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OPINION 4A THE DAILY ASTORIAN • MONDAY, MAY 18, 2015 Fraternity of failure Founded in 1873 STEPHEN A. FORRESTER, Editor & Publisher LAURA SELLERS, Managing Editor BETTY SMITH, Advertising Manager CARL EARL, Systems Manager JOHN D. BRUIJN, Production Manager DEBRA BLOOM, Business Manager HEATHER RAMSDELL, Circulation Manager How much REALLY for Capitol renewal O A monument to Oregon or to Sen. Peter Courtney? regon’s Capitol is iconic — unique among state capitols for its 1930s look and its rotunda murals that project the quasi-so- cialist neo-realism of that Depression era. It is a good bet that relatively small percentage of Oregonians have been inside the building. But to the Legislature it is home. And to Senate President Peter Courtney it’s been home for 34 years. Nigel Jaquiss of Willamette Week has delivered an alarming investigation of Courtney’s plan to “renovate” the Capitol. The most salient aspect of Jaquiss’ report is that Courtney has kept secret from his colleagues the true cost of the project. That would be $337 mil- lion. “Courtney wants the state to bor- row $161 million this year to begin the project,” wrote Jaquiss. “That puts pressure on the state’s bond- ing capacity and could squeeze out money for seismic upgrades for other public buildings such as courthouses and hospitals.” State Sen. Betsy Johnson doesn’t like it that she would tell her constituents there is no mon- ey for seismic upgrades of their schools while Courtney’s plan would suck up the state’s ability to fund such projects. Any building of the Oregon A Capitol’s vintage undoubtedly needs an upgrade of some of its in- frastructure — such as plumbing, electrical or heating. But as Jaquiss notes, this is much more than a re- model. Courtney’s plans include a 3,000-square-foot legislative lounge, a 4,700-square-foot cafe and a 2,500-square-foot lounge for lobbyists. Compared to what? That is the appropriations choice that legisla- tors make every day. Unless we’re missing something, Courtney’s plan is extravagant when placed next to other public works needs around Oregon. When challenged about his Capitol plan, Jaquiss reported, Courtney regarded such questions as “an assault” on him. That comment betrays what’s going on here. Courtney has spent an overly long time in the Legislature. He is a creature of the Legislature, for good or for ill. All politicians nurture myths about themselves (John Kitzhaber had one) and Courtney is confusing his personal pride and meaning with the building he works in. Oil shipments no mere ‘uptick’ press release announc- ing Washington’s and Oregon’s plans to update their responses to oil spills on the lower Columbia River describes increasing rail ship- ments of crude oil in the area as an “uptick.” In fact, the volume of oil shipments by rail across both states has enormously expand- ed in recent years, going from essentially nothing at the start of this decade to tens of mil- lions of gallons a year now. Even under the most optimistic of assumptions, derailments and spills are certain to occur. The U.S. rail industry has a good safety record, but there have been enough disasters that its record isn’t anywhere close to perfect. With proposals for new and expanded export terminals and refineries, there also are nearly certain to be ships carrying pe- troleum products up and down the Columbia, along with more oil flowing in pipelines. These, too, are subject to spills. From being mostly just a recipient of fossil fuels, our two states will increasingly be integral parts of a national and international transportation and refining network. This is no mere “uptick,” but poten- tially a multidecade increase in risk that policymakers must do their best to confront. As al- ways in such matters, preven- tion must be the first priority, accompanied by making cer- tain those who profit are ap- propriately insured and bond- ed to pay for the damage done by spills. The particular aspect of planning that is being updat- ed is precisely how to respond in the immediate aftermath of spills, to contain damage and clean them up. The ex- isting plan was completed in 2003, long before the cur- rent crude-oil boom. Part of it is now more than 20 years old. Besides an intensely in- creased scale of risk, much has changed in these years. The old plan, ways to comment, and a link to a similar draft updated plan for the Chehalis River are all accessible at tinyurl.com/ NewOilSpillPlan The revised plan will pay special attention to sever- al wildlife refuges along the lower river, places where oil could be especially disastrous. It would make sense to include Willapa Bay in these plans, considering the hydrology of the Columbia River plume, which carries fish, nutrients and other things into the bay from the Columbia, at least during some months when the current flows northward. Comments are due to June 30. This is an important matter that warrants careful attention by citizens who care about lo- cal riverine and maritime re- sources. released a list of his chief ad- visers on for- policy, eb Bush wants to stop talking eign and it was a about past controversies. who’s-who of And you can see why. He has a lot mistake-mak- to stop talking about. ers, people who But let’s not honor his wish. You played essential can learn a lot by studying recent roles in the Iraq history, and you can learn even more disaster and Paul by watching how politicians respond other debacles. Krugman to that history. S e r i o u s l y, The big “Let’s move on” story of consider that list, which includes the past few days involved Bush’s such luminaries as Paul Wolfow- response when asked in an interview itz, who insisted that we would be whether, knowing what he knows welcomed as liberators and that the now, he would have supported the war would cost almost nothing, and 2003 invasion of Iraq. He answered Michael Chertoff, who as director of that yes, he would. No WMD? No the Department of Homeland Secu- stability after all the lives and money rity during Hurricane Katrina was expended? No problem. unaware of the thousands of people Then he tried to walk it back. He stranded at the New Orleans conven- “interpreted the question wrong,” tion center without food and water. and isn’t interested in engaging “hy- In Bushworld, in other words, potheticals.” Anyway, “going back playing a central role in catastrophic in time” is a “disservice” to those policy failure doesn’t disqualify you who served in the war. IURPIXWXUHLQÀXHQFH,IDQ\WKLQJD Take a moment to savor the cow- record of being disastrously wrong ardice and vileness of that last re- on national security issues seems to mark. And, no, that’s not hyperbole. be a required credential. Bush is trying to Voters, even Re- hide behind the publican primary In troops, pretending voters, may not share that any criticism that view, and the past Bushworld of political leaders few days have proba- — especially, of bly taken a toll on … being course, his broth- Bush’s presidential er, the command- disastrously prospects. In a way, er in chief — is however, that’s un- wrong on an attack on the fair. Iraq is a special courage and pa- problem for the Bush national triotism of those family, which has a who paid the price history both of never security for their superiors’ admitting mistakes mistakes. That’s and of sticking with issues sinking very low, loyal family retainers and it tells us a seems to be no matter how bad- lot more about ly they perform. But a required the candidate’s refusal to learn from character than any experience, combined credential. number of up- with a version of po- close-and-person- litical correctness in al interviews. which you’re only Wait, there’s more: Incredi- acceptable if you have been wrong bly, Bush resorted to the old pas- about crucial issues, is pervasive in sive-voice dodge, admitting only that the modern Republican Party. “mistakes were made.” Indeed. By Take my usual focus, econom- whom? Well, earlier this year Bush ic policy. If you look at the list of By PAUL KRUGMAN New York Times News Service J economists who appear to have significant influence on Republi- can leaders, including the likely presidential candidates, you find that nearly all of them agreed, back during the “Bush boom,” that there was no housing bubble and the American economic future was bright; that nearly all of them pre- dicted that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight the economic crisis that developed when that nonexis- tent bubble popped would lead to severe inflation; and that nearly all of them predicted that Obamacare, which went fully into effect in 2014, would be a huge job-killer. Given how badly these predic- tions turned out — we had the big- gest housing bust in history, infla- tion paranoia has been wrong for six years and counting, and 2014 delivered the best job growth since 1999 — you might think that there would be some room in the GOP for economists who didn’t get ev- erything wrong. But there isn’t. Having been completely wrong about the economy, like having been completely wrong about Iraq, seems to be a required credential. What’s going on here? My best explanation is that we’re witness- ing the effects of extreme tribalism. On the modern right, everything is a political litmus test. Anyone who tried to think through the pros and cons of the Iraq War was, by definition, an enemy of President George W. Bush and probably hated America; anyone who ques- tioned whether the Federal Reserve was really debasing the currency was surely an enemy of capitalism and freedom. It doesn’t matter that the skeptics have been proved right. Simply rais- ing questions about the orthodoxies of the moment leads to excommu- nication, from which there is no coming back. So the only “experts” left standing are those who made all the approved mistakes. It’s kind of a fraternity of failure: men and wom- en united by a shared history of get- ting everything wrong, and refusing to admit it. Will they get the chance to add more chapters to their reign of error? Republicans must step up on trad Obama wants a deal. But he has utterly failed to bring his party ASHINGTON — That along. It’s not free trade is advantageous just because for six years he’s to both sides is the rarest of po- treated all of litical propositions — provable, Congress with disdain and indeed mathematically. Charles prefers insult to David Ricardo did so in 1817. Krauthammer argument when The Law of Comparative Advantage confronted with has held up nicely for 198 years. opposition, this Nor is this abstract theory. We’ve time from Democrats like Elizabeth lived it. The free-trade regime cre- Warren. It’s also because he’s ex- ated after World War II precipitat- pended practically no political cap- ed the most astonishing advance of ital on the issue. He says it’s a top global welfare and prosperity the priority. Has he given even a single world has ever seen. And that re- televised address? gime was created, overseen, guar- The trade deal itself will likely anteed and presided over by the pass the Senate eventually, there United States. being eight or so Democrats (out of That era might be coming to a 46) who support the deal but want- close, however, as Democratic con- ed to extract certain guarantees be- gressional opposition to free trade fore fast-tracking it. (They got the continues to grow. On Tuesday, guarantees and on Thursday ap- every Democrat in the Senate (but proved fast track.) The problem is one) voted to block trade promotion the House. Very few House Demo- — aka fast-track — authority for crats will vote yes. House passage President Obama, which would have will require Republican near-una- given him the power to nimity. And it’s not conclude the Trans-Pa- there. The TPP FL¿F 3DUWQHUVKLS One group of GOP (TPP), a trade deal be- opponents are tradi- would ing hammered out with tional protectionists 11 other countries, in- anchor our of the Pat Buchanan cluding such key allies paleoconservative as Japan, Australia and school of autarky. relations Singapore. The others are con- with Fast-track author- VHUYDWLYHV VR UHÀH[ ity allows an admin- ively anti-Obama that Pacifi c istration to negotiate they oppose anything the details of a trade he proposes, espe- Rim agreement and then cially anything that come to Congress for appears to give him nations. a nonamendable up-or- more authority. down vote. In various Having strong- forms, that has been granted to every ly opposed Obama’s constitutional president since Franklin Roosevelt. usurpations on immigration, health For good reason. If the complex, de- care, criminal justice and environ- tailed horse trading that is required mental regulation, I’m deeply sym- to nail down an agreement is carried pathetic to that concern. But in this out in the open — especially with case, there is no usurpation. There is multiple parties — the deal never no congressional forfeiture of power. gets done. Fast track has been the norm for 81 Like all modern presidents, \HDUV$QGWKH¿QDOVD\RQDQ\WUDGH By CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER Washington Post Writers Group W agreement rests entirely with Con- gress. As for the merits, the TPP is a boon for America. It reduces tariff barriers to vast Asian markets and strengthens protection for intellec- tual property, America’s forte. To be sure, any trade deal, while a net plus overall, produces winners and losers. But the TPP will be accompanied by so-called Trade Adjustment Assis- tance, training and subsidies to help those negatively affected. Moreover, the overall gain is more than just economic. In our deadly serious competition with &KLQD IRU LQÀXHQFH LQ WKH UHJLRQ the TPP would anchor our relations ZLWK3DFL¿F5LPQDWLRQV,IZHZDON away, they will inevitably gravitate to China’s orbit. The question is (as Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz succinctly put it in The Wall Street Journal): Who is going to write the rules for the global economy — America or China? $QG RQH ¿QDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQ Watching America’s six-year retreat under Obama, the world wonders whether this is the product of one idiosyncratic presidency or of an in- exorably declining America. Repub- licans have been telling the world that decline is not a condition but a choice, and that America’s standing will be restored when U.S. policy is entrusted to geopolitically serious people. Here is the GOP’s chance to show seriousness. The Democrats, inventors of the postwar free-trade regime, have now turned against it (and their own president). This is the Republicans’ chance to demonstrate that they can think large by advancing an import- ant strategic objective — giving sub- stance to Obama’s as yet stillborn “pivot to Asia.” I wouldn’t mind seeing Obama sunk by his own arrogance in intra- party fratricide over trade. But the issue is bigger than Obama. In 20 months, he will be gone. Asia will not. And it will get away from us if Republicans don’t step up and step in where Obama and the Democrats have failed. Where to write • U.S. Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D): 2338 Rayburn HOB, Washington, D.C., 20515. Phone: 202- 225-0855. )D[ 'LVWULFW RI¿FH 12725 SW Millikan Way, Suite 220, Beaverton, OR 97005. Phone: 503- 326-2901. Fax 503-326-5066. Web: bonamici.house. gov/ • U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D): 313 +DUW6HQDWH2I¿FH%XLOGLQJ:DVKLQJ ton, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202-224-3753. Web: www.merkley.senate.gov • State Rep. Brad Witt (D): State Capitol, 900 Court Street N.E., H-373, Salem, OR 97301. Phone: 503-986- 1431. Web: www.leg.state.or.us/witt/ Email: rep.bradwitt@state.or.us • State Rep. Deborah Boone (D): 900 Court St. N.E., H-481, Salem, OR 97301. Phone: 503-986-1432. Email: rep.deborah boone@state.or.us District RI¿FH 32 %R[ &DQQRQ %HDFK OR 97110. Phone: 503-986-1432. Web: www.leg.state.or.us/ boone/