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About Vernonia's voice. (Vernonia, OR) 2007-current | View Entire Issue (Oct. 3, 2019)
in other words october3 2019 3 Salem Report By Representative Brad Witt The recent news out of Oregon’s Office of Economic Analysis was mostly positive with the release of the state’s third quarter Economic and Revenue Forecast. Oregon continues to see healthy rates of economic growth, however we are not immune to national and inter- national developments. While topline manufacturing indicators in the state look good, cracks may be forming due to the trade war. All told, Oregon contin- ues to hit the sweet spot for now. Growth is strong enough to keep up with an in- creasing population and deliver eco- nomic and income gains to Oregonians. The share of working-age residents with a job is higher than the nation’s average and both wages and overall household incomes continue to rise. The September forecast reflects a stable economic outlook, but heading into the new biennium, uncertainty about the performance of the nationwide econ- omy has become paramount. Growth will certainly slow to a sustainable rate in the coming years, but Oregon is better positioned than ever before to weather a revenue downturn. Automatic deposits into the Rainy Day Fund and Education Stability Fund have added up over the decade-long economic expansion. When the expected ending balance for the cur- rent biennium is included, Oregon has more than $2.5 billion in reserves set aside, amounting to more than 12% of the two-year budget. The impacts of the trade war with China are only beginning to be felt. Given the recent Chinese retaliation of not buying any U.S. agricultural prod- ucts, the International Monetary Fund recently modeled various U.S. – China trade scenarios and found that Oregon agriculture does see more exposure than many states and those exports are cur- rently down. Oregon’s agricultural ex- ports include a variety of specialized products such as fresh berries, fruits, and hazelnuts. And while it may be easier to find new international markets for com- modities such as soybeans, wheat, and corn, it is more difficult to establish new markets and find new customers for spe- cialized or niche products and services as they are not as interchangeable as commodities. As such, it will likely take more time for global trade patterns to shift for these customized products. Oregon businesses that are start- ups are at an all-time low, with data start- ing in the late 1970s. Associated start-up employment follows a similar pattern. The concern is that new businesses are generally considered the source of inno- vation and new ideas, products, and ser- vices that help propel economic growth. To the extent that fewer start-ups indi- cate that R&D more broadly is not be- ing undertaken, slower growth is to be expected moving forward. If the larger firms that have won out in today’s mar- ketplace are investing in innovation-re- lated R&D perhaps the worries about the number of start-ups today may be over- stated. However these longer run, down- ward trends in new business formation warrants, at the very least, concern about future growth prospects. Importantly, Oregon does enjoy the long-term advantages of low electric- ity costs; a central location between the large markets of California, Vancouver, and Asia; clean water; low business rents and living costs when compared to other Left Coast locations; and an increasingly diverse industrial base. Recently I attended the Leg- islative Council on River Governance (LCRG). This group, composed of legis- lators from the Columbia River states of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Mon- tana, meets to discuss common chal- lenges and emerging opportunities faced by the people living and doing business in the Columbia River Basin. We share strategies to address common challenges and work together to leverage new op- portunities. At the Council meeting, we received an overview of the Columbia River Treaty negotiations, regional im- pacts of energy policy on the Columbia River Basin, fishery issues, and aquatic species prevention. In mid-September lawmakers returned to the Capitol in Salem for Leg- islative Days to receive updates on legis- lation, rulemaking, budgets, and prepare for the 2020 short session. The House Interim Committee on Economic Development heard com- pelling but disappointing information on Growing Capital Access for Oregon Small Business. Many people testified about the challenges of finding the mon- ey necessary to fund a start-up, and the loss of potential business in Oregon is detrimental for the overall economy. Successful Oregon small busi- ness owners seeking capital investment to expand their operations in rural areas mentioned the difficulty to obtain fund- ing and are hoping the state can establish grants or another low barrier funding tool. Many of the small business own- ers testified that after the last economic downturn, the banking industry tight- ened their lending rules, and this has resulted in decreased Oregon charter bank investment in business start-ups. We cannot depend on private venture capital investors for Oregon small busi- nesses. Currently 80% of all venture capital investment in the country occurs in California, New York, and Massachu- setts. That means the remaining 20% is split up within the other 47 states, mak- ing it extremely difficult to access funds from these so-called “angel” investors. Because it is so incredibly important to build and invest in small businesses, Oregon needs to step up, and figure out a pathway to help ease this problem. As lawmakers we need to be mindful of the impacts of any proposed legislation on small business. We need to look at un- intended consequences and be willing to look at legislation implementation time lines, worker compensation rates, gas taxes – anything that impacts the business bottom line. I believe it is time to investigate all options going forward, because new business formation helps propel economic growth and strength- ens our communities. The Joint Committee on Trans- portation received an update on the “Real ID” driver licenses. The Real ID Act of 2005 set new federal standards for issuance of state driver licenses and ID cards. The standards include proof of identity, legal presence, and address. Oregon has been granted several exten- sions regarding this requirement, but as of October 1, 2020 Real ID will be nec- essary for all commercial airline travel, and to access secure federal buildings and installations. Currently Oregon driv- er licenses do not meet the federal Real ID standards but people can use feder- ally issued identification such as a pass- port or passport card for travel. The 2017 Legislative Assembly directed DMV to begin offering the op- tion of Real ID compliant driver licenses and ID cards, and those will come on line in July of 2020. There are concerns from the agency, that the DMV cannot serve a million Oregonians in the less than three months between July and Oc- tober who could be looking to obtain a Publisher and Managing Editor Scott Laird 503-367-0098 scott@vernoniasvoice.com Contributors Corrie Aiuto Korina Buehrer Jack Kauppila Olivia Keister Flo Lennox Representative Brad Witt Photography Scott Laird Want to advertise? Have an article? Contact: scott@vernoniasvoice.com One year subscriptions (24 issues) $35 Vernonia’s Voice is published on the 1 st and 3 rd Thursday of each month. Vernonia’s Voice, LLC PO Box 55 Vernonia, OR 97064 503-367-0098 Real ID. ODOT is launching a signifi- cant communications campaign regard- ing the upcoming requirements. DMV is making operational changes in an- ticipation of the surge of customers they are expecting beginning in July, hiring additional employees, expanding on- line offerings, and the expansion of the successful third-party testing program which oversees private businesses that currently conduct Class C and Commer- cial Driver Licensing examinations. On October 4, U.S. Congress- woman Suzanne Bonamici will hold a Town Hall meeting to discuss Federal is- sues at the Scappoose High School Con- ference Room. That meeting begins at 2:30 pm. Email: Rep.BradWitt@oregonlegislature.gov Phone: (503) 986-1431 Address: 900 Court St NE, H-382, Salem, OR, 97301 Website: http://www.oregonlegislature.gov/witt Cedar Side Inn FULL SPORTS PACKAGE! 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