abson
Sees Some
Q
BUNE
usmess
uecune
By ROGER
1. If no unforeseen event happens, President Eisenhower will
be re-nominated and re-elected
2. The Republican party has
in 1956 with President Eisenhower making a few key speeches
and promising to be an active part of the administration. He is
trained to take responsibility and enjoys it; but the President
should be relieved of speech making, entertaining, and much of
the detail work which goes with being President.
3. Competition will be very severe in 1956, and with few
exceptions will cause business profits to be less in 1956 than in
1955. Too many manufacturers, not satisfied with their present
good business, are starting to make other products and undercut
standard prices.
4. Higher wages may also be expected in 1956, and these could
reduce profits. These higher wages, however, will largely be
spent and should increase retail sales.
Increased Advertising Appropriations in 1956
5. Increased advertising appropriations will be seen in 1956.
In fact, advertising appropriations for newspapers, magazines, tele
vision, radio, and billboards have helped our prosperity, or it
would not have lasted through 1955.
6. The recent policy of the money managers in the direction
of "squeeze" will be shifted to "ease" sometime in 1956. This
reversal could put a floor under any business decline that may
start next year.
7. Liberal credits to the purchasers of houses, automobiles,
washing machines, televisions, and various other things have
bolstered prosperity and will continue to be a strong support to
many industries, through 1956 at least.
8. If the Republicans are re-elected in 1956, great sums will
continue to be spent on research and new plant expansion. The
effect could well be another "turn up" in the Babsonchart Index
of Business.
9. Despite the decline in family formations, the baby boom
will roll merrily on through 1956. The reason: More parents are
willing to have four, five, and even more youngsters. The result:
A tremendous, sustained demand for all kinds of necessities
housing, food, clothing, new schools, etc.
10. All told, I look for 1956 to be the second best business
year in history just a shade off from 1955. Predicted declines in
the key auto and residential building industries will largely be
offset by rising expenditures for roads, sewers, and schools and
by increased demand for electricity, natural gas, and foods.
Real Estate Forecast for 1956
0 11. The main handicap to retail business in 1956 will be
Intensification of the parking nuisance, but this is getting so
terrible that a reolutionary solution may be in sight. Shopping
centers are a partial remedy and will help suburban property. But
only 15 per cent of the people will live in the suburbs in 1956.
12. Cities will condemn old buildings and provide thousands
of parking l$s in 1956. As this is done, city property will again
come back. Until then we see no price improvement during 1956
In city business property.
13. Building costs will average higher through at least the
first half of 1956. This means that fewer new homes may be
built next year. '
14. With demand falling and money more expensive, specu
lative builders of new homes will have to watch their step more
closely in 1956 than in any year since the ending of World War II.
Duplex Homes Continued Demand
15. Duplex dwellings will probably continue in demand
through the whole of 1956 if they are well located. The limiting
of rents will probably be totally abolished during 1956.
16. With the trend of vacancies showing a tendency to rise,
owners of the newer and more costly apartment buildings will
find their profit margins squeezed harder in 1956 than at any time
in recent years. ' .
17. Commercial farms need not suffer during 1956. Increased
efficiency and new machinery should offset price declines,
IS. Owners of small scattered farms will suffer during 1956.
They have not the volume or capital to cut their costs to offset
the reduced prices for their crops.
19. Farmers within 10 or 15 miles of a city can beat the
game" by selling out at the increased prices which their land will
bring for subdivisions. Many more well-located close-in farms
will become subdivisions during 1956.
20 Taken all in all, the real estate situation should average
only moderately below the good level of 1955. However, activity
promises to be less and those who have been holding real estate
for speculative profits might do well to consider selling.
International Outlook and Politics
21. Russia will keep out of war with us during 1956.
22. There will be one or more small wars during 1956. Both
sides of the conflicts will try to secure help in the form of munitions
from both Russia and the United States, but none of these will
develop into serious conflicts.
23. The "cold war," now existing between Russia and the
United States, will continue through 1956.
24. The hydrogen bomb and the guided missile will be the
greatest international factors for diplomatic trading during 1956.
This trading will hold down the price of big-city property.
25. The Republicans will turn slightly "New Dealish" during
1956 and this will bring on a lively and heated Presidential cam-
Paf 26. Democrats are uncertain as to what their policy will be in
1956. Stevenson is a liberal; but more conservative than many
Democrats. Kefauver appeals to the masses, while Harriman leans
to the left. However, some "dark horse" may run off with the
Democratic nomination.
Some Taxes Will Be Reduced
27. Some taxes will be reduced during 1956. These cuts will
try to favor all voters slightly; but the largest benefits will go to
lower income groups.
28. The farm problem concerning higher price parities
will be the center of most political fights.
29. The cost of living will increase only slightly during 1956.
We, however, must not forget what weather can do to production,
prices, and even to the stock market.
30. All the above means that there is now in sight no reason
for further inflation during 1956. Certainly, I look for no run
away price climb.
Outlook For Commodities in 1956
31. 1 am not a crop expert, but my associates' forecast for 1956
is as follows: (1) Further acreage reductions that will be largely
offset by soaring yields resulting from intensified cultivation;
(2) expanded farm subsidies that will mildly bolster crop prices
and farm income compared with the 1955 averages.
32. Although, wheat and corn prices depend upon both shift
ing weather and foreign conditions, for 1956 I forecast moderately
higher prices for the major grains, based on increased subsidies
to be voted by Congrew.
33. Industrial prices will enter the new year on a high plateau
and should be well maintained to possibly firmer during the
forepart of 1956. Later, as business falters, look for selective
easing in this group.
34. Steel in 1956 will average higher in price than for all of
this year. Do not look for any price cut in this key metal, even if
business slackens.
35. Nonferrous metals in 1956 should move with the Babson
chart Index High prices in early weeks may be followed by
selective weakness. Zinc and lead may be the first to give a tip
off on the coming downtrend, but copper eventually is riding for
the greatest fall.
Frozen Food Prices May Advance
36. Processed and frozen foods should advance only slightly
in price as increased labor costs are offset by new machinery and
competition intensifies. Early firmness in textiles should be fol
lowed by some late-year weakness.
37. There will probably be more leisure time during 1956.
This should help the entertainment group, including sports, travel
and possibly the petroleum industry.
38. During 1956 I hope that school teachers will be paid more
monev. But, in order not to have increased municipal taxes, school
committees must develop some method of either improving the
efficiency of the schools, or reducing the time necessary for com
pleting studies.
39. More people will continue during 1956 to return to the
(Continued on Pag 15)
orecas
W. BABSON
in 1956.
an excellent chance of winning
United Press Full Leased
50th Year
Copco Contract Is
Approved; Clears
Way For Link Dam
$9,000,000 Project
Near California Line
The interior department Fri
day approved a 50-year contract
with the California Oregon
Power company for continued
operation of Link river dam.
The action claers the way for
construction of a $9,000,000 dam
acros stho Klamath river in Ore
gon, near the California border.
Copco received a conditional li
cense for the dam from the Fed
eral Power commission last Jan
uary. The license specified that
it was dependent on the approval
of the contract with the interior
department.
Reclamation Project
The action clears the way for
Washington by Undersecretary
of the Interior Clarence A. Davis.
The Link river dam is part of
the Klamath reclamation proj
ect near Klamath Falls.
It was constructed by Copco
and deeded to the government
under a 1917 contract, which
provides the dam be operated
to improve the output of Copco's
power plants on the Klamath
river in Oregon and California,
subject to prior demands for ir
rigation in the Klamath project.
The new 50-year contract con
tinues the same arrangement,
but in addition defines more
carefully a broader area which
can be irrigated with water re
leased from behind the dam.
Insure Operation
Davis said the contract "will
insure operation of the dam
(Link river) at all times for ir
rigation and domestic use on
existing and future federal re
clamation projects in the area."
He said it has received approval
from the Oregon and California
Klamath river commisison, and
by representatives of water user
groups.
Copco will still provide power
for pumping irrigation and drain-,
age water, Davis said, "on exist
ing and any future reclamation
projects at rates substantially
lower than those in general ef
fect throughout the company's
service area.
A. S. Cummins, president of
Copco, said Saturday approval
of the contract assures "continu
ing operation of existing plants,
vitalizing the company's invest
ment in them, and clearing the
way for the company to perfect
a license to construct a plant on
the upper Klamath river . . .
This contract and license will
make available to this company
the undeveloped power poten
tial of the upper Klamath river,
estimated as some 300,000 kilo
watts. It promises residents of
the company's service area an
adequate power supply and pro
tects the Klamath basin's water
from possible diverison to other
watersheds."
Regulate Flow
He also indicated that the de
velopment now possible will per
mit the company to provide
greater regulation of the flow of
water downstream in the Klam
ath river. The company has been
subjected to criticism for some
years for surges of water down
the Klamath caused by varying
demands for power.
The matter has been in the
courts in California, and Thurs
day the state supreme court
denied a Copco motion to re
move from Siskiyou county su
perior court jurisdiction in the
matter. The Siskiyou court
earlier had ruled the present
Klamath river dams constitute
a nuisance. The state had charged
that water fluctuations caused
by the dams had killed fish and
threatened public safety.
P. H. Parrish Retires
From Newspaper
Portland U.R Philip H.
Parrish Saturday announced his
retirement from a newspaper
career of service on both of
Portland's metropilitan dailies.
He said illness was the reason
for quitting his post as editor
of the Oregonian editorial page.
He was formerly a reporter for
the Oregon Journal.
Parrish joined the Journal in
1919 and covered the famed
D'Autremont murder trial in
Jacksonville. He served briefly
as alumni editor at Oregon State
college before going to the Ore
gonian. He has been editor of
the editorial page since 1939.
Succeeding Parrish will be
Herbert Lundy who has been
associate editor for 10 years.
Parrish will continue to serve
as an editorial consultant.
In addition to his newspaper
work, Parrish also authored two
books, one of them a standard
text in Oregon history courses.
Wire
Price 5c
Marshall Observes
75th Birthday
Pinehursx, N.C. (U.R)
Famed soldier and statesman
Gen. George C. Marshall
marked his 75th birthday
quietly Saturday but was dis
appointed when weather pre
vented the arrival of his long
time friend, Bernard Baruch.
Scores of congratulatory
messages poured in from all
over the free world to Mar
shall. He said they were ar
riving at the rate of about
"half a dozen an hour."
Elder Statesman Baruch,
who lives on a plantation near
Georgetown, S.C., had plan
ed to visit the former secre
tary of state and Army chief
of staff but could not make
it due to bad weather Friday.
Barneburg Hill
Site Bought For
Retirement Home
About 15 acres on top of
Barneburg hill will be purchased
by Rogue Valley Manor as the
site for its proposed retirement
home.
M. N. Hogan, president of the
non-profit corporation which is
planning the manor, said a sales
agreement with the owners of
the property was signed Satur
day afternoon. The agreed price
was not announced, but it was
known to be in the tens of thous
ands of dollars.
Hill. Location
Barneburg hill is located south
of Barnett rd., southeast of the
present city limits of Medford.
It is located in an area proposed
for annexation to the city. An
nexation will be decided in an
election Jan. 16.
Present owners of the prop
erty are Claude and Robert
Mclntire of the Rogue Valley
Land company, Grange Fields,
and Mrs. Maurice Spatz. They
are planning a residential devel
opment in the area, and ; are
among the petitioners" for annex
ation. The hill has been platted
and streets and lots laid out.
Further development is await
ing results of the annexation
election.
$2,000,000 Business
The area to be sold to the
Manor is located on the summit
of the hill, extending downward
for some distance. The Manor
building, to cost an estimated
$2,000,000, will be built at the
summit, with a view in all di
rections, and will be surrounded
by a landscaped area. The rest
of the hill will be used for the
residential development.
The Manor is affiliated wi'J.
the Methodist homes organiza
tion, but is a non-denominational
group which is planning the
manor as a retirement home
based on Christian ideals. Life
time occupancy rights to the
apartments will be sold in ad
vance, with monthly full-care
charges kept at a minimum.
The manor and the subdivis
ion developers will cooperate in
the installation of streets, sew
ers and water facilities, under
the sales agreement. Start of the
work is tentatively scheduled
for mid-1956. '
Archbishop Of York
Dies After Illness
York, England U.R) Dr.
Cyril Forster Garbett, Arch
bishop of York and second rank
ing prelate in the Church of Eng
land, died Saturday after a long
illness. He was 80.
A renowned humanitarian,
Garbett was outspoken on many
controversial subjects. He caused
a sensation in 1945 when he de
clared that Hitler should be shot
on sight rather than brought to
trial. . :
California , Rivers Returning To Normal
As Agencies Speed Rehabilitation Plans
San Francisco (U.R) Once
turbulant California rivers were
falling on all fronts Saturday,
giving public agencies a free
hand to speed "back-to-normal"
operations in flood-r a v a g e d
areas.' 1
Overnight tides in San Fran
cisco bay were lower than ex
pected, easing the threat to the
San Joaquin-Sacramento river
delia communities.
The San Joaquin was reported
dropping at the rate of an inch
an hour at Stockton since 7:30
ajn. Saturday.
Isleton, a farm community of
1,600 50 miles northeast of San
Francisco on the Sacramento
river, was reported "doing fine"
after waters had lapped to within
seven inches of top of the levee.
IsletoQ Civil Defense Director
MEDFORD, OREGON, SUNDAY, JANUARY 1,
Celebration Fatal
To 112 When Stone
Parapet Collapses
50 Others Injured
At A Shinto Shrine
Tokyo, Sunday (U.R) At
least 112 persons died in a tra
ditional New Year's celebration
early today when 30,000 push
ing and shoving worshippers
caused a stone parapet to col
lapse at a Shinto" Shrine. ;
Police said 50 other persons
were injured. Other estimates
put the death toll as high as
"170 and 180." A partial list'of
victims showed at least 21 wom
en among the dead.
It was the worst New Year's
disaster in recent Japanese his
tory. Traditional Pilgrimage
The six-foot stone wall col
lapsed as worshippers shoved
and pushed in the dimness of the
torch - lighted Yahiko Shinto
Shrine in northern Japan to
make the traditional New Year
pilgrimage. '
Scores were buried under rub
ble and others were crushed
under the feet of the stampeding
crowd as panic spread.
Police rushed to the scene to
restore order and rescue in
jured. The shrine is located 12 miles
south o f the city o f Niigaia
which is 160 miles northwest of
Tokyo.
The Kyodo News Agency said
the parapet collapsed while
priests in silken ceremonial
robes threw, mochi (rice cakes)
denoting good fortune to the
crowd of worshippers from the
temple entrance.
As the people surged forward
to catch the cakes, the wall col
lapsed. Many elderly men and
women and children .were in
the crowd.
Some of the pilgrims had
climbed to the top of the parapet
to escape the press of the crowd
toward the shrine just before
the wall crashed.
The disaster recalled the Jan.
2 tragedy tit the Imperial Palace
in Tokyo two years ago when
six persons were killed and
many injured in a stampede to
get into the palace grounds be
fore the gates closed.
The tragedy had a sobering
effect on the Japanese who saw
out the Year of the Sheep and
welcomed in the Year of the
Monkey in a mixture of occi
dental exuberance and Oriental
solemnity.
President Spends
Quiet New Year's
Key West, Fla. U.R) Presi
dent and Mrs. Eisenhower spent
a quiet New Year's Eve last night
in Navy Base quarters overlook
ing a flotilla of submarines after
one of the Chief Executive's most
eventful years.
The First Lady flew down
from Washington to join the
President for the New Year's
holiday week end as he recup
erates from his recent illness.
Meantime the White House
took a detached attitude toward
the new year statement by Mar
shal Nicolai Bulganin, chief of
the Russian state, calling for
new efforts to outlaw atomic
weapons.
"Don't they always issue state
ments like that on New Year's
Day?" said Press Secretary
James C. Hagerty when asked
about the Bulganin statement.
NO PAPER MONDAY .
The Mail Tribune will
not publish on Monday, Jan.
2, in observance of the New
Year's week end holiday. It
will resume publication the
following day, Tuesday.
Jan. 3.
W. B. Stewart said the river was
now 25 inches below the levee
top.
Water was reported seeping
through dikes on the San Joa
quin 15 miles southwest of Mo
desto threatening dairyland near
Hill's Ferry. Residents were re
ported in no danger, however.
The Feather river which in
undated Yuba City last week
also was reported receding.
Rescue Continues
Meanwhile, rescue workers
continued probing tons of silt
and debris for more victims of
the worst natural disaster in
northern California since the
1906 earthquake. The storm and
floods claimed at least 68 lives
28 of them in Yuba City alone.
As the region sought to return
to normalcy, President Eisen
ROLLS IN NEW YEAR Two-year-old Terri Langley, daughter of
roller skating star Ann Cavello, sees the New Year enter' at the
San Francisco Cow Palace where her mother participated in the
Roller Derby.
Il-Out Safety Drive
Pays Off With Fewer
Highway Fatalities
Chicago (U.R) Safety experts
said last night they were "elated
with reservations" about the low
number of traffic deaths during
the New Year's holiday
They noted that the rate of
traffic fatalities on the nation's
highways was running less than
three an hour, as compared with
Yule Tree Fire To
Start HD Campaign
Discarded Christmas trees will
be set ablaze Tuesday night at
the Rogue Valley Memorial site,
Barnett and Murphy rds., to
launch the annual March of
Dimes drive.
Members of the Medford
Moose lodge and Boy Scouts and
Explorers are picking up the
trees as a part of their third an
nual March of Dimes project.
Medford residents looking for
"an easy way to dispose of
Christmas trees" are asked to
place them on their front porches
or yards with a March of Dimes
donation attached to the tree.
Phoenix high school band will
provide music. Officials of the
drive, the chamber of commerce
and Moose lodge will be on hand
to assist with tree burning.
Scouts and Explorers of the
Medford area are to be at the
scout office at 1 p.m. today to
take part in the project, Dis
trict Chairman Bob Church said.
The activity will apply for
Scout service, merit badges and
ranks according to Church.
hower authorized an initial
allocation of $1,000,000 for dis
aster help. Damage has been
estimated at between $150,000,
000 and $200,000,000.
Part of this aid included 25
Army Corps of Eingineers con
tracts that now total $2,844,000,
mostly for channel clearance and
levee repair .
Repair Levee
The biggest single contract
was for $1,000,000 issued to H.
Earl Parker of Marysville for
repair of the Feather river levee
at Yuba City.
Meanwhile, Ellsworth Bunker,
president of the American Red
Cross reported after a tour of
the flood area that the Red Cross
expects to hand out -from $5,
000,000 to S7.000.000 in grants
to rehabilitate flood victims.
26 Pages
5 an hour at this stage of the
Christmas holiday period.
Rate Could Go Up
They cautioned, however, that
motorists on xne roaas auring
the wee hours of New Year's
day could
sharply.
send the rate up
As of late last night, 74 were
killed in traffic accidents. Seven
persons died in fires, one was
killed in a plane crash and 17
others died in other types of
accidents.
California and New York had
the worst traffic records with
eight fatalities each. Ohio had
six and Georgia five.
The National Safety Council
expressed hope that an all-out
safety campaign employing
troops, planes and police would
pay off. The Council has pre
dicted that 420 persons will die
in traffic accidents during the
78-hour holiday.
Uniformed- National Guards
men were called out to aid state
police in seven states and in
four of them Illinois, Kansas,
Tennessee and Louisiana planes
kept a sky patrol for dangerous
drivers.
Illinois, which recorded a
whopping 46 traffic deaths dur
ing the Christmas holiday, had
only one traffic fatality by late
yesterday afternoon.
"Very Encouraging"
Ned H. Dearborn, council
president, called the early count
"very encouraging."
The Council has predicted that
420 persons will die in auto
mishaps during the 78-hour holi
day, a rate of more than five
per .hour. If the prediction holds
true, the carnage will set a New
Year holiday record five above
the 415 counted in 1952.
Motorists were getting a lot
of help in trying to keep the
carnage down,
Tennessee waged one of the
most intense battles. It put 1,000
volunteer guardsmen and 200
jeeps and ambulances on, the
state's highways,
states highways. Pennsylvania
reported an "unprecedented"
1,200 state police would be on
duty tonight.
Many police ' departments in
stalled portable drunkometers in
squad cars and ordered quick
jailing of drunks. Chicago and
other cities planned to turn
policemen into chauffeurs if nec
essary to get celebrants hoie
safely.
Weather
FORECAST: Clondy with rain
and occasionally gusty, souther
ly winds this morning, becom
ing showery this afternoon and
evening. Monday, cooler and
variable cloudiness with occa
sional showers. High today, 48
to 50; Low tonight, 35 to 37;
high Mondav, 42 to 45.
TEMPERATURE
Highest Yesterday 46
Lowest Test. Morn. 21
United Press Full Leased Wire
No. 242
County Courts To
Send Resolution To
Congress This Week
Asks Engineers To Make
Study Of River Basin
Pressure for flood control
measures in the Rogue river
basin mounted steadily toward
the end of last week.
The county courts of Jackson
and Josephine counties were pre4
paring to send a resolution to
Congress asking that the Army
corps of engineers make "a de
tailed study of the Rogue river
basin with positive recommenda
tion as to what measures should
be adopted to prevent or allevi
ate future damage from floods."
Strong Recommendation
The Josephine County Cham
ber of Commerce heard a strong
recommendation for a high dam
across the Rogue at Lewis creek
from Victor Boehl, president of
the Rogue Valley Irrigation as
sociation. Soil conservationists met and
asked for reports from flood vic
tims as to damage to farms,
homes and businesses to support
demands for flood control action.
The resolution of the two
county courts, dated Jan. 3, has
been prepared and signed by
several of the six officials, with
the others expected to sign it
in time for it to be forwarded
to Washington Tuesday. Its pre
amble pointed out that areas
of the two counties adjacent to
the Rogue are periodically sub
jected to floods which do an
enfous amount of damage to
and which constitute a peril to
the inhabitants.
Growing Area
It stated that the area is con
tinuing to grow in population
and economic development, and
that "floods of the future, even
of the present magnitude,, will
do more damage unless positive
action is taken to control the
flood water of the Rogue
river ..."
The resolution requested Con
gress to appropriate funds to
permit the Army engineers to
make a detailed survey and
make recommendations. Copies
of the resolution are being sent
to the Senate and House com
mittees on public works, to the
chief of engineers, and to Ore
gon's two senators and four rep
resentatives. According to figures compiled
last week by the bureau of recla
mation, the flood was the second-worst
in the recorded history
of the Rogue river, the only
worse one being in 1861 when
early railroad figures indicated
there was a maximum river flow
of 175,000 cubic feet per second
at Grants Pass.
In 1927, the flow was 117,000
cfs; in 1945 it was 69,000, and
this year the estimate was 136,
000 cfs. Normal flow is 1,200
to 1,600 cfs.
The bureau estimated that a
dam at Lewis creek, providing
for flood storage of 225,000 acre
feet of water, could have re
duced the 1955 flood damage by
78 per cent.
A higher dam at Emigrant
reservoir, which now holds some
8,000 acre feet, probably would
have kept Bear creek within its
-banks, according to the bureau's
estimate. The raising of Emi
grant dam is part of the Talent
reclamation project, which has
been approved by congress.
Boehl, who spoke at a special
chamber meeting in Grants Pass
Thursday, also said the Lewis
creek dam, as planned in the
controversial "Plan A" for Rogue
basin development, in conjunc
tion with other developments,
would have done much to lower
the flood level during the floods
of Christmas week.
Passes Motion
Following his talk, the cham
ber acting -as a "committee of
the whole," passed a motion re
questing the newly-formed state
water resources board and the
Army engineers for further sur
veys toward flood controL It
was also planned that the cham- ,
ber board of directors would
meet with sports and recreation
al groups, where opposition to
a high dam largely originated.
Coquille, Ore. '(U.R) Georee
Ulett Saturday announced his
resignation as state senator from
I oqume lor business and fcealia
' reason. -