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About The Oregon statesman. (Salem, Or.) 1916-1980 | View Entire Issue (Dec. 31, 1953)
Babson Predicts: Major Slump In First-Half Odds Said 10-1 on i - - j Half; If Business Drops 10 Per Cent Chain-Reaction Depression Feared By ROGER W. BABSON (Internationally Knows Business Commentator and Advisor) I do not now believe in the theory of most economists that : business will fall off 10 per cent in 1954, with a greater decline in net earnings. My feeling is that everyone will unite forces to hold up business, at least during the first half, to its approximate 1953 average. This can be done by expanding research, increasing ad vertising appropriations, extending further credits, and obtaining labor's co-operation. But, I say something much more important than the above; namely, if business should slump 10 per cent, the decline would probably not stop at 10 per cent. Too many business concerns and individuals are working on a very narrow and slim margin. The decline in employment, with resulting business losses which a 10 per cent decline in gross would cause, could result in millions of ' families being unable to pay their bills and installment obligations. This could set off a chain reaction, which could send business down 10 per cent to 30 per cent more, with a corresponding de cline in the stock market, commodity prices, and real estate. In this latter case, the Eisenhower Administration would suffer as did the Hoover Administration. ftlost Communities in "Strong Position" ( i I - In view of this possible serious alternative, I have contacted the leading newspaper publishers as to the attitude of their re spective communities. Of these, over 970 have replied as follows: The people of 30 communities are discouraged and want to liqui date; 297 communities are optimistic and want to buy and invest more; 643 are row content and in a strong position, but are waiting until they see how 1954 develops. Due to the results of this survey, I believe the chances are 10 to one that at least the first half of l 1954 ( WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD. . -Below are 25 definite" forecasts which, in any case, should prove correct for the first six months of 1954. My forecast for the second six months will appear in this paper next June. No World War in First Half of 1954 1. There will be no. World War in the first half of 1954. 2. The Dow-Jones Industrial Stock Average will be less on June 30, 1954, than on January 1, 1954. 3. Taxes will be lowered by expiring laws. 4. The price of most commodities will be lower on June 30, 1954. 5. The Eisenhower "Honeymoon" is fast ending and he will have a hard time controlling Congress during the next six nonths. 6. Retail sales can be kept up by manufacturers and mer chants spending more money on advertising, selling, and develop ing new products. --' "; 7. The U. S. population will continue its present growth and the best prospects for sales in 1954 will be the "teen-agers." , S. Interest rates during the first six months of 1954 should average about as at present, except on the renewal of low-rate loans. Farm Land Prices May Slip 9. Farm lands', except near cities, will sell for less during the first half of 1954, when farmers' profits will begin to decline. . . 10. The Central and. Southwest will not suffer drought as in 1953. 11. There will be more fear of World War III as years go on. People will gradually move out of certain large cities. Nearby farm land will be split up. A rise in the price of certain fringe farm land is certain. 12. The U. S. Government will give less money to the Euro pean and other nations direct; but will help them through the United Nations. 13. There will be fewer employed next June the total take-home-pay will be less than last June. This, however, may be a good thing for the morale of the nation. : 14. The present Administration will suffer much opposition to attempts to reduce tariffs if profits decline or unemployment increases. Bad Strike Seen as Probability 15. The Administration and vamp the Taft-Hartley Bill during 1954; but bad strikes are coming. 16. I am no weather-prophet, but experts expect a warmer winter ior the eastern portion of the U. S. and a colder Florida. 17. Canada will continue to boom during the first half of 1954, but this may be a good time to take profits on Canadian inyest- ments. r 18. The above may also apply to Southern California and its airplane and movie industriesoth may have reached their peaks ; ior the present -L 19. Automobiles will be harder to sell and easier to buy dur ing the first half of 1954. Both the automobile stocks and the cars will be in less demand. There will be more bargains in used cars, discounts on new cars, especially cars of the "independent" manufacturers. v 20. Florida may have killing frosts during the next few months. This will cheer up California, Arizona, and Texas. , 21. The Korean situation will remain about as is as the Chinaman says, "much talkie, no shootie." Cabinet Resignations Believed Likely 22. There will be one or two resignations from the Eisenhower" "businessmen's Cabinet," replaced by "politicians." All is not going too welL The President is hot used to being pressured by lobbies. 23. The first halfot 1954 should be your best time to get out of debt or at lest reduce your debt. Remember that most bankers are in the bus ness of "loaning umbrellas when the sun is shining, and calling them in when it rsins." Moreover, you can not blame them because the umbrellas really belong to the de positors, who-also will want them on rainy days! Operate so you ,can clean up bank loans once during 1954. 24. tThe companies which will prosper most are those which have inaugurated effective labor-saving programs. Most manufac turers are learning that they cannot beat labor through mere strikes. They are winning only as they purchase new labor-saving machinery, spend more money on resenrch and on well-directed advertising. 23. There may be some further inflation in 1954; but perceit agewise to the total national output it should , not help the stock market. " , What Will Ei-"boner Do? a I have promised to answer the following four questions: 1. Is Eisenhower to take the advice of Assistant President Adams, representing certain Republican leaders, and turn to the left? Or, will he st'ck to his conservative election phtform? Answer: He willstick to his election platform. 2. To put the question in a more practical way: Will 1954 be a year of reform and economic adjustment as promised by Presi dent Eisenhower, or will he give the country more inflition, and - further pliy Snt3 Cteus to labor, farm, high tariff and other groups? ' Answer: He is Iv:nirg t'a:t "economic reforms" must be grtdnsL . : 3. Will he run the risk of losing Congress in 1954 and the election of 1S56 TOR A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE, AS . DID HOOVER IN 1932? Or, Will he-succumb to the temptation of changing his policy with an attempt to "save his party"? Answer: He will run tbe rik.ef I'xiw Congress in 1954, and the chance U ran a?atn in ?56. '-. : - 4. Is a "middle-of-the-road' policy prretical? Will it serve both groups, or no group? ' - ; . Answer: Tea, it is practical for working a gradual change, and it should serve both grps. vt . ; - j (Capyris tat I9S3, PvkUshcn FlnutcUI Bnreaa. tec)' Business 'Unlikely' '54 'Fairly Good' First the Labor Leaders will try to re i ! POUNDED 1651 , 103RD YEAR Washington newsmen interpret the comments of Secretary of State John Foster Dulles at a press conference Tuesday , as warning Red China of trouble if it openly intervenes in the war in Indochina. Of eourse Red China is intervening as a supplier and base for the Vietminh rebels in Indochina; and the United States is serving as banker and supplier for the French and Viet nam forces. Dulles warned that any renewal of hostilities in Korea or a Chinese Communist entry in In dochina would bring a U. S. re action not necessarily confined to the particular area the Commu nists choose to make the theatre of their new aggression." The common interpretation is that the U. s. then would launch naval and aerial warfare against China itself, perhaps unleashing some of its new weapons. Dulles should take care lest he be accused of starting a "Dulles war." Republican partisans called our intervention in Korea "Tru man war. We wonder, too, if the event occurs which Dulles warus against whether the ad ministration would move to make resistance a United Nations en terprise, or would ask Congress to declare war formally on Red China. Surely it will not expose itself to the criticisms which Re publicans used against Truman. It is safe to say, however, that Dulles used this strong language in the hope that it would deter the Red Chinese from further military (Continued on editorial page, 4.) Gary Cooper Hollywood's Boxof f ice King o HOLLYWOOD W Slim, 'slow talking Gary Cooper, who won this year's top Oscar, Wednesday was named the boxof f ice king as well Motion Picture Herald's 22nd an nual poll of movie exhibitors se lected Cooper as the No. 1 'attrac tion . in , film theaters. The movie veteran has placed in the top 10 fourteen times, but this is the first time he has loped off the winner. Cooper displaced Martin and Lewis, who held top honors in 1952. The zany comics, who soared to fjpne largely through their TV appearances, slipped to second place. John Wayne, who starred in ac tion films and the divorce courts, retained his No. 3 position. He was the top man in 1950 and 1951. Allan Ladd, who once before was among the top 10, made a rapid return from 16th to No. 4. He knocked Bing Crosby down a notch to fifth. The groaner held ths No. 1 place the longest of any star (1944-43. Marilyn Monroe, who added a new dimension to sex on the screen won her first boxoffice' recogni tion by placing sixth on the list. She and Susan Hayward (repeat ing as No. 9) were the only act resses in a field heavily laden with cowpokes and comics. ' The top 10 was rounded out by James Stewart (No. 7), Bob Hope (No. 8) and Randolph Scott (No. 10). Temperature Slides to 28 It was chilly in Salem Wednes day.; The mercury dipped down to 28 degrees in early morning and only climbed to 37 for the day's high at mid-afterncon. V Fog reduced visibility "to zero in . early morning and the white stuff hung on, although thinner, to see the day out. f Forecast for today, calls for light rain and warmer tempera tures. Can You Spell 1, CQ0 Words? Starting , next Wednesday, Jan. 6. The Oregon Statesman will publish 20 words on Page 1 daily for 50 "days. They will comprise therbasis -for oral semi-finals " and finals in the 1954 Statesinan-KSLM Mid-Valley Spelling Contest! . The words are offered as a daily stimulus no composite "st of them will be available. All are from ' standard text books. - . - Eigfty-three s c h o'o 1 s and nearly 4,000 seventh and eighth grade pupils will take part in the contest the fourth one of its kind. The progress and results of the competition will be an interesting and ex clusive feature of- " Yor Home Newspaper . CUT T 12 PAGES 'Watchnight' i i ' " - i Grouped around a small organ at the Pilgrim Holiness Church here are participants in the three-day i midwinter convention of young people from Pilgrim Holiness Churches in Western Oregon and Wash ington. The Rev. William S. Deal, Salem, is in charge of the convention which will conclude tonight with a watchnlght prayer service. Shown above from left to right are Gladys Caller, Marysville, Was Rebecca Story, Salem; Elaine Cox, Medford; Roy Dworschak, executive youth secretary, Eu geneTand William Parker, Portland. (Statesman photo.) Knowland Wary of Ike'siEugeneCafe Defense Job Shift Plan ! Pickets March WASHINGTON (JP) The Republican leader of the Senate, Sen. Knowland of California, said Wednesday the administration's plan to channel more defense orders into centers of unemployment is disappointing and "too wide." Knowland said he would back legislation to limit the program, already under a drumfire of criticism from the South. Thus the White House was con-', fronted with a top level split on policy on the eve of a vital con gressional session in which the GOP will hold only a shaky mar gin of control. 'My own belief," Knowland told a news conference, "is that the order is still too wide and needs curtailment. It' still appears to me that on the set-aside provision, the percenage is not spelled out." That was' a reference to a fea ture of the plan to set aside por tions of defense orders for areas where there is a labor . surplus. Contractors in those areas could qualify for the work by meeting prices established by competitive bids in other areas not suffering from unemployment. Presidential Press Secretary James C. Hagerty said Tuesday 20 to 30 per cent of some orders would be earmarked for areas cf serious unemployment. Knowland said 20 or 30 per cent is "far too much," and there will "definitely be some legislation" on it after Congress reconvenes next week. The administration plan, a modi fied version, of one set up in the Truman administration, was put into operation Nov. 4. Presioent Eisenhower gave it an endorse ment and a push Tuesday at the J temporary White House jn Augus fta, Ga. Deetz Applies For License Statesman Newi Srrvlce CANBY Elmer Deetz, i re- cently adjudged guilty of selling milk without a license, has served notice he will take the case to court himself if the State Agricul ture Department refuses to grant the license for which he now has applied. Deetz, apparently anticipating the department will refuse his ap plication on the grounds that his machinery does not meet require ments, wrote the department that "records show I have achieved purity standards' required. He termed requirements for specific machinery "capricious," and asked for a hearing as provid ed by law. Pen Parolee Kidnaps Cop, Recaptured MONTECA, Calif. Police Tuesday captured Carl D. Smith, 22, a prison parolee from " Med ford, Ore., after a car in which he forced a. policeman to drive him crashed into a power .pole. According to Dist. Atty! Chester Watson of Stockton, Smith' had been paroled from San Quentin prison, but jumped parole. Policeman Robert Khan arrest ed Smith at gunpoint and headed him towards a parked police car- P.nt ' Smith lmnrkp1 lh mn frnm from his, pocket and ordered Khan to drive him .away in the police car. - . Khan complied, but the: vehicle crashed into the pole at high speed. Khan, who suffered head and chest injuries, was dazed but Smith fled despite face and head etifx" Smith was washing bknd from bis face at a lawn,, faucet when sheriffs deputi: spotted 'him.; He threw away, his ; pistol and1 sur Th Oregon Statesman, SaUxn, Oregon, Thursday, .December 31, 1953 to Include Church Delegates is . k i - s 9 , Kjr Driver Caught As Car Rolls. Seriously Hurt Twenty - seven - year-old Robert Eck of 3380 Winola St., was seri ously injured ..Wednesday after noon when his panel truck col lided with a car at 14th and Lee streets and flipped over twice. He suffered a fractured skull and was taken to Salem Memorial' Hospital, but later was trans ferred to Providence Hospital in Portland where he underwent brain surgery last night. Hospital attendants there said he was not on the critical list Police said Eek's truck collided with a car driven by Richard Gchring, 45, of 4144 Hager St. shortly before 4 p.m. The truck was traveling west on Lee Street and Gehring's 1949 Ford north on 14th street, police reported. , Eck was injured when his head apparently was caught be- tween the door and the frame of the truck. The vehicle landed on its left side. . Citizens had removed Eck from the wreck before police and first aidmen arrived. There were no passengers either vehicle. in was smashed and the front end of the car was badly damaged, po- lice said. Both were towed. MEAT CONFERENCE SET CORVAtLIS UP! A meat mark eting conference sponsored by the Oregon State College Extension Service will be held here Jan. 6-7. Today's Statesman . Ryan Reports on U.S.S.R. 2 Valley news 3 Editorials, features 4" Society, women's .6 Farm news 7 ' Sports . 8, 9 Comics 9 Radio, TV 10 Classified ads 10, 11 Markets ..... 12 W atphiiight Services Sch eduled Tonight in Many Salem Churches By VAN EISENHUT Church Editor, The Statesman ' New Year's eve watchnight services are scheduled tonight in many Salem area churches, and a few congregations have sched uled a worship hour Friday morn. Early evening programs will include social hours, songs, games and films but all services will dbnclude. with a period of devo tion and prayer shortly before midnight The following churches have announced New Year's programs: Bthel Baptist choir program, 9 p.ml, fellowship and refresh ments 10 p.m.; worship, 11 p.m. C?lvzry Baptist program starts at 9 p.m. with a consecra tion service from 11 o'clock to midnight . . Capitol Baptist program at &i Despite Ban EUGENE W) - Picketing of the Paul Bunyan Burger Restaurant j here continued Wednesday despite j an order by r red O. bcherer, state ; labor examiner, that it be stopped. (Story on page 2. Scherer issued the erder Tues day to the AFL Culinary Alliance under the state's new anti-picket-1 ing law. But the union said it had not yet received a copy of the ' order. . - - , ! The law savs a union raav nnt ! picket to organize workers. Mr. j and Mrs. Julius Gilbertson. who! own the restaurant,, contend the picketing js to coerce employes.andl deny them the right to decide whether they want to join the un ion. However, the union insists-a ma- ;'ority of the restaurant employes ! trict . . . The only alternatives were members prior to last May, j to one-way streets in the heavy and that the owners refused to bar-! traffic centers are a system of no gain. r 1 lefWurns, a prohibition of down- After two heannas Scherer uo- held the employees. Earlier he is-! sued a similar anti-picketing order! against the AFL Culinary union in ! its dispute with the Cave Shop restaurant at Grants Pass. But the ; union appealed the order and j picketing .continues pending a de-' cision by Circuit Judge O. J. Mil-' lard. The AFL and OO contend the law is unconsitutioral and have ' said they will Scarry their f ight j against it to the Stale Supreme r Court if necessary. ' ; I WiVkll I flnfC! 1 OlIUlllU.CI O Posts Bond ST. LOUIS UP Former Police Lt. Louis Shoulders, - accused of lying to a grand jury seeking the nlcoinrr COnn AAA f r.nniilnn.i, Greenlease ransom money, surrendered Wed-1 nesday to face a federal charge of perjury. Shoulders, who appeared to be in a jocular mood, went to the federal marshal's office with his attorney. Henry G. Morris. He im-1 mediateiy posted 510.000 bond be - fore U. S. Commissioner Edwin J. sean ana was reieasea. He is to appear before federal authorities at Kansas City at a, Jl 7T i.- iT -r a ' 3 indicted him there Tuesday, say- ing he testified falsely on how he handled suitcases containing the ransom money. Less than half of the $600,000 paid by Robert Green- lease Sr. was recovered. p.m. with worship service at 11 o'clock. t Joseph's Catholic no Newj Yerr's ve service. Regular Sun- drv mass schedule Friday. ! c-4 tr- ' .. ,. i SL Vincent dePaul's Cnthobc no service scheduled on News Year's eve but the regular Sun day mass schedule will be fol lowed Friday, Christian and Missionary Al liance program at 10 p.m. with communion service at midnight First Christian Social hour starting at 9 p.m. with youth groups in charge of worship. Garden Road Christian Con gregational business meeting at 8 p.m. followed by a social per iod and worship service at mid-? night , j. Knight Memeriar . Congrega tional program at 9 p.m. with watchnight service it midnight PRICE 5c New Marking Ordered For One-Way Grid Survey by Officials Brings Gill for . More Signs, Repainting of Arrows By ROBERT E. GANGWARE City Editor, The Statesman Better marking of the one-way street grid in downto Salem was ordered Wednesday after an arrow-to-arrow spection by a party of top city and state highway officials. Scores of new signs and repainted street arrows will fe ture the authorized improvements, and some of the installati will start "immediately," declared Mayor Alfred W. Loucks. Although planned by the city administration several weeks ago, the grid survey actually came in the wake of a petition movement which in the past two days has claimed more than 400 signatures of citizens opposing the one-way street grid in the downtown disj trict. In response to the petitions, officials reiterated Wednesday they, think the grid, which went into effect Oct. 21, has not yet had a fair trial. Fears Traffic Snarls Mayor Loucks said, "If we were to go back to two-way streets right now, I feel sure it would result in serious loss to those with investments in downtown Salem, would produce greater traffic snarls and tend to push shoppers outside the area." State Highway Engineer R. H. 1 Baldock stressed that his depart ment has helped set up the grid only at the city's request, since the original recommendation for a one-way city street grid was in cluded in the state traffic plan for Salem's new bridge, bypass route, one-way highway couplets and other features. Baldock Defends Plan But Baldock had this to say Wednesday: "The city would be making a serious mistake to abandon this -way. grid; By adopting the grid, SalemTia. "taken posiUve ac- tion against traffic congestion and toward the holding of busi ness in a central downtown dis- town parking on the streets on both." (Additional details on page 12) I I if I mA r 11 Till ilf AtPre-Boid LuncheonTalk ; LOS ANGELES OP If UCLA . doesn't do better in the Rose Bowl Friday than it did Wednesday at i its pre-bowl luncheon it's Michi- : gan State by a mile. The Bruin Club was to prrsent j a trophy to All-America back .ul Cameron. An appropria'e ,sp3cch was made extouing cam?ron s merits but the president of the , scek re.elcclion n,xt y,ar he an. club had to tell Cameron that the nounce(j Wednesday engraver wasn't through with, the j Day was elected m 1950 to repre cup .and that it would be along t ,arkson pmrntv in th sn- i later- Toastmaster Sam Baiter opened hre with it isn t the function of a toastmaster to bore you, but to in troduce you to people who will." Then he couldnt find the list of dignitaries he was to introduce. The UCLA band, playing Ger- : shwin's "Rhapsody in Blue." went silent as a page was turned and there jrst weren t any more notes Ths music had been misDlaced. UCLA coach Red Sanders' mic-1 rophone went dead .while he was speakin?. Finally, he shouted: .an ? heaf e back there. ..... u 'No- came the chrous. "You're not missing anything," Sanders assured one and all. First Evangelical United Breth ' ren Film at 8 p.m. Meditation nd communion starting at ll 0 clock. Central Lutheran PTOgram starts at 9 p.m. followed by de- nJ t w r.r, i service at 11 p.m sponsored by ' church youth. St John's Lutheran Worship service from 7:30 to 8:30 p.m. Morning service at 10:30 o'clock Friday. . First Methodist recreation program starting at 9 p.ro, Wor- i ship at midnight in the sanctu ary. . : . Leslie Methodist social time starting at 8:30 p.m. Communion at 11 p.m. Salvation Army covered dish dinner at 6:30 p.m. followed by a sochl hour and worship ser vice at 11 p.m. No. 276 CIO Aid Rejects Ike's Call By NORMAN WALKER WASHINGTON I - A top Ci staff member Wednesday refii. . to accept a post on an advisor board to which he had been namep by President Eisenhower. ! Stanley H. Ruttenberg, CIO tre search and education director, wrote the President rejecting a:; appointment as member of the In ternational Development Advisory Board, which advises the govern ment on its program for giving technical aid to underdeveloped countries. Ruttenberg said he never heard of his appointment until he read about it in newspapers and then checked with the White House. He said it was a vacancy caused by Eisenhower's failure to reappoint another CIO man. No Check in Advance "It seems inconceivable to me.' beTrt ftTwnHo ttnfaf S tJ dta7 thl mS Ruttenberg wrote the Presidi-nt ques tion of my appointment in advance of its publication either with me or with the appropriate officers ol the CIO." Ruttenberg's refusal came aboul two weeks after AFL President George Meany quit as a member of the foreign economic program ? Public Advisory Committee. Blamed Stassen ! Meany charged that foreign on erations administrator Harold L. i Stassen had fired many American i union representatives employed in government aid offices abroar. Meany also said Stassen had fai'cd to encourage labor unions in oth-r countries. However, it was learned Wed nesday that Meany has since talk- e tn stasseQ and is due to con- fer with him anain next wt;k. on t MEDFORD. Ui State Sen. Ein Day, Gold Hill Republican, will not , u t umia m nil At. uuirui j 1 1 n 111 iiiil ate. He had served in the House , the year before. Day, a rancher, concerned him- self chiefly with weather control and school legislation. At the last . . m a session ne was cnairman oi me Public Health Commission, vice chairman of the State and Fed eral Aflfairs Committee and a member of the Education. Agricul ture and Public Welfare and Insti tutions con:mMtees. max. Ti.n. Pre Salem : 37 28 .M . Portland ... 44 33 JOO San Francirea : ... 59 3 .00 Chicago ' 29 IS trac New York 48 40 .00 Willamette River 4.7 feet FORECAST from U. S. weather bureau. McNary field. Salem): Cloudy this morning with light rain this alternoon and tonight High to day near 44 and low tonight near 36. Terrperature at 12:01 a. m. was V. degrees. SALEM PRECIPITATION Since Start of Weather Year Sept This Year Lat Yeah Norm.. 19.7 11.22 llf Animal Crackers 8v WARREN GOOORICH a 01 "May I hove this done? -4