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12 CapitalPress.com July 29, 2016 GMO market disruptions, she said. Apart from impeding global com- merce in GMOs, the law is a public relations victory for opponents of bio- technology, Boote said. “It sets prec- edent.” Biotech critics, meanwhile, say the ban could give Russian farmers a leg up with exports to the U.S. and Eu- rope. “Non-GMO markets are growing globally,” said Doug Gurian-Sherman, director of sustainable agriculture for CONTINUED from Page 1 However, few GMOs have re- ceived such approval, so the law effec- tively prevents shipments of U.S. bio- tech crops from increasing, Boote said. Russia’s government also has the power under the new law to ban GMO imports due to any perceived health or environmental threat without scientifi c proof of a hazard, which can lead to the Center for Food Safety, a nonprofi t critical of genetic engineering. In the U.S., the recently passed fed- eral GMO labeling bill — which bio- tech critics opposed as being too lax — will likely spur demand for non- GMO foods, he said. “If anything, it’s likely to make consumers more suspicious.” Russia’s agricultural productivity isn’t likely to suffer due to the ban on GMO breeding and cultivation, as tra- ditional breeding and improved agron- TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership: A two-way street CONTINUED from Page 1 The increase in export opportunities for U.S. agriculture would outweigh new access to the U.S. for overseas farmers and ranchers, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. The trade commission forecasts that if TPP takes effect U.S. agricultural exports would increase by $7.2 billion by 2032. Agricultural imports to the U.S. from TPP partners would increase by $2.7 billion. TPP’s agricultural support- ers argue lower tariffs and the elimination of non-tariff barriers, such as protection- ist-motivated food safety and phytosanitary restric- tions, will help farmers ex- port more food, particularly to Japan and Vietnam. But not all farm groups favor TPP. The National Farmers Union has histori- cally opposed trade agree- ments, warning they in- crease the trade deficit to the detriment of the entire U.S. economy. The group also has historically been on the losing end of the argument, after prolonged and bitter fights. “The history on these things is you never kill them, you just delay them,” said Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union and a former North Dakota commissioner of agriculture. “That’s what was set up to happen this time,” he said. “Then along came Donald Trump.” TPP’s future With both candidates com- mitted to opposing TPP, sup- porters say the only chance for it to gain congressional approval is during the lame- duck session that will follow the November election. On Jan. 20, President Barack Obama, whose admin- istration negotiated TPP, will leave offi ce. That would like- ly leave an anti-TPP president — either Clinton or Trump — in charge. The new Congress may also have more Demo- crats, who would likely line up against the treaty. Republicans typically provide most of the votes for free-trade agreements. “It would really be diffi- cult for a new administration and new Congress in 2017 to take up and pass something as monumental as TPP,” said Kent Bacus, associate direc- tor of legislative affairs for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. That leaves TPP support- ers such as Bacus thinking about a post-election and pre-inauguration ratification vote. “We have a Democratic administration that’s strong- ly supportive of it and plenty of pro-trade Democrats, but this is an election year and a lot of people are worried about getting attacked by an- ti-trade groups,” Bacus said. “Hopefully, some will come out after the election and support TPP.” Johnson of the National Farmers Union is thinking the same thing. He agrees the trade deal’s best chances are with a lame- duck Congress. He also says passing TPP in December would reaffirm suspicions about the political establish- ment. “To deal with an issue of this consequence in a lame-duck session would be done for only reason — be- cause nobody had the guts to do it before the election,” Johnson said. “It’s kind of a Rules CONTINUED from Page 1 “Boy, you guys just whipped the energy out of me,” said Snohomish County dairy farmer Don Tillman, 82. More than 100 people at- tended the hearing at What- com Community College on Ecology’s proposal to require up to 300 mid-sized and large dairies to obtain a permit to operate a concentrated animal feeding operation. Ecology estimates that complying with the permit will cost a dairy between $11,000 and $25,000 over fi ve years. To ease the fi nancial hard- Product Total U.S. export, 2014 Dairy $7.1 billion Beef $7.1 billion After TTP Exports Imports $1.8 billion $876.1 million $574.9 million $119.2 million Wheat $1.5 million $18.2 million Rice $2 billion $12.5 million Japan and Canada would slowly lower selected tariffs, but both markets would remain highly managed. TPP members are not expected to significantly increase exports to the U.S. U.S. would increase beef exports to Japan. Exports to Vietnam would also increase, but from a low base. Most of the increase in U.S. beef imports would come from New Zealand. $419 million Fruit, $18.7 billion * vegetables and nuts $8 billion Remarks $348.6 million The trade commission concluded that TPP would not significantly change overall wheat production. The National Association of Wheat Growers remains a strong supporter, arguing the trade deal will open up new markets in Asia. Rice production is expected to be slightly lower. U.S. rice growers would gain access to Japanese markets, but lose domestic sales to Vietnamese farmers and lose a tariff advantage in Mexico. $15.3 million * Includes fresh and frozen Don Jenkins and Alan Kenaga/Capital Press Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement partners Potential future partners Alaska (U.S.) Canada U.S. Japan China Hawaii (U.S.) Thailand Mexico Cambodia Malaysia/ Singapore Peru Vietnam Brunei-Darussalam Australia Chile New Zealand Source: aflcio.org Alan Kenaga/EO Media Group rotten way to run a govern- ment.” The Republican Party has led the way on trade deals. In 1985, President Ron- ald Reagan signed the first agreement, with Israel. The House ratified it unanimous- ly, and the Senate approved it by voice vote. In 1993, Republicans pro- vided most of the votes for the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was signed by President Bill Clinton. Free-trade agreements proliferated during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations, always with more support from Repub- licans than Democrats. The U.S. now has free-trade agreements with 20 coun- tries, including six of the 11 TPP partners. The 2012 Republican Party platform lauded trade agreements and criticized Obama for not pursuing more. Former Washington state Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance, who’s running In his acceptance speech at the Republican party’s na- tional convention in Cleve- land, Trump said he would make trade a signature issue of his presidency. “Using the greatest business people in the world, which our country has, I’m going to turn our bad trade agreements into great trade agreements,” he said. He promised “individ- ual deals with individu- al countries,” rather than “massive” deals “no one reads or understands.” Trump also predicted that Sanders supporters “will join our movement because we will fix his biggest single issue: Trade deals that strip our country of its jobs and strip us of our wealth as a country.” Throughout the speech, Sanders sent out uncom- plimentary tweets, includ- ing one that called Trump a “hypocrite” for making Trump-branded products in “low-wage countries abroad.” Nevertheless, Trump, the Republican nominee, and Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, are simpatico on free-trade agreements and TPP. “It’s a turning point for this country,” said Bill Bullard, CEO of the cattle and sheep producer group R-CALF USA, which oppos- es TPP. “I think it refl ects the fact we have not achieved the prosperity free-trade agree- ments are supposed to bestow on citizens. It simply has not materialized,” he said. His organization argues ship on the industry, the agen- cy plans to exempt from the rules about 100 dairies that have fewer than 200 mature cows. After Tuesday’s hearing, Ecology’s special assistant on water policy Kelly Suse- wind said the department may consider redrawing the line and exempting more dairies. He said dairy farmers have raised valid concerns that Ecology’s analysis didn’t account for all costs. Ecology didn’t include the fi nancial impact of not being able to spread manure within 100 feet of ditches and other waterways that are unprotect- ed by vegetation or other mea- sures, such as an embankment. Ecology says it plans to al- low commercial fertilizers in the buffers, though that will increase production costs and could hinder organic farming. Also, Ecology assumed ev- ery dairy has just one lagoon, though many dairies have multiple lagoons. The agency estimated a lagoon assess- ment would cost $7,400. “If you want us out of here, you may get your way be- cause this is cost-prohibitive,” testifi ed Lynden, Wash., dairy farmer Sherman Polinder. “I think the ag land will be replaced with towns and cities,” he said. “And you’re going to have more problems than you have now.” Environmentalists testifi ed that Ecology should require dairies to line lagoons with synthetic fabric to prevent leaks and to install wells to monitor groundwater. Puget Soundkeeper Execu- tive Director Chris Wilke said Ecology has yielded too much to farm interests, calling the agency’s proposal a “traves- ty.” “We understand Ecology is under big pressure from the agricultural lobby,” he said. Susewind said soil tests should detect threats to groundwater, without requir- ing farmers to drill numerous Then came Trump Top 5 agricultural exports from the Northwest and California, 2013 Rank California Washington Idaho Oregon 1 2 3 4 5 Fruits/nuts Fruits/nuts Wheat Wheat Vegetables Vegetables Dairy Fruits/nuts Dairy Wheat Vegetables Vegetables Cotton Dairy Beef/veal Dairy Rice Beef/veal Feed/fodder Beef/veal Value of ag exports (Billions of dollars, 2013) California $20.1 billion Washington 4.5 Idaho 2.4 Oregon 2.1 Source: USDA ERS Alan Kenaga/Capital Press U.S. apples would receive duty-free access to Japan’s market within 11 years. However, TPP will not resolve Japan’s phytosanitary restrictions. TPP eventually will eliminate high tariffs in Japan and Vietnam on processed potato products. Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission; USDA FAS GATS Current TPP partners pects such studies to stop “because the scientifi c community will not be interested in conducting expen- sive research without prospects for commercialization,” according to an agency report. In 2013, Russia passed a law that would allow GMOs to be registered for release into the environment, but public backlash against these crops caused authorities to delay its im- plementation and eventually to enact the recent ban, the FAS report said. omy have been shown to offer better yield gains than biotechnology, Guri- an-Sherman said. If the GMO ban frees up resources for improving drought tolerance and fertilizer effi ciency through conven- tional means, for example, Russia’s productivity is unlikely to suffer, he said. While Russia’s new law does con- tain an exemption for using GMOs in research, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service nonetheless ex- against pro-trade Democrat- ic Sen. Patty Murray, said he now meets Republicans who find his support for TPP “shocking.” “They’re listening to na- tional messages, which are coming from Trump, but others, too,” Vance said. Vance said he finds the attitude remarkable in a state that practically boasts about its dependence on trade. “Our whole economy is based on trade,” he said. “We don’t eat all that wheat they grow in the Palouse.” Turning point Joe Bippert Floyd Gaibler Bill Bullard Roger Johnson Free-trade voices may re-emerge after the election, particularly from lawmakers who represent farm districts and states, said Floyd Gai- bler, director of trade policy for the U.S. Grains Council. “From a political stand- point, I think agriculture has a lot of influence,” he said. “But there’s no doubt about it. You have to acknowledge it’s a pretty heavy lift. The (Obama) administration has to put its full political weight behind it.” TPP supporters also hope Japan’s legislative branch, the Diet, will approve the agreement in September. Because of the size of their economies, the U.S. and Ja- pan are indispensable for TPP ratifi cation. The Japan Times reported recently that business leaders have asked Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to call the Diet into a special session to vote on TPP, hoping to build mo- mentum for U.S. approval af- ter the presidential election. Bacus of the NCBA agreed that passing TPP will be diffi cult, but not impossi- ble. “It’s defi nitely something we can achieve, but it’s something we need all ag- riculture to get behind,” he said. Besides the immediate benefi ts of lower tariffs, farm groups are presenting a big- ger-picture argument that TPP will also lead to more access to non-TPP countries in Asia, such as Indonesia and the Philippines. They also argue that em- bracing TPP will give the U.S. more leverage in negoti- ating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union. If the U.S. rejects TPP, they say, China, which is not a TPP partner, will fi ll a power vacuum and dictate trade policies to Pacifi c Rim nations, while the U.S. will look like an untrustworthy negotiator. “I don’t know what plan B is,” the grains council’s Gai- bler said. TPP would add Japan, Vietnam, New Zealand, Malaysia and Brunei to the countries the U.S. has free-trade agreements with. Even without trade agree- ments, the Washington State Department of Agriculture has participated in trade missions to Vietnam and Japan. “If the Trans-Pacif- ic Partnership doesn’t go through, I don’t see us be- ing able to back away from Southeast Asia,” said Joe Bippert, manager of WS- DA’s international market- ing program. Although he staunchly opposes TPP, Johnson, of the National Farmers Union, said he hopes the U.S. will pursue trade opportunities. “I am a trade proponent,” he said. “I’m against stupid trade agreements. I don’t mean to sound like Donald Trump here.” wells to trace sources of pol- lution. Ecology says it does not have enough evidence of ac- tual groundwater pollution to justify mandating synthet- ic liners. The agency hopes to collect more information about pollution coming from dairies over the next fi ve years, One farmer Tuesday characterized the new permit as an expensive research proj- ect paid for by dairies. A second hearing is sched- uled for Thursday in Yakima. Ecology chose to hold hear- ings in the two counties with the most dairies. Although the rules could apply to other livestock operations, dairies will be most affected because they must store and apply large amounts of manure. Ecology maintains that manure seeps into the ground from storage lagoons, even those designed to standards set by the Natural Resourc- es Conservation Service. To avoid coming under the new permit and its requirements, a dairy would have to make the case that manure seeping from its lagoons isn’t reach- ing groundwater, according to Ecology. The second hearing will be 6 p.m. Thursday, July 28, at the Yakima Convention Cen- ter, Room B, 10 North Eighth St. that TPP would make U.S.- raised beef an “undifferen- tiated cog” in an interna- tional market managed by multi-national meat packers. “It’s called free trade, but what it really is, is globaliza- tion,” Bullard said. The repeal by Con- gress last year of the coun- try-of-origin-labeling law for beef and pork was a “huge factor in generating awareness,” Bullard said. Liberal consumer groups and some ranchers liked the COOL law, but the World Trade Organization ruled it was discriminatory and au- thorized Canada and Mexico to impose $1 billion in retal- iatory tariffs. “We do not want a vote in the lame-duck session because we believe that’s the only time the agreement could pass Congress,” Bul- lard said. “We’d like to see both parties support their presidential candidates’ po- sitions on TPP.” Mindful of a post-elec- tion vote on TPP, Republi- cans ended their platform’s section on trade with this: “Significant trade agree- ments should not be rushed or undertaken in a lame- duck Congress.” Full-court press