hinted tint
they might demand a redraw
ing of the border between
themselves and the Soviets,
The empty lands of Siberia
and Central Asia may yet
prove too tempting for the
Chinese to resist.
Soviet Premier Khrushchev
continues to argue that the
socallcd paper tiger the U.S.)
showed nuclear teeth in Hie
Cuban crisis and thut coex
istence with the capitalist
world is possible. His words
usually fall on deaf Chinese
ears. Despite the strains in the
Communist bloc, however,
few experts are willing to pre
dict that a. complete rupture
will occur.
Talk of Conference
Currently there is talk of
a Sino Soviet conference
to iron 'out difficulties and
differences. What might the
price of agreement be? Could
the aggressive Chinese per
suade Khrushchev that his
kind of coexistence docs not
pay? Would Khrushchev turn
a more belligerent face to
ward the West to prove to the
Chinese that he has not gone
soft?
If so, increased world ten
sion is likely to result. What
ever happens, developments
in the Slno-Soviet rift arc
certain to have repercussions
on the quest for peace. .
If the Communists have
problems, so does the West.
The deep splits that have de
veloped , over the Common
Market and nuclear policy,
have weakened what was pre
sumed to be the solid founda
tion of the Atlantic alliance.
Challenges Leadership
Dc Gaulle has challenged
U.S. leadership and appears
NIAGARA'S
MAC
if-: .".'inn
5)
SUNDAY. MARCH 24, 1963
j Fs
. INTERNATIONAL SCENE The possibility that points of
East-West conflict like Cuba, Berlin, India or the Near
East will flare into open welfare is generally discounted
determined to forge a West-1 dor possible policies on the
crn European third force led
by France and West Germany.
Britain, excluded from the
Common Market by Dc
Gaulle, has given France a
cold shoulder. Canada is mif
fed at the U.S. over alleged
interference in Canadian af
fairs.
The U.S. has always be
lieved that one of the best
guarantees of peace would be
a strong and united Western
community. Such an alliance
would be overwhelmingly
stronger than the Communist
bloc and would have the mil
itary and economic viablity to
meet or push back Red pres
sure anywhere on the globe.
Now tho U.S. sees that
strength dissipated by contro
versy over economic and mili
tary matters. How will this
affect the uneasy peace of the
lDu'Os? Will the Communist
exploit Western differences to
their own advantage? Or will
they be too busy trying to put
their own house in order?
Again, statesmen must pon-
New Trouble Brewing in Southeast Asia
By PATRICK J- KILLEN
United Press International
Singapore - IUP1I - New trou
ble is brewing in Southeast
Asia, a perpetual trouble spot
since the end of World War
ii. .. ' ' "
The new trouble is the birth
pains of an exciting new coun
try called the Federation of
Malaysia.
Malaysia will unit'" Malaya,
Singapore and tho three Bril-i
ish Borneo territories - North
Borneo, Sarawak and Brunei
- in a country slightly small
er than the state of Montana.
It will lie in a broken half
moon around the southern
end of the South China Sea
and slightly north of the equa
tor. Talked Loosely
British diplomats, and a few
other people, have talked
loosely about some soil of 1
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basis of such unknowns.
Danger Points
Within the framework of
these long-range problems,
there are a number of pres
sure points that could imperil
the peace.
The most sensitive point
continues to be Cuba. Despite
the abatement of last fall's
missile crisis, thousands of
Soviet troops remain on
Castro's island and a new
crisis could explode as a re
sult of their presence.
The U.S. has made it clear
that if Castro, with or without
the help of Soviet troops,
should make a move against
any Caribbean country, he
will be met with American
guns.
The Cuban affair pushed
what has been called the
"perennial crisis spof'-Berlin
-into the background for the
time being. It is significant
that Khrushchev's belliger
ence over Berlin lessened
when he realized that the
U.S. would go to war, if neces
union in this area for years.
But they usually looked no
farther than Singapore and
Malaya.
It remained for Premier
Tcngku Abdul Rahman of Ma
laya to come up with the
idea of including the Borneo
territories and begin to
breathe some life into Ma
laysia.
Rahman, one of Asia's most
visionary and democratic-
minded leaders, made the
first public proposal for the
Federation while addressing
the Foreign Correspondents'
association of Singapore on
May 27, 1961.
He suggested, almost off
handedly, that Singapore and
Malaya and the Borneo terri
tories should come together
in one union.
The Malaysia Federation
was conceived. Things mov-
FUNGICIDE
for Peace Discussed
for the time being by officials of the Kennedy adminis
traion. Top officials agree that the dominant feature of
the international scene at present is uncertainty. (UPI)
sary, to defend its vital inter
ests. Exploratory Talks
There have been reports
that the U.S. and the Soviet
Union intend to reopen ex
ploratory talks on a possible
Berlin solution. Chances of
any concrete developments re
sulting from such talks, how
ever, appear limited.
As one journalist put it,
"The United States and the
Soviet Union are facing a new
round of Berlin talks about as
enthusiastically as a man vis
iting his dentist with an ab
scessed tooth can can neither
be pulled nor filled."
Each side's hand may be
weakened by disunity within
its own camp. Khrushchev,
for instance, may not want to
make . concessions on Berlin
lest he further aggravate the
Chinese. On the other hand,
if he gets tough he could pro
vide the cement the Western
alliance currently lacks.
Test-Ban Pact Elusive
The near-stalled position of
talks on disarmament and a
ed rather rapidly after that.
Rahman made trips to Lon
don to work out some of the
details with the British. He
also worked with leaders in
Singapore and the Borneo ter
ritories.
He expects to make another
visit to London this spring
to get final, formal British
consent. Once that is done the
way will be cleared for the
inauguration of Malaysia next
Aug, 31 - if no complications
develop,
But there are many who are
trying to create complications.
And this is what is causing
the new trouble.
Pushing hardest for Malay
sia arc Great Britain and Ma
laya.
Strongly supporting the
idea arc the United Stales,
Australia and many, if not
most, of the commonwealth
countries.
Oppose Proposal
Strongly opposing it arc
Indonesia and the Philippines.
Russia and Red China also
are opposed and arc giving
plenty of sideline coaching to
other opponents.
for Britain, the Malaysia
plan is what Indian Premier
Jawaharlal Nehru recently
called "a neat and logical way
lo liquidate the British em
pire in Southeast Asia."
For Malaya, Singapore and
the Borneo territories, Ma
laysia offers more hope and
strength for the future.
Malaya, with its tin ami
rubber wealth and a popula
tion of almost seven million,
would form the backbone of
the Federation.
Brunei, a liny land of big
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nuclear test ban are sympto
matic of the uncertain state
of peace. Over a period of
months, the U.S. has cut its
demands for on-site inspec
tions from 20 to 7. The Soviets
have raised their figure from
nothing to three.
It would look as if the dif
ference of four could be com
promised. Yet U.S. negotiat
ors have been generally pessi
mistic. They question whether
the Soviets are really inter
ested in a test ban or in a
foolproof disarmament plan.
Where does this leave the
world? In spite of the dangers
and pressures, most observers
conclude that the cold war is
unlikely to turn into a hot
one. Many also believe that
both the U.S. and the Soviet
Union may find themselves
increasingly concerned with
problems within their own al
liances. Thus, the prognosis,
while not foreseeing clear
weather, does not forecast any
immediate heightening of
U.S. -Soviet tension.
oil wells, was the scene of
an armed uprising last De
cember. The rebellion was or
ganized by Sheik A. M. Aza
hari, leader of the outlawed
Rakyat party, which opposes
Malaysia.
The sultan, Sir Omar Ali
Saifuddin, is the absolute
ruler of Brunei. If he says
yes, Brunei will join Malay
sia. If he says no, Brunei will
remain a . British-protected
sultanate surrounded . by Ma
laysian territory and the
South China Sea.
Although he has not given
a final answer, the chances
are strong that he is going to
say yes.
The Communist opposition
to Malaysia may not be so
difficult to figure out, but
Indonesia an dthe Philippines
arc so violently opposed that
they have talked of war.
President Diosdado Maca
pagal of the Philippines ex
plained some of the reasons
for his nation's opposition in
a stale of the nation address
last Jan. 28.
First, the Philippines has
a claim on North Borneo that
should be settled before North
Borneo joins anything.
Second, according to Maca
pagal, Malaysia would do
nothing more than establish
Malaya as a new colonial
power and pose a possible
throat to the Philippines.
Thirdly, Macapagal and
other Philippines officials
have talked vaguely of Malay
sia bringing Communism or
the
threat of Communism to
the Philippines'
slop.
back door-
By STEWART HENSLEY
United Press International
Washington UP1 The Ken
nedy administratipn finds the
current international situa
tion uncomfortable but not
immediately perilous.
The possibility that any of
the points of East-West con
flict will flare into open war
fare is generally discounted
for the time being, barring
some unforeseen act of mad
ness or miscalculation on the
Communist side.
Top officials agree that the
dominant feature of the in
ternational scene at present
is uncertainty. Both Russia
and the United States have
been reappraising their posi
tions and strategy in the light
of changed circumstances on
both sides of the Iron Cur
tain. The United Slates is at
tempting to restore momen
tum to the drive for increased
NATO strength in the wake
of the French refusal to par
ticipatc in nuclear defense
planning. At the same time,
it is revising its trade nego
tiating plans to take into ac-
county President Charles do
Gaulle s veto of British mem
bership in the Common Mar
ket. Still in Command
The Soviet Union, for its
part, appears to be emerging
from an intensive period of
argument among the hierar
chy which has left Premier
Nikita Khrushchev with some
what diminished stature in
the Kremlin but still in com
mand. The odds are that the Rus
sian position on cold war is
sues will harden, accompanied
by new pressures against soft
spots around the vast periph
ery of the Communist world.
This would be Ihe logical re
sult of the concessions Khru
shchev has been forced to
make to the military and the
members of the Presidium as
a result of his troubles with
Red China and economic dif
ficulties at home.
, Even so, the assumption
here seems to be that the So
viet leadership after its
ill - fated offensive missiles
gamble in Cuba will be
careful not to go so far at
any point as to tempt U. S.
retaliation by military means.
Berlin Still Simmers
The Berlin issue continues
to simmer on the back burner,
where Khrushchev can fan it
to a boil whenever he wants
to increase pressure in that
theater.
Washington and Moscow
have agreed to talk over the
Berlin issue again, but there
is no sign the Kremlin has
abandoned the unacceptable
demands for Allied evacua
tion of the city. The guessing
here is that Khrushchev will
renew pressure on the issue
later in the year, possibly by
signing a separate peace
treaty with Communist East
Germany.
Cuba remains the most crit-1
ical point for the present, dc- i
spite removal of Soviet of-'
tensive weapons and some
military personnel. Less Rus
sian control or power in the
island, although urgently de
sired by the U. S. and its
hemispheric Allies, actually!
increases the danger of some :
ill-advised action by Fidel
Castro's regime. Hie Russians, ,
with .bigger issues at stake,
are believed to have exercised
a moderating influence since
the missile backdown.
Vows To Act
President Kennedy has
sworn to act against any "ag
gressive" move or situation
there, and the unpredictable
Cuban dictator could set off a
Caribbean conflict unless the
Kremlin has his wings clip
ped. what Russia might or might :
not do in such an event is nut I
clear.
The United States "for the
time being," to use Kennedy's
phrase, has no intention of
blockading Soviet oil ship
ments to Cuba or taking other
in Decisions Program
strong action against the is
land. It is counting on the
slow process of strangulation
by economic and diplomatic
means.
There is no clear idea here
as to how long Khrushchev
may be willing to pour ap
proximately $1 million per
day into Cuba simply for the
sake of having a prestige and
subversion outpost in the
hemisphere. It would be dif
ficult for him to pull out
now. Yet the economy is de
teriorating steadily despite
large-scale Russian help.,
Castro exacerbates the sit
uation by proclaiming Red
China's militant line, as op
posed to Russia s "peaceful
coexistence," while taking
Moscow's charity. As one of
ficial put it, "His head is in
China but his stomach is in
Moscow." Red China could
not possibly take over the Cu
ban economic burden Russia
is carrying.
NATO Has Troubles
The Kennedy administra
tion's necessity to defend its
Cuban policy and actions al
most continuously against Re
publican criticism in recent
weeks has distracted h i g n
level attention from the dis
array among the NATO Al
lies. The United States, how
ever, is pushing its offer to
create a multi-lateral nuclear
force for NATO.
The U. S. proposal for a
fleet of surface ships armed
with Polaris missiles and un
der command of several na
tions admittedly is more of
a psychological and political
plan than a military necessity.
It was designed to meet de
sires of the West Germans
and some other Europeans for
a "larger voice" in nuclear
strategy without relinquish
ing the U. S. veto over use
of the weapons. It remains to
be seen whether enough Al
lies will be interested to make
the proposed force worth
while. Trie United States in
sists they bear a large part
of the cost. Washington does
not intend "to underwrite the
creation of any honorary nu
clear bigshols," as one offi
cial said.
Revises Tariff Policy
The administration has
been revising its tariff nego
tiations strategy in the light
of Britain's exclusion from
the Common Market. It also
must try lo find a way to meet
the threat posed by new Eu
ropean quotas against the
American farm products. This
action is a costly one which
will aggravate the unfavora
ble balance of gold dollars,
which continues to run against
the United States.
The East-West negotiations
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on a nuclear test ban as well
as general disarmament ap
pear to have reached a dead
end for the time being. The
breakdown comes over con
tinued Soviet refusal to per
mit the minimum number of
international inspections
which the United Stales be
lieves necessary to police any
such agreements. U. S. offi
cials contend the Russians
have carefully calculated
their position to give an ap
pearance of reasonableness
while remaining safely short
of any points the West could
accept with a sense of se
curity. Supports Nasser
U. S. policy in the Middle
East is based on the assump
tion that United Arab Repub
lic President , Gamal Abdel
Nasser has achieved a sense
of responsibility and will not
undertake any rash action.
The United States is provid
ing Nasser with approximate
ly S145 million in economic
aid this year. It provided S257
million last year. Washington
quickly recognized the new
pro-Nasser revolutionary re
gimes in Yemen, Iraq and
Syria. At the same time, it
pledged to protect the anti
Nasser governments in Saudi
Arabia and Jordan. The key
element in Washington's
thinking appears to have
been that all the new revolu
tionary regimes looked anti
Communist. If they and Nas
ser should unite in military
action against Israel, or the
two anti-Nasser Arab states,
this U. S. tightrope act could
prove disastrous in that area.
The administration has no
plans to try to take advan
tage of the rift between Red
China and Russia. The belief
is that any meddling might
tend to drive the two together
again. Despite occasional evi
dence that the Moscow-Peking
split is irreparable, officials
here still do not rule out the
possibility of some rapproche
ment. Communist China remains
the big question mark, partic
ularly with regard to South
east Asia. Officials here con
cede Peking might be able
to explode a crude nuclear
device within a year or 18
months. While it would be
many years before she could
have any sophisticated deliv
ery system, the mere fact that
she had set off an atomic
weapon would give her a
strong blackmail power over
all Southeast Asia. Indian
Prime Minister Jawaharlal
Nehru has acknowledged this
in private talks.
Help for India
The United States plans to
help India build up its air
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defenses against the possibili
ty of renewed Chinese Com
munist attacks. Officials here
do not anticipate any Chinese
effort to invade in depth, but
believe there may be a re
currence of the border as
saults. The U. S., working
with Britain and other mem
bers of the Commonwealth, is
expected to improve Indian
airfields and make arrange
ments for increasing the effi
ciency of the air defense in
depth.
The Kennedy administra
tion finds no. opportunity in
the present situation for any
dynamic or spectacular new
initiative. It will continue the
buildup of American military
might, along with efforts to
pull the NATO alliance closer
together and try to satisfy the
aspirations of the Allies for
a greater share in strategy de
cisions. Beyond that, it counts
on economic and diplomatic
warfare to hold and eventual
ly turn back Communist ex
pansionist plans.
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