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November 17, 2017 CapitalPress.com 5 Washington apple crop grows By DAN WHEAT Capital Press Washington apple report, Nov. 1 (Millions of 40-pound boxes) Dan Wheat/Capital Press File Yolanda Penaloza loads trays with Red Delicious apples at Valicoff Fruit Co., Wapato, Wash., on Oct. 12, 2016. Red Delicious sell well in Mexico, Indonesia and India. WTO ruling helps apples, other exports to Indonesia By DAN WHEAT Capital Press YAKIMA, Wash. — The Washington apple industry is pleased with the World Trade Organization upholding its ruling issued almost a year ago against Indonesia trade restrictions, says Mark Pow- ers, president of the North- west Horticultural Council. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced the WTO decision Nov. 9, calling it a “resounding vic- tory” that should result in “increase export opportunities for U.S. farmers and ranch- ers.” Since 2012, Indonesia has maintained restrictive licens- ing regimes for horticultural and animal-product imports. The USTR has called them “unjustified.” Powers called them “illegal” and thanked the USTR for hard work over many years to remove the re- strictions. Todd Fryhover, president of the Washington Apple Commission in Wenatchee, said the WTO action is “great news” for apple growers who have excellent supplies for In- donesia this season. Last Dec. 22, USTR an- nounced a WTO panel found in favor of the U.S. and New Zealand in 18 out of 18 claims that Indonesia has been ap- plying import restrictions and prohibitions that are inconsis- tent with WTO rules. The restrictions cost about $115 million in U.S. agricul- tural exports to Indonesia in 2015, including $28 million worth of apples and more than $29 million worth of grapes, the USTR said last December. In a Nov. 9 news release, USTR said U.S. fruit, vege- tables, flowers, juices, cattle, beef, poultry and other animal products were affected by the restrictions. Even with the restrictions, the U.S. exported more than $2.6 billion in agricultural products to Indonesia in 2016 and imported $2.8 billion in agricultural products from In- donesia, USTR said. The U.S. lost an estimated $170 mil- lion worth of exports in 2016 because of the restrictions, USTR said. “Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world and an increasingly important export market for many U.S. agricultural prod- ucts,” USTR said. Indonesia appealed last December’s ruling in Feb- ruary and the WTO has now denied the appeal. Before 2012, Indonesia was a 2.7-million-box per year market for Washington apples, Powers has said. Since then, it has been 1 million boxes lower but could grow back, he said. One million, 40-pound boxes of apples are worth roughly $20 million. New Zealand, China, Chile and other apple exporters also are aided by the ruling so the market will be competitive, he said. Fryhover has said Indone- sia was a 4-million-box mar- ket in 1996 and should easily reach 2.5 to 3 million without restrictions. Indonesians like Red Deli- cious and small apples, which helps Washington’s exports, he has said. WENATCHEE, Wash. — The estimated size of Wash- ington’s 2017 apple crop has grown 5.8 percent in the past three months, adding to nor- mal slippage from early high prices. The Nov. 1 estimate, re- leased Nov. 8 by the Wash- ington State Tree Fruit As- sociation, is 138.5 million, 40-pound, fresh-packed box- es. Harvest of Fuji, Granny Smith and Cripps Pink is just wrapping up. The forecast was 130.9 million boxes on Aug. 1 just before Gala picking start- ed. The forecast was conserva- tive — good weather increased fruit size and thus crop vol- ume. But overall, fruit remains on the small side, which is good for exports and domestic bag sales. “Normally Gala peaks at size 100 (100 apples per 40-pound box), but this year it will be 113. Red Delicious were 72 to 80 last year and this year will be more at 88 to 100,” said Tom Riggan, gen- eral manager of Chelan Fresh Marketing, a major marketer. He said he was surprised the estimate is 138.5 million boxes, that he expected 148 Variety Red Delicious Gala Granny Smith Fuji Honeycrisp Golden Delicious Cripps Pink Others Ambrosia Braeburn Jonagold Total *Forecast **Estimate Aug. 1* Nov. 1** Gain/loss 31 29.5 16.6 18.3 10.5 6.9 6.5 8.4 — 1.16 0.49 33.5 33.4 18.9 17.4 12.4 8 5.7 5.6 1.5 1.15 0.51 2.5 3.9 2.3 -0.9 1.9 1.1 -0.8 -2.8 — -0.01 0.02 130.9 138.5 7.6 NOTE: Totals may not equal sum due to rounding. Source: Washington State Tree Fruit Association million because of a lot of growers picking more fruit than they thought they would in the last couple of months. A partial report on Oct. 1 estimated Gala and Honey- crisp up from August but other varieties didn’t increase and the Gala estimate shrank 1.2 million between Nov. 1 and Oct. 1, Riggan said. “Gala packouts aren’t as good as people thought they’d be. There’s some splitting and bitter pit,” he said. Desmond O’Rourke, re- tired Washington State Univer- Capital Press graphic sity agricultural economist and world apple market analyst, said the crop maybe 140 mil- lion boxes by Dec. 1, but Rig- gan said he doesn’t think so. “It could come in a little less depending on whether all the fruit comes off or not,” he said. At 138.5 million boxes, the crop is second only to the 143.6-million-box crop of 2014. But the 2017 number will fluctuate monthly due to ratio of packout versus cullage during the year-long sales sea- son. As of Nov. 1, 17.3 million boxes had been shipped com- pared with 22.375 million a year ago. But the crop is later. The 2016 crop is finishing out close to 134 million boxes. Washington has approxi- mately 121 million boxes of apples in storage out of nation- al holdings of 143.3 million, 6 percent more than a year ago, according to the U.S. Apple Association. Total national holdings, fresh and processed, is 194.4 million 42-pound, not 40-pound, boxes. The Nov. 1 report shows Gala on the verge of overtak- ing Red Delicious as Wash- ington’s No. 1 volume variety. Red Delicious is estimated at 33.5 million boxes and Gala at 33.4 million. A large crop typically drives down prices but prices are expected to hold better be- cause of weather-driven light crops in Europe, Michigan, Canada and Mexico. However, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service now re- ports Canadian and Mexican imports could slow due to slowing economies, O’Rourke said. “Overall, the picture is not quite as buoyant as we thought in August but it’s hard to com- pare (to last year) because the crop is later,” O’Rourke said. Prices normally start high with new crop in August and September and then drop and hopefully stabilize for heavy holiday shipments in late No- vember through winter. But prices have been at and below production costs for good por- tions of the last couple of years for Red Delicious and Gala due to large volumes. General- ly, $17 to $18 per box is break- even on major varieties. As of Nov. 8, the average asking price among Yakima and Wenatchee shippers for extra fancy (standard grade) medium size 80 and 88 apples per packed box were slipping from a month earlier for Gala, Golden Delicious, Granny Smith and for premium Hon- eycrisp, according to USDA. “Prices will continue to fall until we get the movement we need. Once we get that mo- mentum when exports kick in, prices will stabilize and increase after the first of the year,” Riggan said. “It will be possibly better than last year but time will tell.” Exports will pick up in January and February to the Middle East and elsewhere be- cause of Europe’s lighter crop, he said. “We’re already getting calls from customers in the UK whom we haven’t heard from in a while, lining up for Janu- ary,” Riggan said. 46-3/102
