'Human Doubling Doubled in
By H. D. QUIGG
United Pratt International
New York lUTO - Tick-tick-tick-tick-tick;
. . .
The average wristwalch
beats along at 18,000 ticks an
hour. In the passing of each
second, it ticks five times.
And in that same second,
three more human beings are
born on this planet.
At the present estimated
rate, each year 100 million
babies arrive and about SO
million people die - a yearly
gain of about SO million. Each
year another Italy.
Not long before the day last
fall when the Russians began
loosing megaton blasts in a
breach of the moratorium on
nuclear testing, humankind of
this earth scurried past a mile
stone toward which it had
been moving for at least 200,
000 years, perhaps a million
years.
Three Billion People
This was the moment when,
suddenly, there were 3 billion
of us.
Yellow men, black men,
bronze, mocha, pink and white
men. And women. And chil
dren. The world population
had hit 3 billion - but in the
very next minute, there were
100 births and only half that
many deaths.
It took us all of human his
lory to multiply ourselves to
that fertility milestone. And
yet, if the present compound
interest growth increase rate
keeps up, we will double again
in only 38 years and explode
upon the 21st century, at the
end of 1009, with more than
6 billion human souls alive on
earth. The projected rate by
that time would double us to
12 billion in only 27 years.
High in the green-glass
walled skyscraper that
houses the United Nations
secretariat, the U. N. sta
tistical office sits behind big
windows affording a mag
nificent view-on days when
the man-polluted air is
scrubbed clear enough to
sec through - of the city
(pop. density 24,607 harried
SILENCE PLEASE
THERMOSTAT
WORKING!
Sure it'i working on a
"NORWESTER"
WOOD HEATER
Working to held your
teaton't fuel bill
BELOW $50
Many are doing
V'ty not you
' jr
r i
"A TK only automatic wood htatar
manufacturtd in th Wait. Mad
ttpctioliy ts bum aur wtittm
lypi wood. H i tha GOOD ONE.
A vtry popular hcattr . . . many
tnautandt in via and thauiandi
I lham baing bought tah yaar.
flVt ROOMS AND UP Circulator
madaW only $138 50 to $184 50
Iplut frtight.
GET YOURS TODAY whila ndtqualt
ttotki on ovoilohU. Rudgtl tirmi.
For tola axclutivaly at
EADS FURNITURE
129 S. Front - 772-7171
In Two Veen Time It h proven to
be the lett word in Shopping Con
venience for Downtown Merllord
Shoppers. Uie Thit Modern Facility
PARK AND SHOP - Maintained by
Member Merchants In your Interest.
Perk I Shop Providei
FREE PARKING with
Your $2 Minimum
Purchase.
SUNDAY. JULY 22. 1962
New Yorkers per square
mile).
From that office, this
month, will come the offi
cial word that the human
ity count - it's really an es
timate, since half the births
and about a third of the
deaths are not registercd
has passed 3 billion.
The quarterly "population
and vita! statistics report"
for July, which takes a year
to check on the world, will
contain the figure for 1981
midyear: 3,060.8 million.
Suppose a decision should
he made that this is enough,
that 3 billion is as big a
human hive as this earth
could hold. So will we pop
ulate other planets, send the
surplus migrating to new
worlds? If a rocket took
off every hour on the hour,
day and night, each one
would have to carry 3,707
, passengers. That's the pres
ent rate of world growth
per hour.
. This is the "population ex
plosion," which some voices
of opinion now are ranking
second only to control of
atomic weapons as a threat
to human existence. Others
say it is preposterous to pro
ject the present world
growth over a long period.
It's now 1.7 per cent a
year.
About Iwo out of every
three babies born at present
will live long enough to have
babies of their own. And at
least two-thirds of all babies
born each year are in Asia,
Africa, and Latin America,
the underdeveloped areas.
Their birth rate has remained
high and science has spectacu
larly cut the death rate, par
ticularly infant mortality.
I n the underdeveloped coun
tries at least 40 per cent of
the population is under IS
vears of age, according to the
French authority Alfred Sau-
vy. That's compared wilh 20
to 30 per cent in western
countries. So the underdevel
oped countries have a smaller
proportion of productive
workers, and the dependency
load Is greater on those who
do work.
A country thai has a popu
lation growth of 2 to 3 per
cent a year as a great many
of these underdeveloped
lands do - must spend up In
10 per cent of its national in
come Just to keep ils living
standard from going down.
Prof. Sauvy Is on the popu
lation commission of the U.N.
and holds the chair of social
demography at the College dc
France. His book "Fertility
and Survival: Population
Problems from Malthus to
Mao Tsc-tung" recently was
translated and published here.
In it he discusses whether
underdeveloped countries can
depend on savings of their
poor for national develop
ment: "In all these countries, in
come is very low, oflen lower
than $95 a year per person;
this income (or rather this
produce) is seldom enough
even for purely physiological
needs. Mow then, or by whal
magic, can this undernourished
and debilitated man renounce
part of his vital food and
that of his children
Sanw exnoris the Iremen-
tions spurt o( population in I
the underdeveloped regions to I
continue lor at least anollier
generation and says their liv
ing standards must be im
proved: "II would be inhuman
and dangerous lo allow hu
man beings lo multiply In
wretchedness."
When John D. Rockefeller
HI, chairman of the Rocke-
Nothing Old Fashioned About
m a per n
if
, j"r. 1 LHJ 1 j . n
POPULATION.
fcXpLOSlOV
I
i
250 Million pTH
I 10 Million I i r
ST0HEJGE 1 J.D.
KltltmU elUKIKMl.lM Ml t)naU
POPULATION ON THE LOOSE - This At the current rale of increase, the world's
chart by UP1 shows estimated growth of population would be near 6.2 billion by the
the world's population since the Stone Age. year 2,000. (Uri)
feller Foundation, told a
Rome meeting of the U.N.
food and agricultural organ
ization that population
growth ranked next to A
bomb control as "the para
mount problem of man
kind," The New York
Times said the statement
was inconlrovcrtibly true,
as of today.
But it added in an edi
torial: "Judging, however,
by Ihe explosive rale at
which population is increas
ing in the underdeveloped
countries of Asia, Africa
and Latin America, the time
may soon come when even
Ihe control of atomic wea
pons may he second to pop
ulation growth . . ."
Those Ihree regions be
tween IPSO and 1957 ac
counted for more than 77
per cent of the estimated
world increase. Some of
their countries are hitting
3 and 3.5 per cent yearly
increases, compared with
1.7 world average. Estimat
ed increases to the year
2000 would give the three
areas more than 5.5 billion
people out of the expected
world tolnl of 8.2 to 7 bil
lion. The following estimates
show the increases for the
span of years 1050-2000 (in
millions); Latin America,
1 63-650; Africa, 199-663;
Asia, 1,380-4.250.
The sturiv of populations is
called demography, Whal has
inspired demographers to
phrases like "demographic
revolution'' is Ihe speed up in
Ihe rnlo of nomilation increase
in this centurv. As Sir Julian
Huxley put it: "The rate of
human doubling has been clou -
bled in Ihe last 80 years." hitler controversy in religious
Sauvy calls this sudden groups about birth control,
"rapid growth in numbers" a Bui the emotionalism nppar
new (actor lhat has come lo, entry has tended lo obscure
our planet. In a few centuries niaior areas of agreement,
the world has gone from an i Catholics, Protestants, and
increase rate of 0 5 per cent j Jews generally are in acree
to today's 1.7, a rise of more i ment that serious social and
than 200 per cent. The U. N. I economic problems can occur,
"medium assumption" is that i As the Rev. John A. O'Brien
1 r n , ' 1
U 11 II I ' J
u . i ii 1 tert ...
hztj ,a r f
s I
I
, ! 3 Billion
500 Million
1650
world population might grow
at 2.1 per cent between 1950
and 1975 ar.d almost 2.6 be
tween 1976 and 2000. The first
rate would double the popu
lace every 33 years; the sec
ond, every 27.
To dramatize what even a
steady 1 per cent rate would
do, Philip M. Mauser, chair
man of the University of Chi
cago sociology department,
wrote in the magazine Sci
ence: Contemporary Population
"One hundred persons mul
tiplying at 1 per cent per
year, not ever Ihe period of
200,00(1 to 1 million years of
man's occupancy of this
globe but merely for the 5000
years of human history, would
have pioduced a contempor
ary population of 2.7 billion
persons per square foot of
land surface of the earth!"
It has been pointed out by
those who argue that the
world is easily able to sup
port expanding populations
that if you could put the
world's whole 3 billion popu
lation into the United States,
it still wouldn't be any more
crowded than the Netherlands
is now. Holland's population
density is 916 per square
mile and the Dutch aren't
complaining.
But b demographer has fig
ured out that if the present
rate of U.S. growth (1.8 per
cent) continued steady for
800 years, there would be one
.person for every square foot
in the country. And he added
that 800 years isn't very long
in a demographer's reckoning.
Welter of Figuret
Through the welter of lig-
hits on the suniect ot popula
j tion there has swirled for
, several decades a sometimes
1.1
1
1.1
Past 80
;
"
1
M Liitiiaiutui Jm.kWjii (hill!
1980
2000 est.
of Notre Dame University has
observed, the three groups
agree on the "objectives of
family planning but disagree
over the methods to be used
Students of populotion-in-
crease emphasize the dan
ger to quality.
Robert C. Cook, presi
dent of the Population Ref
erence bureau, a private
organization, says the great
est hope now is that tech
nology - the expansion of
science that brought, in a
sense, Heat h-contrnl and
thus srt off the population
explosion - now ran con
trol fertility.
"Essential lo this is an
understanding of basin
arithmetic - that numbers
per se are the enemy of
quality o( living -- lhat peo
ple who improvidently wor
ship the stork doom their
children and their chil
dren's children to poverty
and despair."
Julian Huxley, keynoting
a series in the British maga
zine Punch on "The Crowd
ed World," said the explos
ion posed the fundamental
question of human destiny
- whal are people for?
"Surely," he wrote, "peo
ple do not exist just to pro
vide bomb-fodder for an
atomic bonfire, or religion
fodder for rival churches,
or cannon-fodder for rival
nations, or discase-f odder
for rival parasites, or labor-fodder
for rival econ
omic systems, or ideology
fodder for rival political
system, or even ronsumcr
f odder for profit-making
systems.
"It cannot he their des
tiny to exist in ever larger
mrpalopolitan sprawls, cut
off from rnntael with na
ture and from the sense of
h u m a n community and
condemned to increas
ing frustrations, noise, me
c h n n i c a 1 routine, traf
fic congestion and endless
commuting; nor to live out
their undernourished lives
in some squalid Asian or
African village.
' ' M a n ' s dominant aim
Concerts Planned
During Festival
Ashland - Theater - goers:
al the Oregon Shakespearean
Festival in Ashland will again
he un'iled to concerts on aller
nate Sundays sponsored by
Ihe Festival association ,nd
performed by the Festival mu
sicians, ralternrrl around on Kli7a
belhan thrnie. the popular
concert series is scheduled
this afternoon. Aug 5, Aug
19. and Sept. 2
Today Ihe Festival musi
nans under the directum of
W. Bernard Wind! will pre
sent a varied program which
will include Pastorale" iVi
valdll. "Gardens in the Rain"
(Debussyi, "French Soils in
G" iBaeM as well as other
works by Mo?art, Bach and
Beethoven in addition to as
sorted Madrigal singing se
lections Singers participating in the
Sunday concerts are Willa
Warren. Carol llendnck. Fv
eretl Winter, and Roy Roo
sin. Musicians pe: forming are
Shanne Crouch, sfie Ann Ru
therford. Marilyn Baker, Lu
cille Melmat. Judy Rmrlie.
I.yn Sohler, and W R Windt.
The Sundav eoncrr! series
is held bi-wrrkly in the old
rtrsM !rr lan tnn-tr Huil-1
tne in Ashland .tri'nj at
.1 .in p m
MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE. MEDFORD. OREGON
Years'
must be increase in quality
- quality of human person
ality, of achievement, of
works of art and craftsman
ship, of inner experience,
of quality of life and living
in general. But the inordin
ate growth of human num
bers bars the way to any
such desirable revolution,
produces increasing frus
tration instead of greater
fulfillment."
He called for a world
population policy, under
the U.N.
It has been said that the
leaders of some of the newly
independent nations look
with pride on their ballooning
populations because numbers
mean national power.
But lack of economic devel
opment and skill come in too.
The four biggest nations to
tal more than half the world's
population. The forthcoming
U.N. report will list them, as
of mid-1961, with these fig
ures: U.S.A., 183.650,000;
U.S.S.R., 218.000,000; India,
440,316.000; Mainland China
- well, the latest is a semi-official
guess hack in 1958 of
680,000,000 and some say Red
China must be nearing 700
million.
Food Supply Growing
The world food supply is
growing at more than 2 per
cent a year and it can be tipp
ed drastically. But there is a
great diversity of opinion
about how much it can be
increased and what top size
of world population should
be.
Huxley says it should be a
I uttle less tlian it is ngnt now.
The Catholic Digest has quot-
I ea uxiora university econo-
mist - demographer Colin
Clark as saying that "with
common sense development
and production, the world
can comlortably accommodate
about tiO billion people."
A British food and popula
tion specialist, Edward Hy
ams, wrote in Punch that "ev
ery minute about 6 hundred
weight ot a iinite supply of
(eaiablc) mailer is being reor
ganized into human bodies"
and that the ultimate result is
lhat all suitable elements at
present in the earth's crust
and in animals and vegetables
will be converted into human
ity. But he said we ran - if
we buckle down to it - hold
our own in Ihe food rare for
a long time.
The top popiilalinn limit,
he guesses, probably would
be about 15 billion: "That
limit having been reached,
there is no solution short of
cannibalism."
The word "explode" com
bines the Latin words for
"off" and "applaud." Tha
original meaning of ex
plode was "to drive from
Ihe stage by noisy disap
proval: to hoot off." If the
world is indeed a stage, as
Shakespeare called it. and
the men and women play
ers, some authorities be
lieve their last dramatic act
might be to explode them
selves right off the stage by
fondly reproducing their
like.
Eugene Ft. Rlack, presi
dent of the World bank,
wrote a foreword to the re
cent report on the popula
tion explosion made by the
center for economic inter
national growth. Me said the
"surging increase of people:
". .. . Threatens directly
Ihe success of the greatest
enterprise of our day -the
international develop
ment effort which is at
tempting lo provide toler
able living standards to the
two-thirds of mankind
which is now almost al
ways in want."
In 1062, one billion per
sons live under commun
ism. Half a billion live in
the industrial countries of
the West, including Auslra-
lia and Japan. The other
1 5 billion - with shrinking
elbowroom and bitter food
problems occupy half the
problems occupy half Ihe
globe's land and these are
the contested people of the
cold war
Be Choosy . . .
H Get
Jacuzzi
PUMPS!
Vi H.P.
DEEP WELL PUMP
With 42 Gal. Tank
and Air Charger
$15.95 down,
$13.15 per mo.
Irrigation Pumps
Centrifugal
$2950
and up
Siskiyou Hardware
235 w m,. rh 77 J39
S&H GRUN STAMPS
7
J J 0NE THING A FARMER
S jtw D0ES N0T WANT T0
-A JT '' CULTIVATE IS AN
XX ACCIDENT
hg A Point-
By-Point
mi
i
I
S
i
i
S$ FAMIIY 5AFETY
(t Work end
SfW P'Y
MACHINERY ind equipment
nhould alwayi be kept in good
repair, and used with purd
and safely devices in povtion,
CLOTHING thai loo-.e-fiMi"i
pr torn houtd never he worn
around moving machinery.
GUNS should always be siored
unloaded, and put where chil
dren can't gel al them.
WATER HOLES on your prop
erty are e potentiel danger to
children . . . they should be
fenced of to prevent mishaps.
For Fine Ihjirtj Ptnlucts
Always AsU iWe,Joi7eii.veii$
maemem
Urges You To-
MAKE EVERY WEEK A FARM
SAFETY WEEK BY OBSERVING
THESE RULES!
Check Them Over This Week!
o o
lectlcs
BUILDINGS and your homo
should be kept in good repair at
all limes, with H safely hazards
carefully eliminated.
FIRE HAZARDS ar everywhere
... be careful wilh matches . .
den t smoke around the barnl
ANIMALS may bolt if startled)
warn them of your presence by
speaking before approaching.
INSURANCE keeps your family
and farm safe from the hazard
of financial disaster. Be sure
you e fully covered.