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About The daily Astorian. (Astoria, Or.) 1961-current | View Entire Issue (Jan. 14, 2020)
A4 THE ASTORIAN • TuESdAy, JANuARy 14, 2020 OPINION editor@dailyastorian.com KARI BORGEN Publisher DERRICK DePLEDGE Editor Founded in 1873 JEREMY FELDMAN Circulation Manager JOHN D. BRUIJN Production Manager CARL EARL Systems Manager GUEST COLUMN Broader perspective needed on river treaty L ast May, the U.S. and Canada began negotiations to modernize the Columbia River Treaty — a 1964 agreement that defines the way both countries share the Northwest’s greatest waterway. The treaty required British Columbia to build three dams in the upper portion of the watershed and use them to control river flows to increase hydropower gen- eration at American dams and prevent downstream flooding, primarily in the greater Portland area. In return, the U.S. paid about $534 million for the first 60 years of flood control and agreed for the life of the treaty to return 50% GRAEME LEE of power enhancements ROWLANDS to British Columbia. This annual share of hydroelectricity, known as the “Cana- dian Entitlement,” is a theoretical quan- tity calculated in advance by both coun- tries as the maximum amount possible in a system optimized for power gen- eration. In most years since the 1990s, this calculation has exceeded actual U.S. generation due to domestic factors influ- encing the operation of American dams, including integration with other power sources and legal obligations to provide river flows suitable for struggling fish populations. Now that the treaty is up for revision, public utility districts and others are insisting that the U.S. negotiating team led by the State Department must secure deep cuts to the Canadian Entitlement — or terminate the agreement. It’s fair to argue that payments to British Columbia should be aligned more closely with actual benefits. How- ever, those advocating steep reductions in the entitlement seem to have exagger- ated the imbalance and have neglected to consider the treaty’s full context. In doing so, they may be setting Americans up for failure, with a one-sided perspec- tive and unrealistic expectations. At the Dec. 16 “Treaty Town Hall” event hosted by the State Department, Douglas County PUD Manager Gary Ivory epitomized this misleading nar- rative when he told negotiators, “we believe that anything less than a 90% reduction (of the entitlement) is going to be a failure on your part.” This statement implies that the enti- Wikimedia Commons The Grand Coulee Dam on the Columbia River in Washington state is one of the 28 dams included in the U.S.-Canada treaty. tlement is 10 times larger than it should be. But estimates provided by the bina- tional Permanent Engineering Board charged with executing the treaty offer a different story. Since 2004, the enti- tlement has on average been just 2.37 times greater than actual generation. This suggests a reduction of only about 58% to align it with actual power gen- eration, not the 90% that PUDs have argued for. Furthermore, changes to the treaty will be determined through a complex multiissue negotiation, which inherently involves compromise. Canadian water management does more than enhance power production and manage flood risk. It gives the U.S. flexibility to oper- ate dams especially Grand Coulee — for other purposes, including irrigated agri- culture, ecosystem health, commercial navigation and recreation. The treaty required British Colum- bia to flood four of its most ecologi- cally and agriculturally rich valleys, forcibly evicting thousands of people and destroying rural communities. Fur- thermore, Canadian Basin residents are still forced to compromise domes- tic priorities to abide by treaty opera- tions. The Canadian Entitlement is the only ongoing benefit British Columbia receives for this. As such, it is exceed- ingly unlikely that Canadian negotiators will agree to provide downstream ser- vices and concede to American demands for a drastically reduced Canadian Enti- tlement. At the same time, the U.S. is not in a position to easily walk away from the treaty, as PUDs have suggested it should do. By taking such an extreme stance that is out of touch with transboundary reali- ties, PUDs are setting an impossible bar for the U.S. negotiating team to reach. If the public believes the negotiation is as simple as playing tough with Canada to get a better deal for electric ratepayers, they are going to be sorely disappointed when they don’t get anything close to the near-elimination of payments that PUDs have told them to expect. Historically, many Columbia Basin maps have cut the watershed off at the international boundary. This car- tographic fragmentation is reflec- tive of an attitude that persists today, which believes that the watershed is best shared through a strict division of national interests. If we are going to find an agreement for the future that both countries can live with, we will need to reject this divisive philosophy. Americans and Canadians need to understand and value all of the interests at hand, including those of their neigh- bors across the border. Graeme Lee Rowlands is a researcher and contractor who has traveled the length of the Columbia River and worked on both the American and Canadian sides. GUEST COLUMN Four questions control legislative session’s fate F our questions will determine the fate of the 2020 Oregon Legislature. Several days of legislative commit- tee meetings this week will provide the first clues to the answers. 1. The big one: Will the Legislature pass climate change legislation? After the demise of House Bill 2020 in the 2019 Legislature, Democrats hoped to have a new version ready for discussion and public hearings this fall. Instead, LC 19, the Senate’s carbon cap- and-trade bill, got its first public airing on Monday — three weeks before the Legislature convenes for its 35-day session. In last year’s session, HB 2020 lacked the cru- cial 16th vote among Dem- DICK ocrats for passage in the HUGHES Senate, despite advocates’ insistence to the contrary. Senate Republicans were unanimously opposed. They twice walked out to stymie its passage. That could happen again. For a carbon bill to pass, the changes must be A) adequate to win over at least one of the three recalcitrant Democratic senators; B) sufficiently responsive to rural concerns that Republicans won’t walk out, even if they don’t vote for it; and C) strong enough that hardcore Democratic environ- mentalists still support it. 2. A related question: What will the tone be? Especially in the Senate, the 2019 ses- sion ended in disappointment, disillusion- ment and disgust. On all sides, there were misunderstandings and perceptions of bro- ken promises over HB 2020. State House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, and others counseled that a timeout sorely was needed and that advo- cates should spend time hearing the con- cerns of opponents, especially in rural Oregon. The acrimony within the Capitol extended to back-and-forth complaints about legislators’ conduct — again, pri- marily among senators. The Senate and House conduct committees are expected to meet this week to continue dealing with George Plaven/Capital Press Supporters of cap and trade rally outside the Capitol last February. those complaints. In response to a damning report a year ago by the state Bureau of Labor and Industries, legislative leaders vowed to change the Capitol culture, particularly by doing more to prevent sexual harassment. But the broader goal of creating a respect- ful workplace will be extremely chal- lenging in the political atmosphere of the Capitol. The Legislature has revised its person- nel policies, created an Equity Office and hired Jackie Sandmeyer as acting legisla- tive equity officer. Rep. Ron Noble, R-Mc- Minnville, was among those who praised Sandmeyer’s appointment based on their previous work. In a recent email distributed to legis- lative folks, Sandmeyer said the Equity Office “will serve as an independent resource for anyone who has concerns related to discrimination, harassment, retal- iation or general respectful workplace cul- ture. In that role and as outlined by HB 3377, this office will provide training; perform climate surveys; oversee exter- nal investigations; and serve as a place for individuals to confidentially report con- cerns about behavior, receive process counseling, and/or generally inquire about concerning behavior.” Meanwhile, national and state election politics will hang over the session. Even more than usual, partisans will be angling to make themselves look good and deprive others of that opportunity. The filing dead- line for the 2020 elections is just days after the session ends. A number of legislators are seek- ing reelection. In addition, two high-pro- file legislators recently resigned to run for higher office — Sen. Cliff Bentz, R-On- tario, for Congress, and former House Democratic Leader Jennifer Williamson, of Portland, for secretary of state. Outgo- ing Rep. Lynn Findley, R-Vale, was sworn in Thursday to fill Bentz’s seat and will take over his committee assignments. But as with any organization, any change in membership affects internal legislative dynamics. Sen. Mark Hass, D-Beaverton, is remaining in the Legislature while also going for secretary of state. Meanwhile, observers wonder whether 2020 will be the last reign for Senate Pres- ident Peter Courtney, D-Salem. The lon- gest-serving president in Oregon history, Courtney is a moderate. But after the lib- eral wing gained strength in the 2018 elec- tions, he was forced to move left. If voters elect more liberal Democrats to the Sen- ate in November, they will want one of their own as Senate president. As a staunch Democrat, Courtney is unlikely to try to maintain his presidency through a coalition with Republicans, although they work well together. On the other side of the Capitol, the House has new Republican leader- ship, which will affect dynamics there. Will Republican Leader Christine Dra- zan, R-Canby, and her team respond more aggressively to the Democratic supermajority? 3. The nuts and bolts: What budget surprises lie ahead? A major reason that Oregon shifted to annual legislative sessions was to deal with any problems in the state’s budget, which covers two-year periods. During Legislative Days, legislators will hear a number of budget updates and spending requests. It seems that lawmakers — of either party — never lack for ideas on how to spend money. State economists will issue their quar- terly economic and revenue forecasts on Feb. 12, estimating how much more money — or less — the Legislature can spend during 2019-21 than previously planned. 4. The wild cards: What else could derail the session? There remains a solid probability of a Senate Republican walkout over a climate change bill. Usually, something else comes along to cause a blowup. A proposed firearms stor- age bill is a candidate. Opponents of child- hood vaccination mandates are getting ready in case that legislation comes around again. And there are a whole bunch of seem- ingly innocuous bills — from septic tanks to hunting licenses — that could morph into contentious issues. dick Hughes has been covering the Ore- gon political scene since 1976.
