The Oregon state employee., October 01, 1949, Page 9, Image 9

7
us with the professional and technical
class es Vas f about the only m ajor cate­
gories : with- a shortage of applicants.
And that shortage will probably al-
ways exist.
The -fiscal' year ended July 1, 1949
i w 7700 appointments and 6500 sep­
arations,, for a turn-over of 57*111 in­
cluding se>sp:n al, tem porary and emer­
gency employees/' Doubtless, wé’ll
never see another high turnover like
that in state employment in Oregon.
We’re now in a competitive situation
—where birth, death, retirem ent and
possibly m arriage will be the main
factors in the future rate of turnover.
It would be my opinion, too, that Ore­
gon’s record peak for ; state employ­
ment—12,155 as] of last June—will not
be exceeded for 'sëy^tâl years to come.
We are nOw staffed pretty well, and
it -seém’s' that more employees will not
be needed until, and unless, new de-
partm ents/are created, or new build­
ings -are erected at institutions. How­
ever, we can’t discount Oregon’s
steady population growth, nearly 60%/
b’.nce 1940, and that might necessitate
a gradual expansion of the I total of
state employees in keeping with thé
population-increase rate.
It I is/lnteresting to note that, pro­
portionately, the increase in the num ­
ber of state employees has ’ stayed
somewhat in ratio with Oregon’s pop­
ulation-increase, a 11 h o u g h lagging
slightly behind.
The Growing Problem of Age
I personally, am particularly inter­
ested in the fu tu ro ’of old and “nearly^
old” individuals, in relation to th e job
m arket—both public and private em­
ployment. I have some most interest­
ing figures on this subject from the
United States Bureau of Labor statis­
tics. I’ll highlight the report as briefly
as. possible. But I think you should
hear about it, because, you might w ant
Bo take it into formal consideration at
"his meeting.
I
A. Population Trends
1. Nationally
The rapid growth in the size of the
aged and p e a r ly - o ld ” population, evi­
denced by the- data in the following
table, is a by-product of bur develop­
ment a s a great industrial nation.
Nationally—U. S. Population
45 Years and Over
Pet. of Total
Year
No.
Population
17.8
13,480
1900
26.5
35,100
1940
39.7
64,840
2000
Year
1900
1940
2000
65 Years and Over
Pet. of Total
No.
Population
4.1
- 3,080
6.8
9,020
H l
21,510
Its causes are closely interwoven
with those which resulted in the rapid
technological progress of recent dec­
ades. and in our progressively higher
standard of living. It is’specifically ac­
counted for by the following factors.
1. Increase in life expectancy—Av­
erage life expectancy at birth for
white men rose from 48.2 years in
1900 to 65.1/ygars in 1946. (In 1900,
only 2 out of every 5 white males
bom alive/ could expect to live to
age 65; in 1946, this ratio had risen
to three out of five).
2. Decline in birth rate—At the same
time, there has been a long-term de-
clinefon the birth rate, so that young­
sters have constituted a smaller per­
centage of the population.
2. Pacific Coast—It is ? significant
that the proportion of aged (65 years
and over) is higher at present in the
West Coast] states than in the country
as a whole. Moreover, as the rate of
immigration slows down, this differ­
ence m ay increase as indicated by the
following table.
of population
1948
United States 7.5%
8.1
California
Oregon
10.3
8.0
Washington
65 yrs. & over
High
Low
1960
9.0
9.»
10.8
9.4
13.9
11.9
9.6
8.1
Political Implications—The increase
in the aged population has trem end­
ous political implications. Pressuré for
measures to assist the aged is already
strong and will inevitably increase.
Persons 50 years and over at present
constitute one-third of population of