Image provided by: University of Oregon Libraries; Eugene, OR
About The North Coast times-eagle. (Wheeler, Oregon) 1971-2007 | View Entire Issue (March 1, 2002)
PAGE 13 NORTH COAST TIMES E A G L E , MARPRIL 2002 I calculated how long it would take everyone In the United States to get infected If the pattern kept up. I found that sometime in the year 1999 Everyone would have it. Now, that did not devastate me Because I understood That such was not the nature of the disease It did something to indicate The seriousness of the situation, though. That was some four, perhaps five years ago. A few months ago There was some renewed interest In the subject And the number of carrier cases To date was mentioned. I went back and checked my calculations. The number of carrier cases to date Exceeds the number indicated In those calculations. I fully expect the pattern will not continue. If it were to continue, The whole U.S. population would have it By 1995. We are assured this is unlikely, But I think there is a use For this type of thinking. PETIER BREUGEL, ‘THE FIGHT OF THE MONEYBAGS & STRONGBOXES' (1567) And where the population growth was slowing, But which have now been sliding Back into poverty, The population is beginning To grow more rapidly again. And in countries that have always been Poverty stricken, Population growth has never stopped Its dramatic increase. The suggestion is That for human populations in general In these times, The arrival at a certain Widespread level of well-being Is a mechanism that limits population. But, we haven’t. My concern is that we have missed, Or have by now All but missed A window of opportunity. It is my perception That for every dilemma We have backed into, Nature has reserved a solution for us And that Nature has also provided A leeway — a lag time, Giving us every opportunity To resolve the dilemma So that we may endure and prosper. It is also my perception That Nature will not suffer folly forever. Now I think of Africa, Probably the most ravaged And disrupted (not to say raped) continent On the face of the Earth Throughout history. The wealth of Africa has been bled Since early on To enrich other empires, Other nations, other continents. Its civilizations have been Repeatedly destroyed. For instance, Nature has many ways To limit populations And to keep them healthy. Usually these mechanisms Take the form of either Birth control or death control. Some bird populations, for example, When they get too crowded, Lay fewer eggs in the nest. It’s no decision on their part — It just happens — a mechanism trips in. (It is said that after World War II, or 1-B, whichever, There was an above-average increase In the ratio of boy to girl babies born, In favor of boys...) Other populations use a predator/ Prey relationship Sometimes vulnerabilities develop Because of degraded habitat. Sometimes the vulnerability is in the nerves — Stemming from too much close proximity. Sometimes, in highly successful Top of the heap predator populations — Those with nothing bigger to bring them down — Sometimes something much smaller enters them. I think of the African leopard Particularly in an area of the... Where was it. . . the Serengeti? No matter — What matters is that Over a vast area there nowadays Any one leopard can take a skin graft From any other leopard Without the slightest sign of rejection — Something not normally seen In a population of mammals. Genetically, they are all virtually identical. What happened was that some time ago A retrovirus swept the vast area Clear of leopards — All but perhaps one mating pair. The point is — Had our ability, Especially in the 20th century, To create wealth and well-being — Had this ability Taken the opportunities to do so In increasingly benign ways, And had that wealth been Shared equitably among us — Which, by the way, Increases our ability benignly To create more wealth and well-being — The human population Would have found a threshold, A holding capacity At which the Earth would have been able To sustain us well and indefinitely. But that didn’t happen We overran the mark Because of our history Of bad collective choices. And now, out of Africa, So we are told (I consider it yet unproven But it does have a certain Ironic value), Out of Africa Comes More than one retrovirus. Whether it is true or not, It certainly seems That Nature is saying “Time is up " That brings us to retroviruses, And the human population. Or for all we really know right now, We might substitute for the word ‘retroviruses’ The term ‘The thing or things That make for the suppression Of the immune system " But, as I was saying, That brings us to retroviruses, And for now we will stick to that term for it In the wealthier countries of the world Population growth is slowing dramatically In some there is already Negative growth, that is, reduction. In countries that were Arriving at prosperity, \ t When I was first listening to assessments Of the AIDS phenomenon, It occurred to me, Hearing the reports — So many cases in the U.S. three years ago, So many cases last year So many cases this year — It occurred to me that the number of cases Was roughly following a doubling pattern Year to year. So, in the way I have of worst-case situations To see how bad they might get So as not to be surprised, ♦ It provides a perspective With which to gauge the known And the unknown. . We don’t know enough about this disease To be complacent or confident About it. There is renewed argument Over the means by which it can Or cannot be transmitted, for one thing. For another, Viruses have extremely efficient methods By which they can transform Themselves and thereby more effectively Do what they do. They can be like keys which Change themselves to conform To the lock on the next door Through which they must pass. Can or will this virus do that? Who knows? Lastly — even if the whole population Being infected is extremely unlikely, as I believe it is, Surely the whole population will be affected. Where will it stop? 3 million? 6 million? 12, 24, 48 or 96 million? At what point does the difference between 24 or 48 or 96 and 250 million Begin to lose the distinction In the absolute horror of the reality? This speculation on the unknown Gives us a perspective on the known, For it helps us to realize The overwhelming negligence Of the official and public response thus far. This overwhelming negligence Seems to be deep-seated in the human psyche. It is as if the unreported injustices We have visited one another, One on one, group on group, Since time began Have never gone away, But have accumulated And now manifest themselves In our nuclear arsenals, In the rapidly degrading environment, And in the plague that is upon us. Day by day we measure Our overwhelming negligence On the composite yardstick Of rampant militarism Government deficits Private and public corruption Heroin and cocaine consumption Religious shamanism The parade of poverty and famine Apartheid Legless Central American children — The endless litany of our mea culpa woes. Perhaps the greatest woe of all Is that the word of hope has already been spoken. Nothing new needs to be found To turn us from death toward life. Life abundant is inherent in the biosphere, Or Creation, if you will. Life abundant for all humans is inherent In the better side of our history up until now, Especially in the better side Of the history of the 20th century, In our increasing ability to provide For our own well-being. We, as humans, Have only to choose it — One for all and all for one — And this we have not done We have not — Perhaps we will not — But I refuse to believe that we cannot. )
