The North Coast times-eagle., January 01, 2001, Page 12, Image 12

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THE FUTURE OF
BY HARRISON BROWN
Harrison Brown was professor of geochemistry at
the California Institute of Technology when he wrote the
following article for the January 1959 issue of H orizon ,
which develops a theme from his booK. 'The Challenge
of Man's Future'
Civilized man is coming to the point at which, for his
own survival, he will be dependent upon the smooth functioning
of his machines. Up to now in human history, this has not been
true Machines have been simply labor-saving devices, rather
pleasant luxuries, which enabled us to substitute the energy of
coal for the beast of burden or for human muscle. But the role of
machines is undergoing a transformation and we shall, in the not
too distant future, become their slaves. We must continue feed­
ing them; we must keep them operating;we must build new ones
at an accelerating pace. If for any reason they were collectively
to fail us. the kind of civilization we know wuld come to an end
and many of us would perish
Prophets of the future often assume that, even in the
event of such a catastrophe, a new industnal civilization would
some day rise from the ruins But this is probably a false
comfort. The fact is that we are rapidly approaching a point
where such a process of reconstruction would be difficult —
if not impossible
The reason, though seldom given much consideration in
discussions of man's future on this planet, is really quite simple.
Our present machine civilization was built by making use of the
mineral resources easily available on or near the earth's surface.
Within a period of time that is very short compared with the total
span of human history, supplies of fossil fuels will almost
certainly be exhausted This loss will make man completely
dependent upon water power, atomic energy, and solar energy
(including that made available by burning vegetation) for dnving
his machines. There are no fundamental physical laws that
prevent such a transition, and it is quite possible that society
will be able to make the change smoothly. But it is a transition
that will happen only once during the lifetime of the human
species
Once we have crossed the fateful divide, our technology
will permit us to continue for as long as industnal civilization
keeps functioning. But if for any reason disaster strikes and the
industrial network is destroyed, easily available mineral resour­
ces — the building blocks of the Industrial Revolution — will not
be there for man to use. Without them it seems doubtful that
we shall ever again be able to lift ourselves above the agrarian
level of existence. Thus man may well be approaching, in terms
of industrial civilization, a "point of no return."
Machine civilization as we know it is a manifestation of a
new stage of evolution of living matter on earth. Since the dawn
of life, the earth has been the abode of innumerable complex
interlocking networks of living things, each of which was molded
by the combination of the environment and the biological inno­
vations which had appeared up to that time.
Man is the most recent successful arrival on the
evolutionary scene. With the help of his machines, he has
achieved an unprecedented degree of dominance in the biolog­
ical environment But like the amphibians and the reptiles before
him, his continued prosperity is not assured by nature
Man emerged into the world a million or so years ago
and for a large part of that time he lived much like the other
animals about him But this new creature possessed a power
that was unique to the world scene — the power of conceptual
thought. This capability released him from the bondage of being
primarily dependent on instinct He could benefit from the
accumulated knowledge of his ancestors. He could transmit his
own store of knowledge in detail to his offspring
With the help of this power, man spread to all parts of
the earth where he could eke out an existence Eventually about
ten million human beings inhabited the earth, obtaining their
sustenance by hunting and fishing and by gathering varieties
of edible plants That was as far as man could go in terms of
numbers until his accumulated knowledge permitted him to
obtain more food than was provided by the earth in its natural
state The undeveloped land was then saturated with humanity
About 7,000 years ago, a dramatic invention appeared
that was destined greatly to enhance man's dominance Man
learned that he could cultivate edible plants, and this made it
possible for hundreds of humans to live on land that previously
supported only one or two It became possible for an individual
to produce more food than he needed for himself and his family,
and thus the way was paved for the emergence of towns and
civilizations. Human populations increased rapidly By A.D. 1650
there were perhaps fifty times as many human beings as had
existed in preagricultural days — about 500 million in all
Throughout the greater part of the agricultural revolution
work was done almost entirely by domesticated animals and by
human beings. However, large quantities of wood were consum­
ed for cooking, house-heating, brick-making, and metallurgical
purposes Indeed, the second dramatic "breakthrough" in man­
kind's history was brought about directly by the fact that the
forests in many parts of the world had been cut down
As the earth’s easily available resources are used up, our industrial
order is nearing a point of no return. Barring disaster, it can prosper
on little more than seawater and granite. But if it should be destroyed
in a world cataclysm, it might never rise again.
In England, coal came into widespread use as a sub­
stitute for wood But there was one important process in which
wood could not be replaced. Iron manufacture depended upon
charcoal, which was made from wood, and repeated attempts
to produce an equivalent of charcoal from coal met with failure.
Eventually, however, processes were discovered for converting
coal into coke, which was a satisfactory charcoal substitute,
and the iron industry was liberated from its dependence on
woodlands
The linking of coal to iron was one of the most fateful
achievements in mankind's history It precipitated a series of
rapid developments in the course of which a principle that we
now call "feedback" exerted profound effect.
As iron became more readily available it came to be
more widely used. The demand for coal increased rapidly, with
the result that the miners had to dig ever deeper underground
Ground water became a major problem in mining, and efforts
to cope wth it led to the development of a crude steam engine
that could drive a water pump that operated on coal. Further
development of this early engine led to its being used for other
purposes. It was soon applied in the textile industry, then for
transportation These developments in turn led to increased
demands for both iron and coal The demand for machines grew,
as did the demand for machines making machines.
From these early beginnings, industrial civilization
emerged in Western Europe Soon it spread to North America
Later it spread eastward to Russia and westward to Japan.
Today we see it spreading to China and India Barring an inter­
vening catastrophe, it seems inevitable that machine culture,
like agriculture, is destined one day to become worldwide
In the Western world, once machine culture became
deeply rooted, developments followed each other with incredible
rapidity.The combination of adequate nourishment and the rapid
expansion of medical research and public-health techniques
raised average life expectancy at birth from fifty years in 1900
to seventy years in 1950 Scientists, inventors, and engineers
designed an accelerated flow of new products, devised new
production techniques, and greatly increased output per man­
hour Working hours were reduced, and the flow of goods per
capita continued to increase rapidly It began to appear that the
combination of science, engineering, and industry might event­
ually transform the world into a paradise where everyone would
have enough to eat, where individuals might own practically all
of the material goods they might possibly desire.
However, just as the human body cannot survive on air
alone, an industrial machine must be provided with energy and
with raw materials if it is to survive Our industrial civilization
feeds on huge quantities or raw materials such as phosphate
rock, sulfur, water, and ores of iron, copper, and aluminum And
just as the human body requires energy in the form of food, so
our industrial network requires energy in the form of fuels such
as coal, natural gas, and petroleum
As per capita demand for goods continues to grow, as
population increases, and as industrialization spreads to other
regions of the world, the demand for raw materials wll surge up­
ward Each decade we must produce more materials than were
produced the decade before: we must produce more fertilizers,
insecticides, machines, and medicines. Correspondingly, we
must consume more ores, more coal, more petroleum.
But the ores that feed our machines are not renewable.
They are deposited by nature over periods of millions of years
and are not being replaced at any appreciable rate today. This
means that as time goes by, we will be forced to process ores of
steadily lowering grade, and we will be forced to dig ever deeper
into the earth. This process of depletion will continue until ores
as such no longer exist.
When civilization reaches the point when there are no
longer any ores, can it continue to function? We now know that
it can, for if necessary our machines could feed successfully
on the leanest of earth substances — ordinary rock, seawater,
air, sedimentary deposits of limestone and phosphate rock, and
sunlight.
We can expect that the industries of the world as a
whole will pass through several stages, at the end of which time
mineral resources will cease to be important factors in world
economy. As high-grade ores diminish in abundance, we will
consume our energy resources more rapidly. As coal dwindles
and become more expensive, its use will be reserved for premi­
um functions such as reducing iron ore and producing organic
chemicals. Eventually iron will be produced entirely without coal,
by reduction with hydrogen in electric furnaces, and coal will be
reserved entirely for production of chemicals. At some time in
the future, aluminum will be produced in the main from anortho­
sites and clays. Consumption of magnesium will increase, partly
as the result of its ready availability in seawater. Sulfuric acid
will be produced entirely from calcium sulfate. Increasing
emphasis wll be placed on the utilization of nitric and hydro-
chlonc acid, largely as a result of the ready availability of raw
materials for both Minor elements such as copper, tin, lead,
nickel, and germanium will be extracted from ores containing
lower and lower concentrations of the elements, and increasing
emphasis will be placed on the extraction of co-products, among
which costs can be divided, and on the utilization of substitutes.
The mining industries as we know them today will be transform­
ed into enormous chemical industries
Eventually the time will come when ordinary rocks such
as granite wll be looked upon as ores.One hundred tons of aver­
age igneous rock contain, in addition to other useful elements,
8 tons of aluminum, 5 tons of iron. 1,200 pounds of titanium,
180 pounds of manganese. 70 pounds of chromium. 40 pounds
of nickel. 30 pounds of vanadium. 20 pounds of copper. 10
pounds of tungsten, and 4 pounds of lead Given adequate
supplies of energy, these elements could be extracted from the
rock, and we now know that the rock itself contains the requisite
amount of energy in the form of uranium and thorium
One ton of average granite contains about four grams
of uranium and about twelve grains of thorium These are admit­
tedly tiny amounts, but the energy content of this amount of
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