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About Heppner gazette-times. (Heppner, Or.) 1925-current | View Entire Issue (Dec. 31, 1942)
Heppner Gazette Times, December 31, 1942 5 w THUMBNAIL OUTLOOK FOR 1943 ..1. Total Business: Defense production will be up sharply (plus 50); non -defense down sharply (minus 33), accompanied by a drastic standardization of products. 2. Employment: The above also applies to employment, if we do not include the armed forces. 3. Farm Income: Will be up 5 in 1943 over 1942. 4. Dividends and Business Earnings: Have passed their peoks and will be lower in 1943 than in 1942. 5. Labor There will be practically no strikes until the end of the war and wages will gradually become stabilized. 6. Commodity Prices: Will strengthen somewhat, especially the prices of manufactured goods. Commodity price inexes will indicate far less than the actual advance. 7. Taxes: Will be felt severely, especially by the white-collar group who can expect no pay increases. 8. Retail Trade: Will be 12 off in physical volume in 1943 compared with 1942. 9. High-grade Bonds: Should decline, but good stocks should sell higher. 10. Creeping Inflation: Will continue throughout 1943. BABSON PARK, Mass., Dec. 31 the armed forces need. MERCIAL AVIATION. Big profits labor leaders will be put in the in business. The government may Events, are moving at breath-tak- Thus far the OPA has made no are possible' for alert businessmen dog house. require new businesses, farmers do ing speed. Never before has the distinction between essentials and and investors. MONEY RATES siring to increase acreage and es- world been in the midst of such a non-essentials. Not only is this a uring 1943 our wives will begin There may be a slight increase in pecially employers desiring to in-far-reaching turmoil. Within the very difficult thing to do, but it is to use dried eggs, dehydrated veg- short-term money rates during crease their sales forces to get per next hour news might break that good politics to class every one etables, frozen meats and other in- 1943; but there will be little or no mits. Sales organizations would be wil change the , whole course of alike. The war against inflation, novations. This does not mean that change in the rates that banks the first to be treated to "birth con history. Nevertheless, it is vitally however, will never be won in this canned goods will be displaced, but charge their customers. Money trol." We may expect to see in 1943 important to keep your perspective. wey.The only way ot keep women I do forecast a revolution in con-, rates are now managed by the gov- experiments in "zoned markets" by ment program with every piece of from buying unnecessary clothes, nection with prefabricated houses, ernment even more closely than limiting the distance that goods To change your business or invest- for instance, is to let the prices of using plywood, aluminum, plastics the prices of commodities. The idea, can be shipped, war news is utmost folly. A good these clothes increase to a point and rubber; the buying, preserving however, that money ratec will al- The paid leaders of the farm example of this was portrayed when where the price tag hurts. There- and use of foods. There will be more ways continue low is just as foolish groups are fighting ceiling prices the United States opened up a sec- fore, during 1943, I forecast a re- experimentts in national planning as were the forecasts of ten years on arm products but I believe the ond front in North Africa. That classification of the essentials and with government guarantees, but ago that money would permanently farmers would be willing to have morning many thousands of self-ap- non-essentials. Prices will be held with the return of the Republicans remain on a high basis. The pendu- a ceiling provided they could also pointed commentators were con- down on the essentials, but retail- to power after this Global war, we lum has always swung and it will be assured a floor. I am certain that vinced that the war was going to ers will be allowed to charge high- shall see less, rather than more, continue to swing after World War farmers are more reasonable and1 last at least five years. Yet by mid- er for non-essentials .There will be rationing, price fixing and regula- H is over. Whether or not banks ar more patriottic than the lobby night of that same day these same a little increase in living costs, but tions. Some, time it will dawn upon should borrow from the Federal Re- ists in Washington who pretend to commentators could see nothing but care; in buying and less waste can the American voters that the gov- serve in order to buy government represent them. There will be no a short war and a quick victory, more than offset any increases. ernment cannot give the people bonds will be debated during 1943. decline in purchasing power. Men, Let us now, therefore, confine this SECURITY PRICES anything that it does not first or Banks that do this will temporarily and especially women, in the farm- Outlook to probabilities. I believe that the Dow-Jones stock last take away from them. There can make a profit, but whether this ing ard munitions districts, will RETAIL TRADE averages will go to points during not be a leveling of living stan- will work out as a profit or loss in have more money even after the The first quarter of 1943 should 1943 higher than anything seen in dards without a lowering of living the end is questionable. In the long yment of taxes than they have equal the first quarter of 1942; 1942; also that bond yields and standards. run, very few banks, corporations or ever had before. The delivery of considering the entire year, a de- stock yields will tend to come clos- FURTHER RATIONING individuals make money by bor- goods should be easier in 1943 than cline of 12 percent is probable. Just er together. This may mean a decline 1943 will see more changes in ci- rowing money. in 1942 due to an improved tire and what will happen depends on two in price of low-coupon, long-term vilian life than any year since the The bondel debt of the Federal gasoline situation, things: first ,upon the quantity of bonds and an increose in the price Revolutionary war. Wise the those Government is now $90 billions, WAR OUTLOOK goods; and second, to what extent of many stocks. This especially ap- who are first to prepare for these 0r an increase of $67 billions since t must be realized that a great consumers are willing to take sub- plies to stocks of companies which changes. When one studies the tre- the Roosevelt administration came movement in the resources of the stitutes Washington talks about are not handicapped by cumulative mendous purchases which the gov- into power. By the end of 1943, this Axis powers has taken place during 300,000 retailers being ppt out of preferred issues or bond issues. Re- ernment is making, they make one debt may stand at about $150 bil- 1942. Where they were short of daw business- but I believe this is entire- member ,the London Stock Market shudder. For instance, the army re- Hons. Some of it, of course, will be matreials they now with he ex ly unnecessary. If landlords will be is witnessing the highest prices it cently purchased 30 million pounds raised by selling aiddtional Victory cepttion of a very few commodit asy on rents, as sensible ones has seen for five years. Certainly, of salt, 4 million pounds of mus- bonds to the public and institutions, ies have a surplus supply. For in should be practically all retailers incestors are sound asleep in the tard and 2 million pounds of black The amount will largely depend stance, in 1939 the Axis powers can run on a skeleton force and United States .Even the utilities be- pepper simply to fill a few month's upon whether or not compulsory hadi no rubber and today they have keen alive until the war is over gin to look better in spite of com- requirements. Dried fruits are bound saving is adopted. I forecastt, how- 90 percent of the world's supply; business a(rain should be good, ing inflatiton. to be short in 1943, especially apri- ever, that the major portion of this in 1925 they hadi only 25 percent wnen DUSineSS again snouiu &uw o ... . , , ... , . t, kniivita , 7 wnt nf th m The- hone of America lies not with Kir concerns but with small men must be protected in order to K,,cinAjmAn These small business UUSiJICBMIlCll. A . .. t ,,,. preserve democracy, i "" v. ' , n. , o; of rlo- moeracv defends on small and so- Tj inefficient manufacturers and retnilers to "clutter up" the econo- mV situation Large units lead ul- t- t for to tvranny As this is be- timate y y y 1Q43 coming recogmeu, see some reai neip Kivtm roal hem ffiven the Small retailers. ' g of cast win PPy , . countiy. nie 1 to iSSS. hut retailers in certain M Scions are bound to suffer, ohter sectio -n ig43 Atter paying ' l" hgve kf fTlT'0 income $36 billions more out 01 tneir mco 9 tnan tney "aa re grants and taxes in law, u y amusements WILL p MrhU filling stations, garages, lum ber yards, household appliances and hardware stores will sutler most. LIVING COSTS COMMODITY PRICES AND Prices of practically all commod ities are at their low with the ex ception of certain ones that are now Ka f-, Tndir. the. Far East andAfrica As we are shipping loads e 'A t,T-T,i; tn these noints. ships may bring back supplies of penters .masons ,painters and plas- be subject to the same regulations its height until well into 1943. The cocoa coffee olive oil, dried fruits, terers. The honeymoon of the build- when desiring to change jobs. plants manufacturing big bombers cork ' antimony, lead,' manganese, ing trades is over for the duration. POLITICAL SITUATION are not yet completed, shipbuilding hides and skins' mercury molybde- After the war, however, building Certainly we are entering 1943 is just getting into its stride and num zinc an dother commodities, should come back again with a with a much bettter political sit- thousands of factories are still re Throughout 1943 there will be a bang although prefabricated houses uation than existed a year ago. This toolng. 1943, however, should wit continued pressure to pierce price may put some union labor out of does not mean' that the new con- ness a transition from consttruction ceilings. These ceilings will be kept business. Hence do npt sacrifice good gressmen are conservative some to production. I, therefore, visualize down farly well on goods which real estate or farms during 1943. are more radical in certain ways a drastic re-shuffle of sub-contrac- Some Lines Better, Some Down in '43, Babson Forecasts ine most important quesiuou lor the investor during 1943 will be, "Shall I bup peace stocks or war stocks?" Of course ,the safest thing . . 1 il m. - is in hnv neace, stocks. The war 7 T ,." " "i. .1 stocks include airplane manufactur- ers, the steels, coppers and other metols and machine tools; while the peace stocks include building sup- plies, motors, rubbers, household ap- pliances and the stocks of most oth- er companies which are now suffer- r ii, r u., lllS ui uuouicm. omc bet is that companies which are now prospering most during the war u suffgj. the most te ft war. while companies which suffer most during the war will prosper most after the war. There are some con- Df course, such as the mer- chandising companies, which should do well both during the war and railroads wiU do well during th ewar-but after- , , , ,, nl.. XT nDPI ncmims DinLiisiini iTu uaixu rtoitxiE, New building during 1943 will fall off. Government buildings, both of factories and cantonments ,will decline while residential buliding will continue to be held down. This means that not only will the manu- facturers o fbuilding supplies and contractors have a poor year in 1943 but there is liable to be more r less unemployment among car- Besides, there may be legislation than their predecessors but they tors, of labor and of communities requirding the demolition of build- will combine with the conservative in general. This means hardships ings over 75 years old Southern Democrats on questions for management and for the men NEW INDUSTRIES of taxation and war matters. Look- women workers. Some communities 1943 will see the greatest crop of ing back over 1942, it becomes evi- now doing well will become ghost new scientific developments that dent that the tax situation was the towns; while other sleeping cities any year ever witnessed. These most upseting feaure on business will become busy beehives, may revolutionize agriculture, in- and invesments. The markets were Taking all in all, industrial pro dustry and commerce even to a at their worst directly after the duction should climb into new high greater extent than the war wlil Morgenthau recommendation af a during 1943, averaging about 210 revolutionize governments, politics 55 normal tax. When the House percent of the 1935-39 level. This nad human relations. Among the voted a 45 tax buiness began to would leave only about $70 billions new industries I especially have in pick up and even security prices for domestic consumer goods, com mind the SYNTHETICS for making had a real move when the Senate pared with about $78 billions in artificial products better than the dropped the ratet to 40. 1942. This meant that only about natural; PLASTICS for displacing Recent visits to Washington con- 10 percent of the output of the metals and wood; FERTILIZERS vince me that the Treasury has durable goods industry and 60 per and PHOTOSYNTHESIS to revolu- temporarily lost its influence with cent of the output of the non-dur-tionize agriculture; PHOTOELEC- Congress and that the 1943 tax bill able goods industry will be avail- 1 TRIC CELLS to make machines wiH be written by Congress itself able for civilian use in 1943. This think; PREFABRICATED houses; and will be fairly conservatve. I estimate is on a per unit basis with AIR CONDITIONING; RADIO am much nterested in reports that no allowance for price inflation. HEATING which will dispense with Honorable James Byrne, the new FAILURES all radiators and oil burners; AU- economic dictator, is to be put in Business failures in 1942 amount -TOMATIC TYPING; UNWOVEN charge. For the first time, it is rea- ed to $105 millions and I fear these TEXTILES; ULTRA-MICRO-SCOP- sonable to hope that a sales tax will be increased during 1943. If so RY which will greatly help in the perhaps under some other name it will be due to manufactures be elimination of disease. NEW AL- wiH be enacted in 1943. The farm- ing unable to secure necessary raw LOYS with marvelous strength and ers will continue to have as much materials or substitutes and mer lightness; HARNESSING THE SUN, influence in the 1943 Congress as chants being unable to get a sup TTDES and WINDS; COSMIC RAY heretofore, but the honeymoon of ply of goods. In addition to the nor to supplant our power houses; AU- the labor and other blocs is tern- mal casualties and those addition TOMATIC POtWER; NEW MILI- porarily at an end. 1943 will see al ones due to the war, I expect a TARY ARMAMENTS and COM- verv few waoe raises and certain certain "birth control movement" w ouu guinea, wmic uio jviuuan typewriters, hardware and rubber will still be on stoves, bicycles, goods. I should not be surprised to an !;,. J: 1 t see the rationing of dairv products. ' ,, ' certain furniture, paper supplies, manufactured foods, farm equip- ment and possibly clothing and shoes during 1943. Some of my associates think there will be rationing of eggs, cheese and meats, but present statis- tics do not indicate the necessity of fhia nortainlv tVio u r, wviuLij, wm-a v l - rationing of cereals, citrus products and fresh fruits that cannot be shipped. What is most needed is the ration- ing of labor union leaders and a lengthening of the working week as the labor week now averages only 42.5 hours even after over- ttime payments. Of course, this is a hot the administration does not like to touch. I forcast, however, that 1943 will see a real ;n .. una uuevwu. 111c puwu ui the War Labor Board will either be curbed or the Board will become much more conservative. Manpow- er (including women) will be al- located. Private recduiting of labor may be curtailed. Farmers, manu- facturers and other employers may be obliged to go to the U. S. em- ployment service when desiring dittional help while employees may money must De raisea rrom me banks and chiefly from the large banks.. This, of course, means in flation sooner or later. nrtn-n. nmll . r.n-vr CROP SITUATION T, T With normal weather conditions there is every reason to believe that more crops will be raised in this country in 1943 than in 1942 and that farmers should benefit ac- cordingtly. On the other hand, there always is the possibility of bad i nn ;i..,i: fi i wtciuit?! v;lhiuiuuii uii:iuiiiii& iiuuua and droughts. The laree amount of wheat, corn and other grains in storage- however, should heln off- set any crop failure in 1943. The wheat yield for 1942 will be about one billion bushels, second only to the' crop of 1915, while the corn chop for 1942 will break all records, amounting to about 3,250,- 000,000 bushels. The cotton crop for 1942 amounts to only 13,400,000 hales, hu this is nerfectlv satisfae- ji. 1 xory considering me large amoum, of cotton in storage. Without doubt, the theory of "winning the peace with food" is sound. Farmers have a legitimate reason for expecting good treatment uring the remainder of the war. After the war, their celebration will be over. INDUSTRAL PRODUCTION Readers will remember that our big war production will not reach - ore a percent oi tne tin ore, 10 percent of the manganese ore, 8 percent of the lead ore and 6 percent of the world's flax. Toay the Axis. powers have 66 percent of the baux- ite 44 percent of the iron ore, 73 percent of the tin, 35 percent of the manganese, 21 percent of the lead, 35 percent of the flax and a large percentage of the world's oil. These figures show that time is not ne- cessarilv on our side. The success - , 01 tfle united more on making every sacrifice, opinions are that Ge: The best opinions are that Ger- many will be brought to her knees, probably through the lack of oil, in late 1943 or early in 1944 and that lt wil1 ke another year to fin- ish JaPan- As Germany does not want to see Japan a world power, she may endeavor to join the Unit- 'er Nations in putting Japan back where sto was forty years ago. x This would mean not. rinlv flranini 016 Japanese out of China, the i'niiiPPmes and the Uutch Jwst In- dies, but also making them give up n;uap4an1S(,formosa' " nue on age ' even ' A G-T want ad will do wonders if you have anything to sell, trade or exchange. Results every time. Buy War Bonds Every Pay Day Let's Double Our Quota V
