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About Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989 | View Entire Issue (Oct. 29, 1959)
:. - . .. 4.- Tliunday, Oct. 29, If St MAIL TRIBUNf, Mdford, Or. u u v ' '-J-'.tPijr jar ' m 'I,, ,W vCKs ?-. v ill r fell I .'. 'Jtd'(X,i i It- vt I . FORTUNE TOSSED AWAY Mrs: Jnne right, Mrs. Masters is shown looking through Masters is consoled, by her husband, Her- the garbage can for the ticket. She says she : ;bert, after she discovered ,that she had remembers the number, hopes she'll be able thrown away a ticket to the Irish Hospital to collect her winnings without the actual Sweepstakes which won her $140,000. At ticket. (UPI Telephoto) To Fit in Pension F u nd Plans Bette r Tha n Stocks If ."V f - I. i 4 z 1 By ELMER C. WALZER UPI Financial Editor New York (LTD - Two invest ment experts have explored the field of pension funds and ' arrived at . a I c o n c 1 u sion S that bonds fit into those than common stocks. T h i s is a blow to what has become a general belief Kkner Waller in Wall street. The caliber of the experts lends weight to : their state ment that "a deeper analysis of the surface record of com mon stocks snows iney ao not meet the day-to-day living re quirements of the pension fund without possible liquida tion at unfavorable times." i Dennis ' N. Warters, presir 8ent, and .William M.,.Raej fecohd vice president and ac tuary of the Bankers Life x Company of Des Moines, Iowa, arrived at these conclu sions in a. joint paper released jto membership of the Society of Actuaries foit discussion1 at its annual meeting Nov. 9. ! The study shows, that since Conga-ess enacted legislation In 1942 encouraging establish ment of pension plans, more $han 50,000 qualified plans have come into being. Total funds, in these plans at the end of 1958 are estimated at 5' ;37 billion against? $3 billion n 1941. 4 X About$15 billiot of this tor tal is in the hands of life in- surance companies covering benefits promised under in sured plans and about $22 bil lion represents assets .of self insured' pension plans -administered by trusts. , ' fledging Changed Picture t For k lone time nension funds were almost entirely in fixed income securities. But Since -the war an attempt to hedge against inflation nas phanged the picture, the "ex certs assert. The exnerts' naner asked what will happen if employ ment declines instead of ris ing, if the business fails to prosper. Automation may brmg the former and merger or termination, the latter. . "No business can be' as sumed to have perpetual life let alone, perpetual growtn, sav the actuaries.' They conclude that a fixed tneoma securitv such as a hond fits into the cash re quirement of a pension fund promising benefits m nxea Hollar amounts .more easily than a common stock. "The bond." the experts as sert, "guarantees the payment of interest and principal on specified dates and the guar anteed amounts can be pro grammed to cash needs. They cite a study by the Cowles commission covering all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Results of that study showed an average dividend yield, of 5 per cent and an average price increase of 1.8 per cent or a total trend of 6.8 per cent annually for the period 1871 to 1937. . . Study Extended Through 1949 The Life Insurance Associa tion of America extended the study through 1949. The actu aries estimated the ' 6.8 per cent figure, unchanged in the extension, probably would be increased if carried to the present date because of the market rise to a new high. A comparable study on bonds showed an average yield of 5.6 per cent. The ex perts held that this was in favor of common stocks but they carried on their thesis by citing the spending on con sumer credit and other items, including mortgage debt to what may be an artificial high and perhaps unsupportable in the future. It is obvious that the in crease in borrowing cannot continue- indefinitely since eventually charges on debt would exceed available . in come," says the actuaries. "It is almost inconceivable that total consumer credit can increase at the rate of the past years as this would bring such debt to about 55 per cent of consumer disposable income. -"" "Thus we have to question whether business activity can duplicate the rate of increase of recent "years with a com mensurate effect oh the com mon stock market." High Westerlies Mixed Up; Severe Winter Seen Ahead Washington - (UPD-The high westerlies have got their di rections mixed up, and if something doesn't' put them back on normal course we're in for rough, tough, stormy ! winter. : ' Dr. Jerome Namias,' chief of- the Weather Bureau's ex tended forecasts section, re fused to predict whether these winds will or - won't straighten tip and blow right before winter comes. ". But he did offer this pos sibly reassuring bit of wea ther . lore gleaned from ex perience: Weather patterns often change between Octo ber and November. In; fact, changes in "weather regimes" occur more often in that per iod than any other, so it does not pay to predict what the winter will be like until you see what the- November pat tern is. Any Changs for Better As things stand, any change probably would be for the better. The northern half of the country irom the Rockies eastward was too hot for com fort during the summer; It also was hot in California and the southern plateau states. It was ' comparatively cool only in the far Pacific North west and the southern plains states such as Texas, Louis iana, and Arkansas. , Then the current pattern began tor emerge .in the fall The high westerlies, great rivers of air which normally flow mainly west to east, de veloped a" north-south ten dency. Successive shafts of cold polar air began invading the western and central parts of the country. ' When the high westerlies get mixed up this way, north- south channels are opened which, Namias' said. cause "stronger injection of polar air . southward and stronger injection of tropical air north ward." .:. , V ' Activ Winter Unless . . A situation like that,: with strong temperature' contrasts, breeds storms, and if nothing happens to correct- itj we're going to have "a very active winter-with "a lot of stormi ness . and -vigorous - weather changes he added. ; :i . The . disordered, westerlies produced some intense storms on the Pacific Coast a week or so ago. They were respon sible for heavy rains from New England southward just last week end. The pattern may change come November, but it looks pretty set in its ways right now. ... Namias reviewed his data for a moment. The latest stcrm bred by the pattern, he said, . should be afflicting Great Britain "with strong winds off the Atlantic." ,"Have you looked at your wire recently?" he asked. "I'd be surprised ' if t h e r e wasn't an item about it." The -reporter looked. He found a dispatch from Lon don. It said "a stiff gale bat tered Britain during the night. ..." Gales in the Antarctic have been known to reach a force of more than 100 miles an hour. 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