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About Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989 | View Entire Issue (Oct. 3, 1957)
FOUR MEDFORD (OREGON) MAIL TRIBUNE Thursday, October 3, 1957 o long-Awaited Four fit Cparter By ROBERT SHORTAL United Press Correspondent Mew York W The nation's economy enters the final three months of the year with fingers cros-cd. The long-awaited fourth quar ter upturn in business has not materialized, and businessmen now are taking a more critical look at the business picture. They are not pessimistic. No body anticipates any major re cession or wholesale unemploy ment. But neither do they look for any strong upsurge such as those which have occurred in most postwar years. Rolling Adjustment The past nine months have been marked by a rolling ad justment in industry-gains in some lines offsetting declines in the others. The over-all result has been a levelling off of eco nomic activity at a very high plateau. Key economic barometers like the gross national product, em ployment, and personal incomes have set new highs. Consumer spending is running along at rec ord levels, along with govern ment expenditures and business j capital spending. i However, with government i r-pending and business outlays for expansion levelling off, and many industries faced with an excess of production, the strong rate of growth in the economy has slowed down. Hopes Fading '"Earlier hopes that there might be a smart rebound in the economy in the final quarter are now fading, and many corporate officials are beginning to won der whether the forepart of 1958 will measure up to the levels for the corresponding period of the current year," says Standard & Poor's. Prentice - Hall said concern about the business outlook next year is growing in the face of a continued decline in business spending for expansion and in ventories two important props to U. S. prosperity since the end Upturn in-Business Hissing of World War II. Business spending has declined in only two of the 12 postwar years -1949 and 1954, both re cession years. Strength in auto production, housing construction, govern ment spending and consumer spending helped to offset the de cline in business expenditures in 1949 and 1954, preventing any serious economic downturns. Prompt Reversal Needed Prentice-Hall said "a pretty prompt reversal of gears on tight money, on federal 'spending for defense and public works, and on consumer tax cuts will be needed to shift the U. S. economy into a new uptrend before the 1958 elections." Economist A. W. Zelomek told I United Press, however, that "There is little indication that serious recessionary tendencies are in the immediate offing, de spite evidence that the peak in inflationary pressure has been passed." He said the general feeling in business circles is that the econ omy will continue on the current high plateau for some months, "and that even during the sec ond or third quarter of 1958, nothing more serious than an ir regular trend will develop." 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