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fcrnear. May 1, If 60
A MAIL TRIBUNE, Medfsrd, Or.
Monday Shop Penney's from dSi30 a.m. to 9 p.m..
TEM1EY'
Try and Stop Me
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-By BENNETT CERF-
c- C TN WOTXD WAR U. Nazi General Roramel was raising aU
J- kinds of trouble in North Africa, and the AUies were
determined w siwp him at all oasis. A very insigiuKcant
unu in me Atuea forces -consisted
of one scout,
one submachine gun and
one middle-aged cameL
The scout had been out
on a reconnaissance mis
sion for some days when
n Arab turned up at
headquarters with a n
electrifying message.
"Scout say," he reported,
"he returning at once.
Rommel captured!"
A great reception was
planned for the hero,
with a regimental hnnrl
and a couple of field marshals (all of whom have sine
penned their reminiscences) whipped up for the occacn.
When the scout and camel stumbled into camp, alone, every
body felt pretty much let down.
"Where's Rommei!" demanded the C. O. "Roumel?" re--peated
the scout. "How should I know?" "Didn't you send
Mack a message, Returning at once, Rommel captured'?"
"Heck, no! What I said was, 'Returning at once. Camel
51
I960, by Bennett Cerf. Distributed by Kin utnrM Syndicate
Matter of Fact
By Joseph Alsop
ABOUT GALLUP
AND ROCKEFELLER
New York - Investigation
here strongly confirms vne
dark suspicions of Vice Presi-
JBPI dent Richard
ivi. iNixon ana
his staff. New
York's Gov.
Nelson A.
Rock ef eller
has given up
his active can
didacy for the
Republ i can
nomination,
Joseph alSop but he has not
given up all hope of being
nominated.
The lingering Bockefcl'.er
hope is based on an entirely
posible, though improbable,
future sequence of events
The public opinion polls of the
Inquiring Dr. George Gallup
just may begin to show the
Vice President being beaten
by Sen. John F. Kennedy of
Massachusetts, or some other
Democratic candidate, by such
wide margins as 55-45, or
57-43, or even 60-40. After all,
the Kennedy margin over Nix
on was 61-31 in the Gallup
poll of July 1959. Can it not
he the same In July ihdu:
If the bottom falls out of
the Dolls in this manner, the
Republican organizations just
may name to the point 01 lor-
getting their oft repeated
pledges to the Vice President.
After all. politicians nave pan
icked before. And in that
event, where can they turn
for a winner except to Gover
nor Rockefeller?
There is slightly more foun
dation than might be sup
posed for this projection. In
brief, Senator Kennedy's lead
over the Vice President
reached at least the 55-45
mark in Dr. Gallup's last com
pleted sampling. This has been
confirmed by the statt oi xne
Gallup poll in Princeton.
-
TVR. GALLUP'S published
" results, released on April
1, showed Kennedy leading
Nixon by the less dramatic
margin of 53-47. But once
again, according to the Gallup
staff, an oddly unavowea
change has been made in the
Gallup method of preparing
published results. What is
oublished is not the naked
outcome of the last nationwide
sample. It is a composite,
average, of the most recent
sample and the immediately
preceding sample.
Thus the sample taken in
March by the Gallup poll-takers
showed Kennedy ahead of
Nixon by at least 55-45 and
perhaps a little more. But this
represented a major improve
ment on the Kennedy showing
in the February trial heat
(published as 50-50, but clear
ly somewhat different in real
ity because January results
were averaged in). When the
February sample was aver
aged with the March sample,
Kennedy had what Dr. Gal
lup, again somewhat oddly,
called a "current" lead of.
53-47.
The hitherto unavowed new
method of preparing Dr. Gal
lup's published results was
adopted last October. It has
many interesting conse
quences, too, which all poll
ticians will wish to ponder.
For instance, suppose that
Dr. GalluD's April sampling,
now heinff comDleted. shows
a steep, four-point drop $i
Cnufln ITannnfv'i lonH fiver
the Vice President. This may
conceivably be the case, be
cause of the inflammation of
the religious issue. But under
the new system, an April
sample showing a Kennedy
lead of only 51-49 will be av
prn ppH with thp more favor
able March sample. The pub
lished result will then be pre
cisely what it was month
ago, 53-47.
In this manner, while losing
ground, Senator Kennedy may
seem to be holding even. If
he merely holds even in the
April sample, on the other
hand, the published result will
be 55-45, and it will therefore
appear to show a two-point
gain. In sum, unless Dr. Gal
lnn'o npw method is well un
derstood, it can be remark
ably, although impartially
misleading.
TT WOULD have been a good
A deal better, therefore, if
the new method had been an
nounced when adopted. It
ivnn 1H he a ffnod deal better.
too, if the real value of the
polling techniques were also
more generally understood.
As an industrious spot-poller,
this reporter has concluded
that it is an exceedingly valu
able but decidedly limited
technique.
The technique will Identify
beyond doubt any truly mas
sive and deep-rooted political
phenomenon, like the high
proportion of SenFHubert H.
Humphrey's West Virginia
support wijjch he owed to
anti-Catholic prejudice. When
the Charleston, W. Va., "Ga
zette" challenged the facts on
this point that had been print
ed in this space, this reporter
made the "Gazette" editor a
fair offer. The editor was to
be convinced of the accuracy
of the facts by only two days
of joint doorbell-ringing, or
the reporter would correct
the record. The offer was not
taken up, but it still stands.
Rv the same token, the
polling technique will accur-
otoiv iripnrifv a aeciaea.
(Measurable political trend. If
I .omnia ehnurc
that large numbers of persons
who voted RepuDiican last
time mean to vote Democratic
this time, one can be sure the
outlook for Democrats is sure
ly good in that area. Then too,
the polling technique will use
fully show whether the cur
rent political atmosphere is
hrnadlv favorable to this or
that rand idate. But their tech
nique will not do what is most
f. inmn fni-'ft Tt urill nnt i
Ulieil uiaimcw w ... .....
reliably forecast, within a
point or so, the outcome of
any hard-fought, ever-changing
political contest,
(c) 1960 New York Herald
Tribune Inc.
Rochester - Most people, it
haQbeen found, are unable
to nold a camera steadQand
shoot a picture in much more
than one twenty-fifth of a second.
Siskiyou Pioneer Sites
Presents
Pop's Concert
by tht
O GO
Philharmonic Society of So. Oregon
MEDFORD SR. HIGH AUDITORIUM
3:00 P.M., SUNDAY, MAY 1
Tickets $1.00 Adults, 50c Children
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