TUESDAY, AUGUST 23, 1968
MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE, MEDFORD, ORE.
5
Matter of Fact a joSePh
WHAT GALLUP LEFT OUT
Washington In the news
paper trade, it is usually con
sidered bad form for one
wretched
scribbler to
make remarks
in print about
the work of
another. Yet
an exception
seems to be
justified in the
case of the
inquiring Dr.
intira .inp ueoi-ge umi-
f f i
lup's important first poll after
the national conventions.
What is left out needs to be
put back in.
The political community
was both excited and amazed
by this poll, showing 50 per
cent of the "decided" pollees
choosing Vice President Rich
ard M. Nixon, 44 per cent of
the "decided" choosing Sen.
John F. Kennedy, and 6 per
cent of the pollees undecided.
Nixon's lead caused the ex
citement. The almost incred
ibly low percentage of unde
cided voters caused the amaze
ment. But the voters so positively
described as "decided" by Dr.
Gallup were by no means un
animously decided in the true
sense of that word. In the
total sample, 6 per cent of
the pollees specifically stated
they were undecided about
their votes, but later admitted
or indicated that they were
leaning to one candidate or
another. These "leaners" - a
familiar phenomenon to every
doorbell ringer - were some
what oddly lumped in with
the truly "decided" in the
published poll.
ACCORDING to Paul Perry,
chief statistician of the
Gallup organization, this un
disclosed disposition of the
"leaners" benefited the Dem
ocrats. He said that the Kennedy-Johnson
ticket got "ap
proximately 54 per cent of all
the leaners."
The Democrats rather con
spicuously failed to benefit,
however, by two other un
seen dispositions made by Dr.
Gallup and his staff. The first
and most remarkable was the
simple cancellation of about
20 per cent of all the ballots
collected by Dr. Gallup's
field workers.
Apparently this winnowing
of goats from sheep is stand
ard Gallup practice. Suspect
ed non-voters are spotted by
such indicators as failure to
vote last time, failure to reg
ister thus far, and so on. The
suspects' ballots are then
thrown out of the sample -which
is the other half of the
secret of Dr. Gallup's amaz
ing low percentage of unde
cided voters.
Statistician Perry stated
that he "did not have" the ac
tual split of the suspects
thrown out of the recently
published poll; but he added
that the discarded ballots
were "regularly more Demo
cratic." In addition, import
ant numbers of Democratic
votes were apparently light
weighted by Dr. Gallup's
special system of synthesizing
his national percentage fig
ures. T IKE the throw-out of sus-
peeled non-voters, this syn
thetic character of Dr. Gal
lup's published national per
centages may well be known
to sociologists and other stu
dents. Statistician Perry made
no bones about it, when ques
tioned. But it is certainly un
known in the political com
munity, where the Gallup re
sults are therefore misunder
stood. Briefly, then, every Gallup
poll is divided into four re
gions, Eastern', Mid-western,
Southern, and Western. Vot
ing habits in the regions dif-
for. The aim is to forecast, not
the victor in the election, but
the DODular vote. Thus the
polling samples from each re
eion are given a "weight,"
proportional to that region's
contribution to the popular
vote in 1956. The national
averages are then synthesized
from the weighted samples.
The region that suffers from
this system is the South, where
the popular vote is always low
in national elections. The 13
states in Dr. Gallup's Sou
thern region have just under
a quarter of the population of
the United States. More im
portant, they have 27.2 per
cent of the Electoral College
votes, which decide the presi
dential choice. But in Dr. Gal
TraffW-lMb?- sT'WWV
If t'V
A. Mutual Investment Fund
Cluck () IM Pftmetm t
n United SCIENCE FUND
United INCOME Fund
WADDELL
SO West 9th St. Bid.
Kansas uuy 9. mo.
DIVISIONAL OFFICE
Century Bldg. 843 E.
ADDRESS..
CITY
Alsop
lup's percentage synthesis,
the 1956 yardstick gave the
South a "weight" of only 16.6
per cent. Thus every Sou
therner in Dr. Gallup's recent
sample got only about three
fifths of a vote in the final
count.
ALTHOUGH Dr. Gallup se
cretly publishes regional
breakdowns, he is not doing so
this time. Hence statistician
Perry refused to disclose the
split of the latest Southern
sample. Rather hesitantly, he
merely said that the Republi
cans were doing better in the
South than they have done in
the past, "except in 1928,
1952, and 1956" - which were
the only years when the Re
publicans got to first base in
the South.
It seems likely, therefore,
that the Gallup sample from
the Southern region showed a
small but significant Demo
cratic majority, which was
then down - graded by the
"weighting" system. Add the
probable Democratic majori
ty among the thrown-out bal
lots of suspected non-voters.
It then seems a fair bet that
the Democrats actually had
a modest over-all majority in
Dr. Gallup's unprocessed bal
lots. A handful of voles would
produce such a majority, be
cause of the narrow base of
Dr. Gallup's famous percen
tages. In the last poll, the per
centage sample was about
1,600 ballots. About 20 per
cent were thrown out, and the
final sample was under 1,300
ballots. A single Gallup per
centage point would therefore
represent not more than 13
votes. And the mere transfer
of 39 votes either way would
have altered Dr. Gallup's na
tionwide percentages, to show
Kennedy running dead - even
with Nixon, or to show Nixon
leading Kennedy, 53-41.
ALL this is not intended to
suggest that Dr. Gallup
has been cooking his poll. He
has not been doing anything
of the sort.
Yet the facts have to be
faced that this poll has be
come a fairly major, extra
legal institution of American
politics. For this reason, such
things as unannounced trans
formations of "leaners" into
"decideds" do not serve the
public interest.
Dr. Gallup's industrial and
commercial clients may be
best served by facts carefully
processed and homogenized in
the undoubtedly expert uai
Iud manner, but the public in
terest demands something
more when Dr. Gallup puts
on his political - institutional
hat. In this role, Dr. Gallup
ought also to provide all the
unDrocessed facts. Indeed, he
might start this time.
(Copyright 1960, New York
Herald Tribune, Inc.)
Black Mice Turned
White During Orbil
London-ftJPD - Black mice
sent into orbit in Sputnik V
turned white in space, radio
Moscow said today.
A broadcast describing Mon
day's news conference attend
ed by space dogs Belka and
Strelka, said high energy rays
turned the mice's hair from
black to white.
The mice were a special
breed, highly susceptible to
external influences, Radio
Moscow said.
The broadcast did not say
what efect the rays had on
Belka and Strelka.
Tidal Waves Hit
Korea Port City
Snnul. Korea - (UPD - Fifty-
foot tidal waves whipped up
by a typnoon
battered the
southern port city of Pusan
early today, submerging 1,
600 houses, sinking one ship
and washing away eight oth
er houses.
Four crewmen of the sunk
en ship Taeulho managed to
swim to safety. Eight were
missing in the raging waters.
Reports from Pusan said
that almost 2,000 persons had
been driven from their homes.
The weather bureau said
that heavy rains were expect
ed to hit the entire Korean
peninsula, breaking a long
dry spell.
irltin IIKraturt ro. ''
United ACCUMULATIVE Fgnd
United CONTINENTAL Fund
& REED, INC.
Principal
Underwriters
Afi wan fit
New York S. N. V.
Main Medferd SP 3-4417
Try and Sfop Me
By BENNETT CERF
A NEWSPAPER COLUMNIST was properly indignant
when his young son reported, "A man told us at the
general assembly in school today that we should give the
whole U.S.A. back to the
Indians."
"Outrageous!" sputter
ed the father. "I'll ex
pose him in my column
tomorrow. What's h i s
name?"
"I'm not sure," ad
mitted the son, "but I
think it's Chief Sitting
Bear."
Harvey Campbell tells
about, a doctor who came
down from the delivery
room and told a nervous
actor, "You are the father
of a fine, bouncing boy" so the actor sent him a check to match.
There's a blonde-crazy agent prowling the byways of Beverly
Hills who is referred to in the starlet set as "What every young
girl should no."
I960, by Bennett Cerf. Distributed by King Features Syndicate
In the Day's News
By FRANK JENKINS
We finally scooped a nose
capsule, ejected from a world
circling satellite, out of the
air. The pilot who made the
catch is awarded the Disting
uished Flying Cross and crew
men who helped with the job
are given Air Medals.
The capsule itself was
speeded from Hawaii, in the
general vicinity of which the
air recovery was made, to the
Lockheed laboratory at Sun
nyvale, Calif., for scientific
analysis before it is sent on
to Washington. In Sunnyvale,
the assistant general manager
of Lockheed (which provided
Color Slides At
State Fair Judged
Salem - Judging in the Or
egon Slate Fair's internation
al color slide show has been
completed, and five slides
were chosen as winners of
Gold Seal Medal awards.
Winners of the Gold Seal
are Ben D. Andrews, Sher
wood; M. Craig Carver, Sa
lem; Elva H. Hayward, Long
Beach, Calif.; Bertha L. Hill,
Melrose, Mass, and Harry J.
Hirsh, Portland.
The Photographic Society
of America Gold Medal was
awarded to J. H. Schmidt,
Bettendorf, Iowa, for his slide
entitled "Egg and I Beam,"
which was judged the most
original slide of the exhibit.
The medal was earlier pre
sented to the fair by the PSA,
as one of the outstanding
shows in the country, and the
fair decided to pass it on to
one outstanding exhibitor.
A total of 1,856 slides
were entered, and 371 have
been selected to be shown at
the nightly slide showing. En
tries were received from 32
stales and seven foreign coun
tries. Mary Martin Pays
Tribute to Lyricist
New York - (UPI) - Actress
Mary Martin was not inform
of the death of Oscar Ham
merstein II, her old friend
and creator of her most fam
ous fictional role, that of Nel
lie Forbush in "South Pa
cific," until she got up today.
' The grief-stricken musical
comedy star, currently ap
pearing in Hammerstein's last
work, "The Sound of Music",
issued the following state
ment:
"The dearest man I've ever
known is gone. But his gentle
ness, his Kindness, nis gruui-
ness of soul will live forever
not only in me neans oi uiuse
who had the privilege of his
friendship but also in the
memory of the millions whose
lives will forever be enrich
ed by the beauty and honesty
of his words."
Despite the lyricist's death,
there were no plans to concel
tonight's performance of "The
Sound of Music."
ARREST YOUNG THIEVES
Clark. N.J.-UIPD-Police said
today a series of 60 thefts in
the past eight months had
been cleared up with the ar
rest of 10 children ranging In
age from 12 to 15. The youths,
seven boys and three girls,
confessed Monday to the
thefts, which netted an esti
mated total of 52,000 in cash
and merchandise, police said.
About 92 per cent of all
farm products go to first mar
kets by truck.
ANY MAIL FROM
BARKER'S?
the instruments) issued this
statement;
"The recovery of the cap
sule - a historic event TOP
PING last week's recovery of
the Discoverer XIII capsule
from the ocean-is a scientific
feat of WORLD IMPORT
ANCE. It materially advances
the space efforts of the United
States and places our scien
tific endeavors in the proper
perspective to other nations."
Till
fr
HIE catching of this capsule
om the nose of a rocket
that had orbited around the
world 16 times and was re
leased and recovered on the
17th circuit is obviously an
achievement to be proud of.
Even a layman can see that.
It involves calculations that
must be microscopically accu
rate if all the threads are to
come out together at the same
time. We have reason to be
proud of our ability to make
such calculations and to build
the equipment to carry them
out.
BUT
Something else must be
involved-something more sig
nificant than mere scientific
accuracy.
What is it?
A HINT is contained in a
dispatch that followed the
recovery of the nose cone cap
sule that fell into the ocean
and was recovered from the
water. It read:
'The Discoverer rockets
are the forerunners oi tne
Samos and Midas spy-in-the-
sky satellites. Samos, now be
ing readied as a khi'laliv
MENT for the U2 observation
planes, is a series of satellites
which would PHOTOGRAPH
THE EARTH'S TERRAIN,
while the Midas satellites
would detect firing of missiles
and flash to us instantaneous
ly word of such firings."
THAT is to say.
With' Samos satellites go
ing around and around the
earth and sending back to us
PICTURES of enemy military
installations, including missile-launching
sites, and Midas
satellites following along and
flashing to us instantaneous
word of the launching of
enemy missiles, WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ALONG
WITHOUT HUMAN SPIES
in manned aircraft - such as
Francis Powers and his U2
high-flying observation plane.
That would indeed be an
achievement.
AND
It!
suggests a remote possi
bility that is even more allur
ing. Perhaps
In time
These robot scouts, circling
the earth constantly and re
porting instantaneously every
thlne thev see. might become
so competent ana so depend
able as to remove from nu
clear missile warfare the ele
ment of surprise that is es
sential if one nation is to de
stroy another nation in one
fell blow-before it can have
time to retaliate.
rpHAT would indeed be an
-- achievement.
It might lead to abandon
ment of nuclear warfare-just
aS poison gas warfare was at
least tcmDorarily abandoned
after its original use in World
War I.
TOO much to hope for?
Let's HOPE, anyway.
A world without hope
would be a dreary world
indeed.
Crop Duster
Becoming Businessmen
New York-OIPD - The dare
devil crop duster pilot has be
come a big business man and
one of the chief hopes for
feeding the world's exploding
population, farm experts said
today.
The crop duster used to be
a shoestring operator with one
or two ancient biplanes who
was called for when army
worms threatened grain fields
or the boll weevil appeared
in a cotton region.
But last year 1,800 agricul
tural flying firms using 5,000
planes did $107 million worth
of business. The magazine Fly
ing says the business is grow
ing even faster this year.
Depth Charge Can
Be Dropped on
Subs from Planes
Washington - IUPD - U. S.
antisubmarine forces now car
ry an atomic depth charge
called Lulu which can be
dropped by helicopters and
airplanes on enemy subs lurk
ing beneath the seas.
It is a lighter and smaller
anti-submarine weapon than
the Navy's first nuclear depth
charge, named Betty, which
it eventually will replace. The
defense department disclosed
Monday that the fleet was
armed with Lulu.
Lulu presumably packs as
much power as Betty, or even
more. The older weapon has
been in the Navy's arsenal for
three or four years. The Navy
declined to say how long Lulu
has been available, but its as
signment to antisub forces ap
parently is not a recent move.
It has been in production
for "some time," the Navy ac
knowledged. Defense Secretary Thomas
S. Gates made the disclosure
about Lulu in remarks at the
Veterans of Foreign Wars con
vention in Detroit.
Kennedy May Visit
Oregon State Fair
Salem - Both Sen. John
Kennedy, the Democratic
presidential candidate, and
Gov. William F. Quinn of Ha
waii will attend the Oregon
State Fair in Salem,, if cur
rent plans materialize;
Governor Quinn will at
tend the fair Saturday, Sept,
3, and Senator Kennedy is
tentatively scheduled to make
a major campaign appearance
Wednesday, Sept. 7.
The Hawaiian governor will
visit the 95th annual affair
with two of his seven chil
dren and will spend most of
the day on the grounds. He
is expected to arrive at 10
a.m. with a military band to
greet him at the front gate.
Gov. Mark Hatfield, who
has been a personal friend of
Gov. Quinn's for many years,
will be host to the visiting
dignitary while he is in the
state.
Democratic officials are ex
pected to meet soon to dis
cuss details of Sen. Kennedy's
jaunt to the state Sept. 7. It
is expected that a visit to the
fair will be one of the items
placed on his Itinerary dur
ing his one day stay In Ore
gon. Should he appear at the
fair, the Massachusetts sena
tor would address the crowd
from the bandstand in the
middle of the grounds.
WEST FUNERAL SET
Portland-flJPII-Funcral serv
ices wil be held here at 11:30
a.m. Wednesday for ex-Gov.
Oswald West, who died Mon
day. The services will be held
F i n 1 e y s Morninglight
chapel.
7
who
-stole
Kutnquac T
Pe.YeJJ
It's a crying shame, but someone's rilled the root cellar
now granny can't enter her kumquat preserves lor judging
at the fair.
If the pilferer doesn't return them at once, grandma will
refuse to tell him the remedy.
rides Drizes races displays surprises judging
Pilots Now
Although the pilot sprayed
a record 80-million acres
against insects last year, the
significant thing is that agri
cultural flying no longer is
merely crop dusting. Planes
now are being used to fer
tilize and dress soil and plant
pasture lands and even some
crops.
In the United States, Aus
tralia, Red China and other
countries, the plane is suc
ceeding in bringing into culti
vation millions of upland
acres that never could be seed
ed by wheeled machines.
The U.S. Department of
Agriculture succeeded in us
ing two small planes to top
dress 166 acres of hilly land
with fertilizer and lime at
12.5-cents per acre in Watagua
County, N.C. This land then
grew enough grass for grazing
cattle for the first time in
history.
In several western states,
young fir trees are being sav
ed because only airplanes can
spray the huge forests fast
enough to kill the spruce bud-
worm during the brief period
in which it is vulnerable to
poison.
The business Is expanding
so fast that half a dozen plane
makers are making special
craft selling for around $20,-
000 to replace the old war
surplus craft the crop dusters
have been using
Armstrong-Jones
Considering Job
With Civic Firm
London - (UPD - Col. Ken
neth Post confirmed today
that Antony Armstrong-Jones
is considering a $14,000-a-year
lob vJlth his organization and
that he might even report to
the office and work.
Post, director of the Civic
Trust, an oreanization dedi
cated to the beautmcauon oi
Britain's buildings and decay
ing streets, said Jones recent
ly talked with Duncan oan
dvs. who formed the trust
when he was housing minister
three years ago.
I understand wir. jones
was very entnusiasuc, sum
Post. "I think he would be
a wonderful asset here.
The colonel said Jones' sal-
arv orobably would be "much
less" than he could earn in
normal business. "I should
imagine It would be less than
5,000 pounds S14,OUU
year," he added.
"Of course, the type of ad
visory work he would be do
ing could be done from home
(Kensington Palace)," Post
said, "but If he does decide
to work from here, we'll have
to sort him out a desk and
some space."
The ex-photographer's de
cision whether to take the
job will be made when he re
turns from Balmoral, Scot
land, with the royal family.
Court sources indicated the
job was chosen for him by
Buckingham Palace.
25 Police Recruits
To Start Training
Salem - IUPD - Some 25 state
police recruits will begin
three weeks intensive training
at the Oregon State Police
Academy at Camp Wlthy
comb near Clackamas Sept.
11, State Police Supt. H. G.
Maison said today.
The classes will provide re
placements for the depart
ment's losses during the past
several months.
The training session is fol
lowed by on the job train
ing and classwork at new
duty stations that continue
through the six-month recruit
probationary period.
They'll Do It Every
1 I HOPE (, AW HE JUST KEEPS
wm -rev v"- HE DON'T MEAN I US HERE FOR ATMOS-
c!AnniV iip'ni' 1 I ME-X'M SWAV-S PHERE-HE FLUNKED
dajtm tVi rV : I BACKED ENOUGH I AT THE RID1N6
W0IN6 DOWN TO V ALREADyy ACADEMVS
J WANNA GET I 1 TY v TEX KNOWS THE SOUTH
J A-GOlN' AFORE f?l&)JJ W u-r W THAT OL' yj FORTY THAT'S
sundown"- " f PAINT IS ) (U DOWN IN THE
V ft 1 I Cs)UT ' I THE STATIONfe MIDDLE OF
I lW.KlrslUir..r.ll,.-itB.lnC-.Wldliht1.ttnrf. O 4-3 tOiQl.I ' L.
Backstairs: Tourists Pour
White House; Some Seem
By FRANK ELEAZER
United Press International
Washington - IUPD - The real
dirt to be found backstairs at
the White House these days
is that tracked in five days
a week by nearly one million
tourists a year, many of whom
apparently don't know where
they are.
"Point out the dome to me,"
they now and again ask
guards long since inured to
the fact some Americans don't
know the White House from
the Capitol building.
At the other end of Pennsyl
vania avenue meantime other
tourists are forever asking
Capitol guidas, "where does
the President live?"
The red carpets are being . . , , ,,, ..
rolled up, not out, for the , I dropped in with the other
daily tourist influx at the tourlsts and 1WU? JF a
White House minute I was about to be bar
It's not that Ike and Mamie , red r at east stopped by the
aren't hospitable. It's just that Suards lor a' serious talk.
iw rD t (vr,nnr Trouble was, I had on coat
many thousands of dollars and
thou iimnrin' lact diiu limn
with as many as 10,000 or 12,-
000 people tramping across
them daily Tuesday through
Saturday.
The record breaker was
April 16, 1957, when 13,083
men, women and children
gawked and shoved their way
OE OFFICIAL DIES
Larchmont, N.Y. IUPD - El
dridge G. Dudley, 64, retired
New York district manager of
the General Electric Co., died
Monday at the Larchmont mo
tel in Larchmont, N.Y.
Enjoy The
I'll '
Wbvnhv
S BROOK
it!: ipnin! .
STRAIGHT
BLEND
Rich ! Excep-
Kentucky! tionally
Straight light
Bourbon Kentucky
Whiskey i taste
M60
WL OLD SUNNY 9R0OK CO.. lOtllSYIUI , KY
tFS WINNING THE WEST j
ip;pp ' 'Puling bt Bttflafo Wtrd"
VAi).' """" j sSfi i ' AFTId TMC FAMOUS MHICN AKTISJT J
Time
lnM.thMOia
through public rooms of the
White House between 10 a.m.
and 12 noon, the period in
which the house is open every
day but Sunday, Monday, and
some holidays.
The Easter season always is
busy here. August is not much
of a tourist month but even so
the morning lines around the
south lawn of the White House
currently total 7,000 to 8,000
persons or more.
And the way things are
going 1960 may set a new rec
ord for White House attend
ance. Through July the total
was 644,554, about 4,000 more
than at the same time last
year. The total for 1959 was
901,564, just under the 1957
total of 964,544.
I and "e' ?" ""K?, forTmen
Viauuia uj wc wuitc uuuac
i thefe d"" ,is open sport shirt
and no jacket
As for the women, It's not
so much what they wear as
what some of them don t,
I guess the girls don't really
expect to run Into the Presi
dent or Mamie as they wander
through the executive man
sion, although quite a few da
make inquiry as to their
whereabouts. Or maybe it's
just that so many folks have
homey, informal feeling
about the Eisenhowers, al
though I don't myself recall
recently seeing Mamie in any-
Great Whiskey of
Kentucky Straight
or Kentucky
Sunny Brook tastes
better, richer than
r any other whiskeys
Prized and favored as the
' Sunny Brook rolled westward; with the settlers of the
19th Century. Today Its popularity is higher than ever.
$J60 Its smooth, superb Kentuckyltaate truly has no equal.
KENTUCKY S1IAIEHI BOtltlM WHISKEY 99 PMOF KENTUCKT MUM mttMT N WOOf . 65 6UIN NEUTUt Sf lilTt
By Jimmy Hatlo
Listening to bigdome
go western now
that he's got a
nAurU iim ice .... -v
TNAfJX AND A HA7 TIP TO
7 7A LVlCO()0 X7V.
SX. PAUL I, MINN.
Through
To Be 'Lost'
thing like short shorts and a
halter.
Souvenir hunting is no prob
lem at all, White House of
ficials report. Possibly this is
because the smallest object
not nailed down and avail
able to groping hands en route
through East, Green, Blue,
Red and State dining rooms
is a full-tize grandfather clock
that would be hard to conceal
even by one fully clothed.
Not even an ash tray is in
sight, let alone any of the
precious presidential china or
silver.
That may be why some vis
itors find the tour slightly
fruitless. For another thing,
there is nobody to explain
what is what, The guards are
police, not guides. They volun
teer nothing. They answer no
questions. One told me how
Margaret Truman's piano
pretty near crashed through
the East Room coiling before
the old place was rebuilt.
Oil portraits of past presi
dents line some of the walls.
Harry Truman's Is in the
green room. From what I hear,
Eisenhower doesn't spend a
lot of time there.
The tourists of course don't
either. There's no time to
stop anywhere. In 20 min
utes they are in, out and back
on the sidewalk out front
watching the inevitable pick
ets. My group was greeted
by a fellow with a giant sign
that said, "USA would cruci
fy Christ." I didn't stop to
find out what he meant.
IK
the Old West
Blend . .
finest of Kentucky whiskies.