OPINION
Wallowa.com
Wednesday, July 7, 2021
A5
LAYIN’ IT
ON THE
LINE
Steve Kerby
Bulls,
bears and
the deer
“I
have a million dollars in the
stock market because if I lose
a million dollars, I don’t per-
sonally care.” Suze Orman, as once
quoted in the New York Times.
Many fi nancial experts sell the path
to success by using their all-knowing
system. Suze Orman, Dave Ramsey,
Jim Kramer and most of the players in
the fi nancial expertise game, who write
books or have talk shows or podcasts,
have made fortunes giving people advice.
Suze Orman’s quote sets the tone for
many of these experts; she makes money
giving them advice, money from those
searching for help.
Let me break down the concept of
investing to a very basic level. Animals
can help us understand how the market
dictates movement, up or down.
The fi nancial world can seem much
like a zoo. Over the years, many terms
now used derived from animals you may
fi nd at the zoo. The reason is simple —
the animal terms are easy for people to
relate to. For example, a bear hibernates,
so if the market is in decline or negativity
about investing is in circulation, it might
be time not to invest or “hibernate.” The
bull represents aggression and growth;
thus, a bull market signifi es growth.
In years past, many fi nancial terms
have used animals as a synonym, such
as a duck, which meant fl oating along
without any direction and doing noth-
ing except quacking. Or a fi sh that meant
to take a chance and buy any stock that
looked reasonable regardless of any spe-
cifi c goal. Over time, we have three ani-
mal terms as surviving topics.
Bear: The word normally associated
with a bear market is pessimism. In other
words, a feeling that the market will go
down or may stay down. Investors fear-
ing a down market are negative to invest-
ing. Or, like a bear, they go to sleep and
do not invest. Many short-term investors
often confuse a bear market with a cor-
rection, and a market correction is usu-
ally a shorter time period of about 1-3
months.
Bull: A bull market is just the oppo-
site of a bear market. Bulls are aggres-
sive and think the market will grow and
increase. Just like a bull, the market is
expected to be hard to control and is
heading up. Bull markets are optimistic
and confi dent; bulls thrust their horns up
in the air signifying a belief in growth in
the market.
Deer: Not often used by many inves-
tors but still meaningful. A deer market
is a market doing nothing, simply stay-
ing neutral or fl at. It can be a time of low
activity with a specifi c defi nition much
like the bull and bear market defi nitions:
timidity. The market is not trending in
any real direction, staying fl at. As inves-
tors, most people will follow trends, up,
down or neutral. It all depends on your
view of what the market will do.
The best approach to investing might
be to have your goals evaluated and your
investments redirected to an allocation
that makes sense over the long run. There
is an old saying about investing in the
stock market: “The bulls make money,
the bears make money, but the pigs get
slaughtered.”
Investing for specifi c goals is a solid
approach. As you edge closer to your
anticipated goal, many smart investors
begin the move toward safety. Annu-
ities can be a solid choice for you when it
becomes your turn to run to safety.
For the most part, watching fi nancial
television shows or videocasts is a harm-
less habit. You may glean a few pieces of
wisdom here and there or discover a via-
ble retirement and income strategy. Con-
suming this type of media content can
also help you keep money matters top
of mind. Still, if you are within 10 years
of retirement, you should consider fi nd-
ing an expert in the “spend-down” part of
fi nances.
Remember the Golden Rule many
professional advisers and experts do not
want you to know. The reason they do
not want you to know this secret is if you
did, you would no longer need theirs or
anyone else’s advice.
Everyone at some time in their life
runs to safety. Maybe it is time for you to
re-think your retirement vehicles?
———
As an avid outdoorsman, Joseph and
the Wallowa area have been a big part
of Steve Kerby’s life since 1964. Steve
is a Syndicated Columnists member, a
national organization committed to a
fully transparent approach to money
management. With over 50 years in the
fi nancial services industry, Steve special-
izes and focuses on each individual cli-
ent’s goals. Visit stevekerby.retirevillage.
com or call 503-936-3535 for more.
Consider what it means to be an American
ON LIBERTY
Devin Patton
n Congress, July 4, 1776
“WHEN in the Course of human
Events, it becomes necessary for one
People to dissolve the Political Bands which
have connected them with another, and to
assume among the Powers of the Earth, the
separate and equal Station to which the Laws
of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them,
a decent Respect to the Opinions of Mankind
requires that they should declare the causes
which impel them to the Separation.
“We hold these Truths to be self-evi-
dent, that all Men are created equal, that
they are endowed by their Creator with cer-
tain unalienable Rights, that among these are
Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness
— That to secure these Rights, Governments
are instituted among Men, deriving their just
Powers from the Consent of the Governed,
that whenever any Form of Government
becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the
Right of the People to alter or to abolish it,
and to institute new Government, laying its
Foundation on such Principles, and organiz-
ing its Powers in such Form, as to them shall
seem most likely to eff ect their Safety and
Happiness. …”
As we refl ect on the celebration of our
nation’s Independence Day, it seems pru-
dent to consider what exactly it means to
be a citizen of the United States of Amer-
ica. Growing up, my wife was often encour-
aged (required) by her parents to write short
I
essays any time she was home from school
in honor of a public holiday, with the objec-
tive of cultivating a richer understanding of
our nation’s history and values.
Since July 4th always occurred during
summer break, research and writing on the
topic of Independence Day was generally left
for in-school assignments. Many of us mem-
orized some (or all) of our nation’s found-
ing documents during our time in school, but
unfortunately today people know very lit-
tle about these documents, or our govern-
ment in general. A 2017 CNN article enti-
tled “Americans know literally nothing about
the Constitution” cited polling from the Uni-
versity of Pennsylvania that exposed the dis-
heartening condition of civil ignorance in our
country. The research found that only about
one in four Americans could name all three
branches of the government. One in four.
This year, my wife and I had the honor
of helping our 5-year-old daughter begin to
memorize the preamble to the Declaration
of Independence. Children are such sponges.
It inspired my wife and I to recommit these
lines to memory as well, but sadly the data
suggest that those who take the time to mem-
orize and learn about our founding docu-
ments are in the minority.
As I ponder what it means to be an Amer-
ican, I can readily see values of liberty, inde-
pendence and freedom coursing through
both the Declaration of Independence as well
as our Constitution. These ideals are import-
ant, but I assert they are not supreme. We
read, tucked in the last line of the Declara-
tion of Independence, these weighty words:
“And for the support of this Declaration,
with a fi rm Reliance on the Protection of
divine Providence, we mutually pledge to
each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our
sacred Honor.”
With fi rm reliance on the protection of
divine providence, we pledge, to each other,
our lives, fortunes, and our sacred honor.
One after another, each of the signers of the
Declaration approached the table to sign
what was, in the words of Pennsylvania’s
Benjamin Rush, “believed by many to be our
own death warrants.”
These are not the words of anarchist reb-
els seeking to “live their best life” free of
responsibility and the hindrances of social
structures or law. These are the words of
devoted kinsmen, united not by blood, skin
tone or social class, but by common purpose
and conviction.
I ask you, in this present time of racial,
gender, political and cultural tension, are
you willing to consider what it means to
be an American? Will you consider what it
would look like to be united not by blood or
skin color or common hobbies or geograph-
ical location, but by a deep unity in pur-
pose, conviction and brotherly love? Pause
to contemplate the magnitude of pledging to
another your life, fortune, and sacred honor
in order to support the tenets of our founding
documents.
The weekend festivities are over, but we
are left with the opportunity to remember,
presently and for years to come, the impor-
tance of our nation’s founding principles as
well as the sacrifi ces required in order to pro-
tect them. Patriots of this day continue to
pledge their lives in defense of liberty, the
same kind of liberty that allows us to burn
our nation’s fl ag, protest our soldiers and riot
in the name of “peace.”
Greater love hath no man than this, that a
man lay down his life for his friends.
———
Devin Patton is a third-generation Wal-
lowa County native whose pastimes include
the study of ag economics, history and free
thought.
Oregon needs an independent voice in D.C.
OTHER VIEWS
Kevin Frazier
n the 2019 legislative year, there were
236 Democrats in the U.S. House of
Representatives, four of whom were
from Oregon. Out of those 236, though, the
Oregonians were nearly indistinguishable
from the rest of the Democratic block.
Reps. Suzanne Bonamici, Earl Blu-
menauer, and Peter DeFazio all recorded
nearly perfect party-line records; CQ Press
reported their party unity scores as 99 out
of 100; Rep. Kurt Schrader came in at 93.
Comparatively, on the other side of the
aisle, then-Rep. Greg Walden had a far
lower party-unity score of just 81.
On the whole, these scores go to show
that Oregonians have lacked an independent
voice in D.C. Sure, Oregon’s Democratic
representatives have spoken out against
their party from time to time and, though
less frequently, even voted against their
ideological colleagues; but, from a voting
record perspective, there’s nothing distinc-
tive about the state’s congressional dele-
gates — especially on the Democratic side.
In defense of Oregon’s Democratic del-
egates, they’re just following a much larger
I
trend. The average party unity score in 2019
for House Democrats was 97.6 — up from
75.8 in 1983.
Oregonians have a chance to elect a
voice, rather than an echo, in their sixth
congressional district.
Now more than ever, independent voices
in the House have a chance to sway the
conversation by virtue of the fact that nei-
ther party has a controlling presence in the
chamber. Right now, there’s 219 Demo-
crats, 212 Republicans and four vacancies.
Electing independent representatives in a
handful of districts would upend politics as
usual by forcing both parties to cater to this
party-free caucus.
Of course, the odds of state legislators
drawing an independent district are low. It’s
in the interest of both parties to draw “safe”
seats. These are seats with such skewed
party registration diff erentials that it’s a
Sisyphean act for someone from the other
side to run a credible campaign.
These sorts of seats save both par-
ties money because the general elections
are so uncompetitive. They also reinforce
the faulty idea that we’re stuck with two
options when it comes to our elected offi -
cials and, therefore, entrench the dominance
of the two parties.
So as legislators start to redistrict, Dem-
ocrats will push for a map that has fi ve safe,
blue seats and that off ers the Republicans
one safe, red seat; Republicans will push for
a four-two map. Neither will advocate for a
purple district.
That’s why the rest of us, the voters of
Oregon, must do so.
A competitive district in Oregon will
give at least some Oregonians a meaningful
choice every election cycle. The two par-
ties will have to put forth their best candi-
dates, and third party or nonaffi liated can-
didates may even have a chance at running
competitive races. This district can become
an example of the sort of democratic com-
petition that voters have long been denied
due to closed primaries, gerrymandered dis-
tricts and undue infl uence aff orded to ideo-
logically exclusive parties.
If just a few other states take this brave
approach of thwarting party eff orts to draw
safe seats, then we could see the emergence
of U.S. Representatives capable of off ering
their voice and not merely an echo of the
party line.
Our democracy is not broken; it’s fi xed.
The rules, the game board and the players
are tilted to two sides.
Let’s create space for an independent
voice in Oregon again; someone who can
truthfully share these same lines from Sen.
Wayne Morse: “I will exercise an indepen-
dence of judgment based on the evidence
of each issue. I will weigh the views of my
constituents and party, but cast my vote
free of political pressure and unmoved by
threats of loss of political support.”
———
Kevin Frazier was raised in Washington
County. He is pursuing a law degree at the Uni-
versity of California, Berkeley School of Law.