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About The daily Astorian. (Astoria, Or.) 1961-current | View Entire Issue (Dec. 14, 2019)
A3 THE ASTORIAN • SATuRdAy, dEcEmbER 14, 2019 Rural support for Trump remains steady How voters feel about President Trump By CAROL RYAN DUMAS capital Press BUHL, Idaho — Three years ago, dairy farmer John Brubaker saw presidential candidate Donald Trump as the lesser of two evils. Back then, Trump wouldn’t have been his first pick — but there was no way he’d vote for Hillary Clin- ton, the former U.S. senator and secretary of state under President Barack Obama. Fast forward to a cold, windy day checking cows on his dairy, and it’s a different story — Trump is now his top choice. “He has done a lot for rural America, and he has done a lot for the nation, in my opinion,” he said. Brubaker, 65, is one of Trump’s many rural back- ers, a segment that helped push the New York real estate mogul and reality TV show boss over the top in the 2016 election. A recent poll by Grinnell College in Iowa shows that Trump’s approval rating among rural voters ranges from 56% to 63% on issues such as his perfor- mance as president, the econ- omy and on immigration. Voters’ one caveat is the trade war with China, which has cost U.S. farmers bil- lions of dollars in an already severe agriculture economic recession. Even so, the poll showed a 49% approval rat- ing on China. Frustration over China and how long the trade dis- pute will linger has some questioning whether rural support for Trump will hold. “There’s some real frus- tration and trepidation out there,” Brubaker said. But any businessman in agriculture knows some- thing had to be done, and Trump’s hard line on China hasn’t altered Brubaker’s support, he said. “... It should have been done 20 to 30 years ago. He’s the only one with a backbone to do it,” he said. That’s a rare quality in a U.S. president and a big rea- son Trump has his support, he said. “You might not like what he says, but you know where he stands. He’s not going to be bought off,” he said. Another aspect he likes about Trump is that he’s not a politician, he’s a businessman. Trump has rolled back regulations, including Waters of the U.S., he said. Many in agriculture saw Waters of the U.S. as an attempt by the federal government to con- trol nearly all surface water. “What he understands is how regulation is a job- killer, and he’s all about American jobs,” he said. He also appreciates Trump’s tough stance on immigration. It’s a two- edged sword because farm- ers need an immigrant work force, but it has to be done the right way, he said. “We can’t just have peo- ple walk in here freely by the hundreds of thousands,” he said. That’s not to say Bru- baker agrees with every decision Trump has made. He doesn’t think standing up to China alone or pulling the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership were the way to go. This portion of The Grinnell College National Poll illustrates how urban/ rural Americans likely to vote view Donald Trump: Response (by percent) Category City Suburb Town Rural Total Definitely vote to re-elect Trump 31% 32 38 54 38 Consider someone else 12 14 18 10 13 Definitely vote to elect someone else 53 51 42 35 47 Not sure 3 2 2 1 2 Trump approval rate ... Response (by percent) City Suburb Town Rural Total 34% 36 45 56 40 ... As president ... On the economy 45 48 54 63 50 ... On immigration 34 33 45 56 40 ... On trade with China 35 31 42 49 38 NOTE: Based on telephone interviews with 1,003 U.S. adults ages 18 or older, including 806 likely voters in the 2020 general election. Responses were adjusted by sex, age, and race to reflect the general population. Margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Source: Grinnell College; Selzer & Company, Oct. 17-23, 2019 Nati Harnik/AP Photo Capital Press graphic Corn grows in front of a barn carrying a large ‘Trump’ sign in rural Nebraska in 2018. The U.S. should have got- ten a coalition of countries, and definitely the European Union, involved in standing up to China, he said. As for the partnership, Trump wanted bilateral agreements instead, and he has procured an agri- culture-focused agreement with Japan that mirrors the agreement. But pulling out of it opened the doors to U.S. competitors in the other 11 markets, he said. On the whole, Brubaker believes Trump has the farm- er’s back, he said. He’s done more for farm- ers, and the nation, than any president since Ronald Rea- gan, he said. Strong support There’s more to the equa- tion than disruptions in trade, according to the Ameri- can Farm Bureau Federa- tion, which doesn’t endorse candidates. Despite the frustration over trade, the Trump admin- istration has brought about tax reform and rolled back regulations, Dale Moore, the federation’s executive vice president, said. One big regulatory roll- back was the EPA’s Waters of the U.S. rule, he said. Farm bureau members he and his colleagues have talked with “still believe the president is out there fighting for them,” he said. They also feel the admin- istration is listening. Whether it’s the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the Depart- ment of the Interior, they feel they’re being heard. They like how agencies are approaching things and want to keep that going, he said. They’re not always get- ting the answers they want, but folks are listening, he said. One example is the trade mitigation and market facil- itation programs, meant to compensate farmers and ranchers for lost income due to the trade dispute with China. It’s not going to make farmers whole, but it is appreciated, he said. Producers are “some- where between frustrated and angry at the situation,” but they also realize “China is a bad actor and it’s gone on a long time,” he said. Producers also felt the effects of pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and getting the agreement with Japan is an important step forward — as is resolv- ing the situation with China and getting the U.S.-Mexi- co-Canada Agreement rati- fied, he said. There has also been prog- ress on rural infrastruc- ture and broadband internet expansion as well as a focus on the opioid crisis and men- tal health in rural communi- ties, he said. The rural sentiment toward healthcare is really tough to get a handle on, he said. Everybody has an issue trying to sort that out, partic- ularly in rural areas, where so many people are self-em- ployed, he said. insurance “Affordable is going to be an ongoing issue,” he said. Immigration reform is also an issue, as is the need to reduce the number of waiv- ers under the Renewable Fuel Standard, he said. The administration exempted some small refineries from the biofuel mandate, upset- ting corn producers. While the farm economy is struggling, the economy in general has improved under the Trump administration — and that’s important to pro- ducers, he said. Please ADOPT A PET! Christmas Buffet: $35 adults • $17.50 Children 12 & under per plate TURKEY PRIME RIB SALMON CLATSOP COUNTY ANIMAL SHELTER • 861-PETS 1315 SE 19th St. • Warrenton | Tues-Sat 12-4pm www.dogsncats.org THIS SPACE SPONSORED BY BAY BREEZE BOARDING a sense that something will get done with China and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agree- ment, he said. There are lots of issues in rural areas, from access to health care to the quality of jobs and economic opportu- nity. Anecdotally, people are certainly struggling despite low unemployment rates, he said. “The rural economy hasn’t rebounded the way it has in other parts of the country. But I don’t know if people attribute that to the president,” he said. They do, however, attri- bute the refinery waiv- ers under the Renewable Fuels Standard to the Trump administration — again, a big deal for corn growers. But from things Trump has said, he realizes that was a mistake and will fix it, he said. Trump does a good job of speaking to voters and assur- ing them they just need to be patient, he said. “He’s good enough at messaging that people who support him in rural areas are not willing to turn their back on him,” he said. 1198 Commercial Street Astoria • 503.975.5305 1yr old male Pit Terrier See more on Signature Series carruthers proteins Petfinder.com % Steady backing Johnathan Hladik, pol- icy director at the Center for Rural Affairs, said rural sup- port for Trump appears to be steady. The center is an indepen- dent, nonpartisan organi- zation that advances policy to support small towns and family farmers. “Based on what we’re hearing, support proba- bly remains unchanged,” he said. He doesn’t think it’s as enthusiastic as portrayed by some media. But Trump vot- ers are still willing to see the best in him, and he doesn’t think they’ll turn on him. Trump has made some mistakes, and people see that. But he’s also done some good things, he said. “They feel that he’s at least trying to get things done, and that’s a contrast compared to Congress,” he said. The administration has just sent out the second installment of trade miti- gation aid, and that’s top of mind right now, he said. “I think this says to a lot of farmers this is an admin- istration that understands they’re in a rough spot. They see it as a recognition of the challenges on the farm and what they’ve been through,” he said. And they think someone’s in charge who is at least will- ing to improve trade. There’s FRANKLIN Something that bestows and receives: A little life at your feet. off 20 Select What farm bureau is hear- ing from its state affiliates is “folks still support the pres- ident.” As one member put it — when it comes to farm bureau gatherings in his area “you complain about the president at your own peril,” he said. People in rural commu- nities feel Trump under- stands their issues, whereas the other presidential candi- dates are still trying to make inroads in rural areas, he said. The rural vote was important in the last pres- idential election, and it’s going to be important in the 2020 elections, he said. 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