2A
THE DAILY ASTORIAN • TUESDAY, JUNE 6, 2017
Weather forecasts improve, under the radar
Major League Baseball, which
is now able to move game
times around based on fore-
casts so you have a much
smaller chance of getting
soaked in the stands.
Last week, the forecast for
Washington was afternoon
thunderstorms on Thursday
so the Washington Nationals
moved their game from 4:05
p.m. to 12:05 p.m. The game
got in — the Nats won — and
the storms arrived on schedule
not too long after the regularly
scheduled start time.
“That would have been
unheard of 20 years ago,” said
retired Washington television
meteorologist Bob Ryan, the
fi rst national on-air weather-
man on NBC’s “Today” show.
“If we did in the 1500s what
we do now, we would have
been burned at the stake as
witches and warlocks.”
Ryan used to get people
telling him he was never right,
so he would challenge them to
bets on how good his forecasts
were. He’d offer to donate $5
to someone’s favorite char-
ity for every blown forecast if
they’d donate just $1 for every
one he got right. No one took
him up on the offer.
High temps
right 80 percent
of the time
By SETH BORENSTEIN
Associated Press
WASHINGTON — Make
fun of the weatherman if
you want but modern fore-
casts have quietly, by degrees,
become much better.
Meteorologists are now as
good with their fi ve-day fore-
casts as they were with their
three-day forecasts in 2005.
Both government and pri-
vate weather forecasting com-
panies are approaching the
point where they get tomor-
row’s high temperature right
nearly 80 percent of the time.
It was 66 percent 11 years ago,
according to ForecastWatch , a
private fi rm that rates accuracy
of weather forecasts.
That may not always be
appreciated, especially if your
livelihood depends on get-
ting rain and snow amounts,
and timing, just right, all
the time. “They don’t know
what’s going to happen,” com-
plained Washington taxi driver
Antenhe Lashitew. He makes
more money when it rains or
snows, so he wants them to be
more precise.
He may yet be satisfi ed,
though, because forecasts are
continuing to improve. They
are already good enough for
More observations
Better forecasts are partly
the result of more observations
taken in the air and oceans
and better understanding of
how weather works. But it’s
mostly bigger and faster com-
AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta
Grounds crew puts sand on the field as mild rain dampens
the field at the end of the fourth inning of a baseball game
between the Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners in
Washington on May 23. The forecast for Washington was
afternoon thunderstorms so the Washington Nationals
moved their game from 4:05 p.m. to 12:05 p.m. The game
got in, the Nats won, and the storms arrived on schedule
not too long after the regularly scheduled start time.
puters that put it all together
in complex computer mod-
els that simulate the weather
that may be coming tomorrow,
next week and even later in the
month, meteorologists said.
The improvements are
most noticeable during Atlan-
tic hurricane season, which
starts Thursday.
Hurricane forecasts were
twice as good last year than
they were in 2005, when the
National Hurricane Cen-
ter predicted the paths of 28
storms, including Hurricane
Katrina. Then, predictions
where a storm would be 36
hours out were accurate within
WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY
65
55
50
ALMANAC
Mostly cloudy with a
couple of showers
Last
New
June 17
Salem
50/77
Newport
49/62
Coos Bay
48/66
First
June 23
June 30
John Day
54/91
La Grande
51/90
Baker
44/90
Ontario
55/95
Bend
50/84
Burns
46/87
Roseburg
52/81
Medford
58/85
Klamath Falls
46/79
Source: Jim Todd, OMSI
TOMORROW'S TIDES
Astoria / Port Docks
Time
7:14 a.m.
6:57 p.m.
Low
-0.3 ft.
2.3 ft.
REGIONAL CITIES
City
Baker City
Bend
Brookings
Eugene
Ilwaco
Klamath Falls
Medford
Newberg
Newport
North Bend
Hi
82
83
61
78
62
84
90
82
59
63
Today
Lo
44
50
50
48
51
46
58
51
49
50
W
s
s
s
s
pc
s
s
pc
s
s
Hi
90
84
61
75
61
79
85
77
62
66
Wed.
Lo
51
56
53
56
54
51
59
56
54
56
W
s
pc
r
pc
pc
pc
pc
pc
pc
r
City
Olympia
Pendleton
Portland
Roseburg
Salem
Seaside
Spokane
Springfi eld
Vancouver
Yakima
Hi
83
84
85
82
81
64
81
80
85
88
Today
Lo
50
55
56
52
50
50
58
49
53
57
W
pc
pc
pc
s
s
pc
pc
s
pc
pc
Hi
77
89
80
81
77
64
90
77
78
92
Wed.
Lo
54
60
59
59
56
55
63
57
59
63
W
pc
s
pc
pc
pc
pc
pc
pc
pc
pc
TOMORROW'S NATIONAL WEATHER
NATIONAL CITIES
W
sh
r
s
t
s
pc
t
pc
pc
s
s
s
pc
pc
t
pc
t
sh
s
c
s
s
pc
pc
pc
Wed.
Hi Lo
79 63
63 54
75 52
78 54
83 60
71 53
95 72
77 58
86 74
70 52
80 57
104 77
75 59
82 59
84 77
79 57
86 69
64 54
82 57
65 54
82 59
97 69
69 57
77 57
69 57
Shown are noon positions of weather systems and precipitation. Temperature bands are highs for the day.
W
pc
c
s
t
s
c
c
pc
pc
c
s
pc
pc
s
t
pc
pc
sh
s
sh
s
s
pc
pc
sh
OBITUARIES
Mary Rose Wiese
Gearhart
May 12, 1924 — May 23, 2017
0.17 percent and an 11-year-
old child was also traveling in
the car.
• At 5:54 p.m. Saturday, Jef-
frey Bray, 63, of Seattle, was
arrested by the Seaside Police
Department on Second Avenue
near North Prom for DUII . The
person reporting the incident
allegedly saw him drinking
beer and blocking a fi re hydrant
before driving away. He was
later examined by a drug recog-
nition expert and allegedly had
beer and marijuana in the car.
• At 1:20 a.m. Sunday, Whit-
APPLIANCE
AND HOME
FURNISHINGS
529 SE MARLIN, WARRENTON
503-861-0929
O VER
Mattresses, Furniture
3 A 0
RS
& More!
HOURS OPEN: MON-FRI 8-6 • SATURDAY 9-5 • SUNDAY 10-4
We Service What We Sell
ney Justine Westerholm, 19, of
Gearhart, was arrested by the
Warrenton Police Department
on Northwest Warrenton Drive
near Northwest 17th Place for
DUII . Her blood alcohol con-
tent was 0.17 percent.
Assault
• At 5:32 p.m. Saturday,
Deganawidah Goemen, 39, of
Portland, was arrested by the
Astoria Police Department on
16th Street near Duane Street
for fourth-degree assault. He
allegedly struck a man in the
face.
LOTTERIES
ria. Hughes-Ransom Mortu-
ary & Crematory in Astoria is
in charge of the arrangements.
SECRIST, Barbara Ann,
74, of Warrenton, died in
Warrenton.
Hughes-Ran-
som Mortuary & Crematory
in Astoria is in charge of the
arrangements.
PUBLIC MEETINGS
PACKAGE DEALS
TSOP
C LA U
Y
C O NT
DUII
• At 12:20 a.m. Saturday,
Jeffrey Dale Wells, 54, of
Newberg, was arrested by the
Seaside Police Department for
driving under the infl uence of
intoxicants. He was examined
by a drug recognition expert.
• At 9:04 p.m. Saturday,
Eric Thor Nyman, 53, of Asto-
ria, was arrested by the Asto-
ria Police Department on Third
Street near Lexington Ave-
nue for DUII and recklessly
endangering another person.
His blood alcohol content was
June 5, 2017
WEBB, Joanne R., 85, of
Astoria, died in Astoria. Cald-
well’s Luce-Layton Mortuary
of Astoria is in charge of the
arrangements.
June 3, 2017
LOGAN, Althea Merle,
103, of Astoria, died in Asto-
APPLIANCE
YE
Mary passed away peacefully in her sleep gon. After purchasing Bud’s Drive In and Motel
Tuesday morning, May 23, 2017.
and selling it in 1973, Mary worked part time
She was born May 12, 1924, in Portland in real estate with Tarbell in Seaside. In 1985,
to Anton and Nina Konzich. She was raised along with her son, Douglas, they opened
Dooger’s Seafood and
in Jewell, and attended
Grill.
Jewell Grade and High
Mary retired again in
schools, where she was a
1994. Finally having the
scrappy basketball player.
time to pursue one of her
Moving to Portland
true passions, Mary took
after graduating from
her contract bridge play-
high school, Mary went
ing skills to multiple mas-
to work at the J.C. Penney
ters levels.
Co. , quickly moving up to
Mary was preceded
lower management with
in death by her husband,
her keen business mind.
Mary Wiese
Larry; her son, Edward;
She met Larry Wiese at
and four step-siblings,
a dance, where Larry was
drumming in the orchestra. They were married Ann, Francis, Eva and Tony. She is survived by
on Sept. 28, 1946. Both Larry and Mary worked her son, Douglas; her favorite daughter-in-law,
at the American Lumber Co. in Vernonia until Mary Jean; two grandchildren, Carnegie and
1950, when they moved to Molalla, Oregon. Elie; a sister, Patricia Hanthorn; and a brother,
Mary then became a housewife, looking after Henry Konzich.
Caldwell Luce-Layton is handling the cre-
her two children, Edward and Douglas.
In 1963, the family moved to Gearhart, Ore- mation, and there will not be a public service.
DEATHS
Weather (W): s-sunny, pc-partly cloudy, c-cloudy,
sh-showers, t-thunderstorms, r-rain, sf-snow fl urries,
sn-snow, i-ice.
IN
• Last year, the National
Weather Service fi ve-day fore-
casts were within 4 degrees of
the high temperature. That’s as
accurate as 2005’s three-day
forecasts and a full degree bet-
ter than the 5-day forecasts of
11 years ago.
• Forecasters can predict
winter storms 22 hours ahead
of time, up from 17 hours in
2005.
• Forecasters have pre-
dicted
some
dangerous
extreme events coming about
a week ahead of time, includ-
ing Superstorm Sandy in 2012,
20 inches of rain in South Car-
olina in 2015 and a 2016 East
Coast blizzard, in ways they
could never have done before.
When it comes to pars-
ing where it’s going to snow
instead of just rain or sleet,
things get trickier. And when
that line between snow and rain
moves by only a couple dozen
miles it can make a huge dif-
ference. This came up after last
winter’s blizzard when New
York and New Jersey offi cials
blasted the weather service for
not dialing back on forecasts of
a giant snowfall that ended up
hitting further west. Problems
with that forecast were com-
pounded by the way the storm’s
uncertainties were communi-
cated to the public — or in this
case not — meteorologists said.
Meteorologists
mostly
credit complex high-resolu-
tion computer models that
take in giant amounts of real-
world data from satellites and
elsewhere and use physics for-
mulas to crunch out countless
simulations of what’s going
to happen next. As those are
compared, cross-referenced
and run again a clearer picture
of future weather emerges.
ON THE RECORD
Lakeview
44/82
Ashland
54/82
Forecasts and graphics provided by AccuWeather, Inc. ©2017
Tonight's Sky: Emerging in the eastern night sky are
the three stars of the Summer Triangle: Vega of Lyra,
Deneb of Cygnus and Altair of Aquila.
Today
Hi Lo
78 66
51 48
74 54
75 53
84 57
70 53
99 71
75 54
87 74
77 54
82 56
105 78
76 60
86 64
89 77
83 59
81 72
59 53
90 61
66 55
83 59
94 67
66 53
83 55
79 60
Prineville
49/88
Lebanon
50/78
Brookings
49/63
UNDER THE SKY
High
8.8 ft.
7.1 ft.
Pendleton
55/89
The Dalles
60/90
Portland
56/80
Eugene
48/75
Sunset tonight ........................... 9:04 p.m.
Sunrise Wednesday .................... 5:25 a.m.
Moonrise today .......................... 6:21 p.m.
Moonset today ............................ 4:14 a.m.
City
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Denver
Des Moines
Detroit
El Paso
Fairbanks
Honolulu
Indianapolis
Kansas City
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Memphis
Miami
Nashville
New Orleans
New York
Oklahoma City
Philadelphia
St. Louis
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Seattle
Washington, DC
58
50
Mostly cloudy with a
couple of showers
Periods of rain
Tillamook
47/66
SUN AND MOON
Time
12:21 a.m.
1:28 p.m.
57
48
Shown is tomorrow's weather. Temperatures are tonight's lows and tomorrow's highs.
ASTORIA
50/65
Precipitation
Monday ............................................ 0.00"
Month to date ................................... 0.18"
Normal month to date ....................... 0.51"
Year to date .................................... 47.31"
Normal year to date ........................ 33.87"
June 9
SATURDAY
REGIONAL WEATHER
Astoria through Monday.
Temperatures
High/low ....................................... 66°/41°
Normal high/low ........................... 63°/49°
Record high ............................ 88° in 1898
Record low ............................. 40° in 1988
Full
60
48
Some sun, then
increasing clouds
Partly cloudy
FRIDAY
Other improvements
97 miles. Last year, they were
about that accurate 72 hours
before a storm hit.
In the 25 years since Hur-
ricane Andrew “we’ve gained
two days of predictability for
track forecast,” center forecast
operations chief James Frank-
lin said.
And while coastal residents
FIVE-DAY FORECAST FOR ASTORIA
TONIGHT
may want the hurricane cen-
ter’s so-called cone of uncer-
tainty to shrink even more, for-
mer hurricane center director
Rick Knabb said it’s gotten so
small it’s a problem the other
way. People look at just the
forecast track of the eye of the
storm and they trust it. But then
they don’t heed warnings about
how dangerous conditions can
extend for more than 100 miles
beyond that line on the screen
and they get in trouble, said
Knabb, now an on-air analyst
at The Weather Channel.
TUESDAY
Seaside Library Board, 4:30
p.m., 1131 Broadway.
Port of Astoria Commission,
5 p.m., Port offi ces, 10 Pier 1
Suite 209.
Miles Crossing Sanitary Sewer
District Board, 6 p.m., 34583
U.S. Highway 101 Business.
Seaside Planning Commis-
sion, 6 p.m., City Hall, 989
Broadway.
Cannon Beach City Council, 7
p.m., City Hall, 163 E. Gower St.
WEDNESDAY
Port of Astoria Budget Com-
mittee, noon, Port offi ces, 10
Pier 1 Suite 209.
Seaside Improvement Com-
mission, 6:30 p.m., City Hall,
989 Broadway.
Gearhart City Council, 7 p.m.,
City Hall, 698 Pacifi c Way.
The Daily Astorian
Established July 1, 1873
(USPS 035-000)
Published daily, except Saturday and Sunday, by EO Media Group,
949 Exchange St., PO Box 210, Astoria, OR 97103 Telephone 503-
325-3211, 800-781-3211 or Fax 503-325-6573. POSTMASTER:
Send address changes to The Daily Astorian, PO Box 210, Astoria,
OR 97103-0210
www.dailyastorian.com
MEMBER OF THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Associated Press is entitled exclusively to the use for
republication of all the local news printed in this newspaper.
SUBSCRIBER TO THE NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE
MEMBER CERTIFIED AUDIT OF CIRCULATIONS, INC.
OREGON
Monday’s Pick 4:
1 p.m.: 7-7-3-0
4 p.m.: 5-5-8-7
7 p.m.: 1-0-3-3
10 p.m.: 7-8-8-7
Monday’s Megabucks: 13-
18-23-27-28-46
Estimated jackpot: $6.9
million
WASHINGTON
Monday’s Daily Game:
0-6-6
Monday’s Hit 5: 09-13-17-
21-35
Estimated jackpot: $170,000
Monday’s Keno: 01-04-07-
20-24-27-29-33-36-42-44-
49-51-54-61-63-64-65-66-79
Monday’s Lotto: 03-14-22-
27-45-49
Estimated jackpot: $7.8
million
Monday’s Match 4: 04-11-
19-23
SUBSCRIPTION RATES
Effective July 1, 2015
HOME DELIVERY
MAIL
EZpay (per month) ................$11.25
EZpay (per month) ............... $16.60
13 weeks in advance ........... $36.79
13 weeks in advance ........... $51.98
26 weeks in advance ........... $70.82
26 weeks in advance ......... $102.63
52 weeks in advance ......... $135.05
52 weeks in advance ......... $199.90
Circulation phone number: 503-325-3211
Periodicals postage paid at Astoria, OR
ADVERTISING OWNERSHIP
All advertising copy and illustrations prepared by The Daily Astorian become
the property of The Daily Astorian and may not be reproduced for any use
without explicit prior approval.
COPYRIGHT ©
Entire contents © Copyright, 2017 by The Daily Astorian.
Printed on recycled paper