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About Eugene weekly. (Eugene, Oregon) 1993-current | View Entire Issue (Feb. 20, 2014)
VIEWPOINT BY TOM GIE SEN Game Over? PETROLEUM FIELDS IN DECLINE, DESPITE FRACKING G REATER G H OODS 515 IGH st Mon-Sat. 10-6 g reater g oods o nline.com hurry for best selection ! storewide Fair Trade Closeout sale! T he International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook on Nov. 12, 2013. Annually each November, the agency provides a status report and offers its forecast of petroleum supplies over the next 20-25 years. The IEA forecast this year is pessimistic: Here is the chart of production from existing fi elds, in millions of barrels per day (mb/d): It is time to close 80 Greater Goods THANK YOU ALL for partaking in FAIR TRADE since 1991 . 70 We appreciate your support for small, locally owned shops: KEEP It LOCAL! 60 Choosing FAIR TRADE goods makes a world of difference! 50 40 30 20 EUGENE FAMILIES: 10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2035 Production that would be observed from currently producing fields in the absence of further investment (excludes natural gas liquids [NGL]). Note that production in 2035 is 61 mb/d less than that of 2012. That shortage equals roughly the production of six Saudi Arabias. Source: Figure 14.6 in IEA World Energy Outlook 2013. The chart illustrates that currently producing fi elds are in decline. The chart projects fl ow in 2020 from existing fi elds at 38 mb/day. Crude oil production has been about 74 mb/d. To avoid shortages of oil and gasoline we’ll need new production of 36 mb/d. Finding 36 mb/day appears to be impossible. The IEA has repeatedly admitted that conventional oil production (vertical wells on land or on continental shelf) is in decline. U.S. light tight oil (LTO), which is fracked in vertical/horizontal wells in shale formations, is predicted to reach 5 or 6 mb/day by 2020 and then decline. That leaves deep ocean drilling, bitumen (tar) sands and arctic wells (now apparently abandoned by Shell Oil Co.). All the additional investments are huge — a fracked well costs $6 million to $9 million today. The IEA fi nds a possible 10 million barrels a day in “new” crude oil: • Iraq 5 mb/d • Brazil 4 mb/d • Canada 2.4 mb/d • Kazakhstan 2 mb/d • U.S. 1.7 mb/d Total 15.1 mb/d Of those, Iraq is in midst of a new civil war, Brazil’s off-shore oil is in unworkable salt formations, Canada’s oil is expensive, destructive and extremely polluting, U.S. oil is shale oil (where the “sweet spots” are predicted to deplete by about 2020) and Kazakhstan is only 2 mb/day. But if they all come through, it is still only 15 mb/day. By 2020, existing world production totals only 38 mb/day. A very generous (probably unrealistically generous) estimate of new production from new investment is, say 20 mb/day. That is 58 mb/day total in 2020 — 16 mb/ day less than today’s total. That supply shortage would (more likely will) make our world unrecognizable. The U.S. currently burns 18.6 mb/day; the world uses 75 mb/day, and the U.S. currently produces much less than 10 mb/day. We are not even close to being energy independent. It appears impossible to offset the decline the IEA envisions: Oil supplies will likely diminish, prices will likely rise and extreme shortages may be the new normal. The Wall Street Journal reports today (1/30/14) that despite Chevron, Exxon and Shell having jointly spent over half a trillion dollars in the last fi ve years to produce more oil, their production of oil and gas is down. Every drop of oil we can get our hands on ought to be used to construct renewable energy. Now. School’s open! See what our schools offer. It’s school choice time. In Eugene School District 4J, every school offers an excellent education. You can enroll in your neighborhood school at any time. To request enrollment in a different school for 2014–15, apply online at www.4j.lane.edu/choice by February 28 at 5 p.m. Requests will be accepted in an order determined by lottery. School Choice Information Meeting Schools Open for Visits Monday, Feb. 24– Friday, Feb. 28 Each school offers activities and times when parents can visit. Please phone ahead or see www.4j.lane.edu/choice for details. Apply by Feb. 28 at 5 p.m. Thursday, Feb. 20, 7 p.m. 4J Education Center, 200 N. Monroe St. Learn about the school choice process. Eugene School District 4J www.4j.lane.edu/choice • 541-790-7570 Tom Giesen of Eugene is an adjunct research associate in the UO Public Planning, Policy and Manage- ment Department. eugeneweekly.com • February 20, 2014 7
