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About East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current | View Entire Issue (May 21, 2022)
A8 OREGON East Oregonian Saturday, May 21, 2022 Oregon forecasts a Avian fl u epidemic reaches wild birds $3B kicker in 2024 By DOUGLAS PERRY The Oregonian By PETER WONG Oregon Capital Bureau SALEM — Taxes kept rolling into Oregon’s coff ers at record amounts this year, but state economists say much of that money is likely to go back to taxpayers in 2024 in record credits against their state tax bills. While not forecasting an economic downturn soon, the economists say that if it happens in 2023 or 2024, Oregon’s tax collec- tions could drop by as much as 20% — and the state’s discretionary budget still relies largely on personal and corporate income taxes. Still, shortly after the state’s quarterly economic and revenue forecast was released Wednesday, May 18, Gov. Kate Brown said the forecast will yield slightly more money that can be spent on one-time needs in the next state budget cycle in 2023-25. Brown said in a statement: “The good news is that the continued strength in the economy will allow the Legislature to look at addi- tional one-time investments in the coming budget cycle — like those we’ve recently made in housing, behavioral health and child care — to further spur growth and support working families, so that all Oregonians see and feel the benefi ts of our economic bounce back.” Though Brown leaves offi ce on Jan. 9, 2023, her administration will prepare most of the next state budget that goes to the Legislature. Whoever is elected governor Nov. 8 will have until Feb. 1 to propose changes. Even allowing for $1.9 billion in credits against taxes after the 2019-21 budget cycle, state econo- mist Mark McMullen said Oregon still collected $1.2 billion more than economists projected a year ago, when they prepared a forecast for the current two-year budget. Though McMullen said the trend is similar in other states dependent on income taxes, their gains were 35% to 40% above forecasts; Oregon’s was 70%. “We never really could have imagined the sort of things we have seen in the past couple of months. What that has left us with is unprecedented balances for the current cycle,” he told lawmakers on the House and Senate revenue committees. “Those are largely, but not entirely, offset by a larger kicker in 2023.” McMullen also added, “We’re going to do our best to explain how we could possibly be this stupid to make this kind of forecast- ing error in the outlook.” Forecast: $3 billion kicker The latest projections are for a record “kicker” of $3 billion in credits to taxpay- ers against their 2023 tax bills — paid out when they fi le returns in spring 2024 — and $931 million in excess corporate income taxes that will go automatically into the state school fund. Under a 1979 law, which voters wrote into the Oregon Constit ution in 2000, taxpayers get a “kicker” when actual tax collec- tions exceed 2% of the fore- casted amounts at the time that lawmakers approve the two-year budget. The rebate covers the entire excess, not just the amount above 2%. No other state has a simi- lar rebate law. McMullen said the princi- pal reason tax collections are higher now is that higher-in- come taxpayers are cashing in on capital gains, which are profi ts from the sale of assets such as stock. Unlike the federal tax code, which off ers a tax break, Oregon taxes capital gains as ordi- nary income with a top rate of 9.9%. Some taxpay- ers may anticipate federal changes that will increase their taxes. Based on a conference call with economists from other states the previous day, McMullen said: “The trend is the same; it’s not an Oregon phenome- non. We are seeing it across the board. It’s a lot higher than our 2% threshold for the kicker, which made a dramatic change for the outlook for 2023-25.” Working group to draft plans for drone management in parks P V I H t u o b a g n i k l a t y B . n o i t a c i d e m f o p l e h East Oregonian SALEM — Oregon Parks and Recreation Department is convening a workgroup to draft criteria for managing drone take-off s and landings in state parks and along the ocean shore. Adopting the formal administrative rules began in January, but department Director Lisa Sumption paused the process to allow the group to conduct research and suggest ways to develop maps, according to a recent news release from OPRD. State parks and recreation invited members to the work- group who represent a wide range of interests and exper- tise, including conservation organizations, drone enthu- siasts and trail users. The workgroup, which will report its results to Sumption, fi rst has to draft criteria for loca- tions allowing and restricting drone take-off s and landings. Then park managers will apply the criteria to create maps showing the proposed sites in state parks and along the ocean shore. Sumption’s move to hit pause came after a conver- sation with the Oregon State Parks and Recreation Commission and members of the public at an April 13, commission meeting. The decision follows a two-month public rulemaking process that generated much public feedback in support and crit- ical of the proposed rules. “Drones are growing in popularity as a way to get outside and enjoy parks,” said Guy Rodrigue, OPRD central resources manager, who will convene the workgroup. “This workgroup gives us a chance to hear from a diverse group of stakeholders on the best way to balance provid- ing places for drone pilots to capture photos while also protecting wildlife and park lands.” Once the drone crite- ria and maps are drafted and delivered to Sumption, the department expects to reconvene a Rule Advi- sory Committee and restart the process of amending the Oregon Administrative Rules. The committee will be able to refer to the criteria and maps as part of the process of drafting rules for drone pilots, hobbyists and the general public. The Oregon State Parks and Recreation Commission has the task of approving the amended rules. Oregon has no state park rules that specifi cally prohibit people from fl ying a drone in an Oregon state park, though Federal Avia- tion Authority rules apply. However, some park manag- ers have created temporary limits on the places and times a person can use a drone to protect sensitive plants and animals as well as public and private property. OPRD cannot adopt rules specifi cally related to drones without following the formal public process for amending the Oregon Administrative Rules. Updates on the project and more information about fl ying drones is online at bit. ly/3M7xfNU. SALEM — Avian fl u has been detected in wild birds in Oregon. Several Canada goose goslings in Lane County, along with an osprey and a red-tailed hawk, have tested positive for the deadly bird disease, Oregon Fish and Wildlife reported Wednes- day, May 18. This follows detection of the highly contagious virus earlier this month in a back- yard fl ock in Linn County. That was Oregon’s first confi rmed avian-fl u case in seven years. “We knew (it) was coming our way after a bald eagle in British Colum- bia tested positive in early March,” state veterinar- ian Ryan Scholz said in an Oregon Department of Agriculture statement. The goslings were collected in Eugene’s Alton Baker Park, the osprey in Eugene and hawk at Dorena Reservoir near Cottage Grove. Humans are at very little risk of contracting or spread- ing avian fl u, also known as H5N1, but it can happen. In April, a man who was working on a Colorado farm with infected poultry was found to have the virus. He remained “largely asymp- tomatic,” the Colorado Department of Health and Environment reported. People can be infected when saliva, mucus or feces from an infected bird gets into their eyes, nose or mouth. Most of the viruses that fall into the bird-fl u category do not sicken humans. But those that do, such as H5N1, John Bazemore/The Associated Press, File A bald eagle sits on a nest in March 2007 overlooking Lake Oconee near Greensboro, Geor- gia. The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife reported Wednesday, May 18, 2022, that avian fl u had been detected in wild birds in the Willamette Valley. AVIAN FLU The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife cautions Oregonians “to avoid close contact with waterfowl (ducks and geese) this spring and summer. This includes feeding waterfowl, which congregates suscep- tible birds and enables the disease to spread between birds more easily.” The agency advises people to avoid touching dead birds or birds that appear sick — and to notify the can be quite deadly. Over the past two decades, reports the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, “19 countries have reported more than 860 total human infec- tions with (H5N1) viruses to agency by calling 866-968- 2600 or emailing to Wildlife. Health@odfw.oregon.gov. People with domesticated backyard birds are asked to be extra-vigilant and in- crease their safety measures in handling their birds. It remains safe to eat poul- try that has been properly handled and cooked, experts point out. Cooking poultry and eggs to an internal temperature of 165 degrees Fahrenheit kills all avian-fl u viruses and other bacteria and viruses. the World Health Organiza- tion, with about 53% of those resulting in death.” For months, Europe has been enduring, in the words of Germany’s federal animal-disease agency, its “strongest avian fl u epidemic ever.” Avian flu can be cata- strophic to commercial bird populations, as well as devastating to wild birds and domesticated back- yard birds, but the poten- tial impact in Oregon at this point remains little more than guesswork. “This is a novel strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza that has some unique qualities associated with its virulence in that it is aff ecting a large number of species (68 so far) and it is causing mortalities among many of its wild avian hosts, a characteristic we do not see in most (such) outbreaks,” state wildlife veterinarian Colin Gillin told The Orego- nian in an email. “Europe and Asia have seen similar high wild bird mortalities.” People with HIV are our neighbors. 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