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8 CapitalPress.com December 2, 2016 Analysts ID key areas for ag to watch after elections terms of positive and negative im- plications, said Sterling Liddell, a senior analyst at the bank. Three key areas should be watched — regulation, trade and la- bor, he said. Trump has stated that he intends to reduce the number of regulations, and regulations add cost. The gener- al perception of regulation in agri- culture is that less would be positive, especially when the cost of produc- tion is so high relative to the prices farmers are receiving, he said. But he has also stated dissatisfac- tion with current and proposed trade deals, and that’s an area of concern for agriculture. “Trade keeps becoming more and By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press While President-elect Donald Trump’s policies have yet to be clearly defi ned, his campaign sug- gests they will be drastically differ- ent from the current administration’s. Add Republican control of the Senate and House to the scenario and swift action is likely in January, when the new administration takes offi ce. Although it’s too early to quanti- fy the implications, analysts at Rabo- bank have outlined key policy areas for those in agriculture to watch. The current outlook for agricul- ture appears somewhat balanced in more important all the time,” he said. For example, 70 percent of U.S. soybean production can go to export in any given year, and the U.S. is be- coming more dependent on Mexico buying U.S. poultry and pork, he said. No one knows yet if Trump will be positive or negative for trade. It’s a “very big question,” he said. The economy is also a question. If it begins improving dramatically and further strengthens the U.S. dol- lar, it will further hamper U.S. com- petitiveness in international markets, he said. While an improved economy leads to more people eating out and spending more, it’s a net negative for agriculture because of the contrac- tion in exports, he said. In their report on what to watch for, Rabobank analysts said while it’s too early to know, major chang- es to the North America Free Trade Agreement are in doubt because the U.S., Mexico and Canada are in many ways an integrated agricultural market. The Trans-Pacifi c Partnership, however, is unlikely to happen during Trump’s administration. However, some markets — such as Russia — could reopen to the U.S. and others, such as post-Brexit Brit- ain, could strengthen, they said. The fi nal piece to watch is immi- gration. Labor costs are already go- ing up, and tightening immigration enforcement could send those costs higher, Liddell said. Agriculture is already facing less labor availability due to increasing opportunities for laborers in Mexi- co, lower birth rates in Mexico and stricter immigration law enforce- ment. “Producers may need to start thinking more about technological investments,” the analysts stated. Over the next month, Trump will be announcing his cabinet members. Things will depend on who he ap- points and which positions they take. Hopefully, agriculture will have a clearer picture after the fi rst of the year, Liddell said. Sheep producers challenged to meet big goals By SEAN ELLIS Capital Press John O’Connell/Capital Press Butte County, Idaho, residents endorsed changing Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve into a national park in an advisory vote on the November election ballot. Supporters of the concept plan to try again to get the Idaho Legislature to support a memorial endorsing the change, but Idaho Farm Bureau Federa- tion offi cials say they plan to fi ght it. County vote renews push for Craters National Park By JOHN O’CONNELL Capital Press ARCO, Idaho — A group pursuing national park status for Craters of the Moon Na- tional Monument plans to re- sume its push to win the Idaho Legislature’s blessing follow- ing a Nov. 8 advisory ballot in which local voters supported the concept. Idaho Farm Bureau Federa- tion vows to continue fi ghting the status change, fearing it would enable the federal gov- ernment to place new restric- tions on the area’s agricultural producers. Butte County voters en- dorsed the change — pro- posed for 55,000 acres of the 750,000-acre national mon- ument and preserve — by a 715-529 vote. President Cal- vin Coolidge created the mon- ument in 1924 under the An- tiquities Act. “We work for our voters,” said Rose Bernal, a Butte County commissioner and co-chairwoman of the Coali- tion to Change the Name. “We don’t want to go forward and do things our constituents ar- en’t in support of.” In 2015, the coalition ob- tained endorsements of lead- ers from nearby cities, the fi ve contiguous counties, the Idaho Association of counties and the Idaho Senate. But a memorial express- ing the state’s support of the park died in the Idaho House of Representatives without a vote. Members of Idaho’s congressional delegation have agreed to back the measure in Congress if it’s broadly sup- ported by the public and state leaders. The Idaho Farm Bureau passed a resolution against the name change last December. Farm Bureau spokesman John Thompson acknowledged the recently passed advisory vote represents a “pretty big vote of confi dence” and gives the pro- posal new life. Thompson said the Farm Bureau worries about possible restrictions on trucks hauling hay to Magic Valley dairies, using the highway past Cra- ters. Area in detail 20 CRATERS OF THE MOON NATIONAL MONUMENT AND PRESERVE 24 Rupert Pocatello R. American S n ak e Falls Proposed for national park status N 20 miles 15 84 Idaho Utah Capital Press graphic He noted hay shipments on the highway through Yellow- stone National Park’s north- west corner must be certifi ed weed-free, and loads must be covered, which is costly to growers. Thompson said the potential loss of grazing is also a concern. “We think the people out there have good intentions and want to improve their econ- omy, but at the same time, a lot of things can change at the federal level,” Thompson said. Craters of the Moon Su- perintendent Wade Vagias said the only differences under a national park designation would likely be the names on signs and more visitors. Vagias referenced a study suggest- ing monuments that become national parks experience a 6 percent increase in visitors. Visitation is already on the rise, with the 250,000 visitors in 2015 representing a 20 per- cent increase over three years. Vagias said the state con- trols the highway to Craters and grazing is already pro- hibited within the 55,000-acre area under consideration for a national park. Separate from the national park discussion, the Bureau of Land Management is accept- ing public comment on an en- vironmental impact statement to determine where to allow grazing within its portion of the preserve, Vagias said. SUN VALLEY, Idaho — The U.S. sheep industry was challenged to embrace some lofty goals during the West Central States Wool Growers Convention, which included ranchers from Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming. Superior Farms CEO Rick Stott, a keynote speaker, chal- lenged the sheep industry to set a goal of doubling per-cap- ita lamb consumption in the U.S. over the next fi ve years, from 1 pound to 2 pounds. He also asked sheep pro- ducers to embrace the goal of increasing the ewe lambing rate from 1.1 to 1.5 within the next fi ve years. The ewe-to-lamb rate re- fers to how many lambs the average ewe produces annual- ly that actually reach the mar- ket in the fall. “We can no longer have small dreams,” Stott said, bor- rowing a quote from former President Ronald Reagan. “The future is much bigger than the past in this industry.” The U.S. lamb industry faces a stiff challenge from Australia, because the strong U.S. dollar gives Australian producers a 30 percent margin advantage right off the bat, he said. But signifi cantly raising the ewe lambing rate and doubling domestic lamb con- sumption, while building the American lamb brand at the same time, would provide a signifi cant boost to domestic producers, Stott said. “I’m telling you, it can be done,” he said. “We are in for some very hard work. But we’ve got some great poten- tial in this industry.” Given that 40 percent of American consumers have never tried lamb, the goal of doubling lamb consumption in the U.S. is doable, Stott told Sean Ellis/Capital Press Superior Farms CEO Rick Stott speaks with sheep producers Nov. 18 during the West Central States Wool Growers Convention in Sun Valley, Idaho. Stott, a keynote speaker, challenged the sheep indus- try to embrace some big goals, including doubling per-capita U.S. lamb consumption over the next fi ve years. Courtesy USDA The U.S. sheep industry has been challenged to double per-capita lamb consumption in the coming fi ve years. Capital Press. And because each ewe is genetically capable of birth- ing twins, achieving a 1.5 lambing rate could be done by culling the bottom 10 per- cent of ewes each year for fi ve years, he said. Each ewe means about a $9 profi t for producers when it comes to covering operat- ing costs, and increasing the ewe-to-lamb rate to 1.5 would take that profi t amount to $64 a head, he said. Producers reacted posi- tively to Stott’s goals. “Those are huge goals but they are achievable,” said Matt Mickel, president of the Utah Wool Growers Associa- tion. “I’m glad he threw them out there because it gives us something to strive for.” People who attended the Nov. 17-19 convention said they were hopeful that Pres- ident-elect Donald Trump’s victory could be positive for the industry, especially when it comes to issues such as over-regulation, litigation by environmentalists and grazing on public lands. “We’re optimistic that some changes will occur,” said Stan Boyd, general manager of Rocky Mountain Sheep Marketing Association. Boyd said the biggest change that would help the sheep industry is reform of burdensome regulations be- cause “the industry is just simply over-regulated.” Ethan Lane, executive di- rector of the Public Lands Council, which advocates for Western sheep and cat- tle ranchers, said his group would submit to the new ad- ministration a comprehensive list of recommendations that could benefi t the industry. They will include reform of the Endangered Species Act and Antiquities Act and cutting down on litigation abuse by environmental groups. Settlement prompts company to line leaky stretch of canal By JOHN O’CONNELL Capital Press ABERDEEN, Idaho — The Aberdeen-Springfi eld Canal Co. has installed a buried, plas- tic liner along a leaky, mile- long reach of its main canal in the Moreland area. General Manager Steve Howser said the project, com- pleted Nov. 15, lies within the second leakiest reach of the main canal. The recently lined mile lost water at a rate of 75 cubic feet per second when he diverted 1,000 cfs. The loss translated into 150 acre-feet of water per day or 30,000 acre-feet during a typical irrigation season. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fl ood a foot- ball fi eld 1 foot deep. Howser explained he prior- itized the stretch because it had a gravel bottom, making it far easier to line than reaches over basalt rock. Courtesy of Aberdeen-Springfi eld Canal Co. Workers with Aberdeen-Springfi eld Canal Co. install a liner on a mile-long stretch of their southeast Idaho canal. About half of the savings will be from storage water, buying the system’s irrigators an added fi ve days of reservoir water during peak irrigation season. Natural fl ows saved by the liner will benefi t users downstream. Howser said the project was necessary to help his system cope with an irrigation shift in response to the 2015 water call settlement between the Surface Water Coalition and junior groundwater irrigators. He an- ticipates 15,000 to 17,000 acres that have been irrigated with wells but also have canal rights will return to his system as shareholders seek to meet man- datory groundwater reductions. Howser said the lining project should enable his sys- tem to serve an added 10,000 acres. By next fall, he also plans to fi nish lining anoth- er adjacent mile upstream, which should save enough water to irrigate 20,000 acres. “We’re saving this water so in subsequent seasons as we start to see acres come back on the canal, we’ll have a suffi - cient water supply in storage to serve them,” Howser said. The company hired a con- tractor to assist in excavation but used its own employees and equipment for most of the la- bor. The plastic liner is 30 mil- limeters thick and came in 300- by 128-foot panels that were welded together and buried 2 feet deep. The vendor warran- ties buried liner for 25 years. Howser said the project cost $420,000, but the company re- ceived a $178,000 U.S. Bureau of Reclamation WaterSMART grant. Howser said he was sur- prised to get the grant, given that his staff hydrologist had a short time frame to complete the paperwork and initially considered the effort to be prac- tice for the next grant cycle. Feedlots aggressively selling beef, but slow buying By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press Feedlots continue to roll out fed cattle but have slowed their purchases of feeder cattle, ac- cording to USDA’s latest cattle on feed report. Marketing of fed cattle from feedlots with 1,000-head capac- ity or more was up 5 percent in October year-over-year, while cattle placed into feedlots were down 5 percent, USDA Nation- al Agricultural Statistics Service reported. “The report showed a con- tinuation, in part, of what we’ve been seeing — marketing is very strong,” said Derrell Peel, live- stock marketing specialist with Oklahoma State University Ex- tension. While the report shows a 5 percent increase in marketing, there was one less business day this October — making it more like a 10 percent increase, he said. As for lower placements, higher year-over-year place- ments started in February with only a drop-off in September. Feedlots have been pulling cattle ahead through the system, and marketing has been strong all year, he said. Year-to-date, feedlot market- ings are up an impressive 5.2 percent, as seen in continued strong slaughter numbers — up 5.6 percent year to date, he said. “We’re going to end the year with stronger production num- bers than I thought two or three months ago,” he said. Beef production is up 5.3 per- cent year to date through Octo- ber. While he expects slaughter Courtesy USDA to moderate in November and December, beef production will Feedlots continue to aggressively market fed cattle, but still outstrip last year, he said. have slowed down their purchase of feeders.
