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FRIDAY, JANUARY 27, 2017 VOLUME 90, NUMBER 4 WWW.CAPITALPRESS.COM $2.00 THE GREAT (TRADE) WALL Associated Press Chinese shoppers buy vegetables at a supermarket in Hangzhou, China. U.S. farmers have sought out China as a market for their fruits, berries, nuts and other crops. QUESTION: How’s China’s economy doing? ANSWER: It’s complicated, especially for U.S. farmers. C Item Population (2016 est.) Labor force in ag (2012 est.) By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI Capital Press hina watchers agree that nation’s economic health is faltering. With a slowing rate of growth and massive debt, Chi- na’s continued status as a global economic powerhouse is in doubt. Investors and economists are split over the situation’s gravity, though. Is the patient merely under the weather — or is it on the verge of cardiac arrest? While the Chinese government has ac- knowledged that some key economic sec- tors are sluggish, its offi cial statistics are met with suspicion by analysts. “We don’t have good data. We don’t have a good sense of what’s going on over there,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for the Stifel Financial Corp., an investment bank. “You wonder how much they’re masking behind those fi gures.” Farmers in the U.S. have reason to worry China vs. U.S. — agricultural production and other trade statistics Total land area (sq. mi.) about economic instability across the Pacif- ic. They were on track to ship roughly $20 billion worth of agricultural products to China last year, making it the second larg- est destination for U.S. farm goods behind Canada. Even so, U.S. agricultural exports to Chi- na have fallen more than 20 percent from the most recent peak of about $26 billion in 2012, according to USDA. Soybeans are the biggest agricultural ex- port to China, but many other farm goods from across the U.S. also cater to the mar- ket, including fruits, nuts, wheat, cheeses, livestock hides and grass seed produced in the West. Serious deterioration in the Chinese economy would further diminish demand for U.S. farm products, in turn weighing Turn to CHINA, Page 12 Ag land as percent of total (2011 est.) Irrigated land (sq. mi., 2012) GDP (purchasing power parity, 2016 est.) Ag as percent of GDP (2016 est.) China United States 1.37 billion 324 million 270.1 million 1.1 million 3.7 million 3.8 million 54.7% 44.5% 266,440 101,930 $21.27 trillion $18.56 trillion 8.6% 1.1% Total value of all imports (2016 est.) $1.44 trillion $2.2 trillion Ag imports, total (2014) $146.6 billion $111.7 billion Total value of all exports (2016 est.) Ag exports, total $2.01 trillion $1.47 trillion $79.8 billion (2013) $150 billion (2014) Source: USDA ERS, FAS; www.cia.gov Alan Kenaga/Capital Press “Certainly the system could collapse. However, like our housing bubble, bubbles can continue for a long time and it is diffi cult to predict when they might burst.” Desmond O’Rourke, a retired Washington State University agriculture economist and world apple market analyst Ag reaction split on Trump’s withdrawal from TPP Capital Press Ag groups are split on President Donald Trump’s decision to with- draw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacifi c Partnership, a 12-nation trade agree- ment negotiated by the Obama ad- ministration. Many U.S. agricultural groups saw the TPP as a potential boon. It included the U.S. and 11 other coun- tries — Japan, Cana- da, Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Chile, Ma- laysia, Peru, New Zea- land, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam. Japan, Mexico and Trump Canada are among the biggest trade partners for U.S. agriculture. Trump also committed to rene- gotiating the North American Free INSIDE Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico. If partners refuse a re- vamped pact that gives American workers “a fair deal,” Trump said he will give notice of Duvall intent to withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA. American Farm Bureau Feder- ation President Zippy Duvall said in a statement that his organization Capital Press SPOKANE AG EXPO SPECIAL SECTION • Spokane Ag Expo and Pacifi c Northwest Farm Forum at a glance • Popular weatherman Art Douglas to deliver his annual forecast The Farm Bureau pledged to work with the Trump administration to en- sure that U.S. agriculture can com- pete in the global marketplace. “American agriculture is virtually always a winner when trade agree- ments remove barriers to U.S. crop and livestock exports because we impose very few compared to oth- er nations,” Duvall said. “We need the administration’s commitment to Turn to TPP, Page 12 Scotts defends decision to seek deregulation for GE bentgrass By SEAN ELLIS Inland Northwest’s biggest ag show returns to Spokane on Feb. 7-9 viewed TPP as a positive for agricul- ture. It would have added $4.4 billion annually to the struggling agriculture economy, he said. “With this decision, it is critical that the new administration begin work immediately to do all it can to develop new markets for U.S. ag- ricultural goods and to protect and advance U.S. agricultural interests in the critical Asia-Pacifi c region,” Du- vall said. ONTARIO, Ore. — USDA offi cials have defended their Jan. 17 decision to deregulate a genetically engineered creeping bentgrass that escaped fi eld trials in 2003 and has taken root in two Oregon counties and a small part of one Idaho county. And Scotts Miracle-Gro Co., which created the grass, defended its decision to seek a deregulated status for the grass despite agreeing not to commercialize it. Environmental groups, on the other hand, continue to harshly criticize US- DA’s decision to deregulate the creep- ing bentgrass, which was developed by Scotts and Monsanto Corp. to withstand applications of glyphosate, the active in- gredient in Monsanto’s Roundup weed killer. Rick Coker, a USDA public affairs specialist, told Capital Press in an email the department must, under the Plant Pro- tection Act, respond to any petition that re- quests a determination of regulatory status for a genetically engineered organism. USDA’s decision must be based on whether the organism is likely to pose a plant pest risk, he said. If the department determines it does not, it “has no legal basis to continue to regulate that GE or- ganism and must deregulate (it).” After escaping fi eld trials, the bent- grass took root in Malheur and Jefferson counties in Oregon and part of Canyon County in Idaho. Scotts reached a 10-year memoran- dum of agreement and memorandum of understanding with USDA in 2015 that Turn to SCOTTS, Page 12 4-1/#14 By MATTHEW WEAVER