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July 22, 2016 CapitalPress.com Subscribe to our weekly dairy or livestock email newsletter at CapitalPress.com/newsletters 9 Dairy/Livestock U.S. dairymen fare better than global counterparts By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press TWIN FALLS, Idaho — Burdensome product invento- ries and weakened demand are weighing down global markets, delivering dismal milk prices to farmers around the world. But there is a bright light at the end of the tunnel. It will just take some time to get there, Rabobank dairy analyst Tom Bailey told dairymen at an in- formation update dinner on July 13. Markets are dealing with 6.4 million tons of extra product inventory (liquid milk equiv- alent) compared to normal stocks. That represents about one month of global trade and is higher than Idaho’s 6.3 mil- Carol Ryan Dumas/Capital Press Tom Bailey, right, dairy analyst for Rabobank’s Food and Agri- culture Research and Advisory Group, talks with Brian Parks, a Rabobank senior inancial analyst, during the bank’s information update dinner for clients in Twin Falls on July 13. lion tons of annual milk pro- duction, he said. Fortunately, U.S. producers are in a much better position than their counterparts around the world, with a farm gate milk price of about $15 per hundred- weight — compared with $8 to $9 in New Zealand and $11 in Europe, he said. That $15 is “slightly above or below break-even, which is fairly fortunate for us since everyone else is below break- even,” he said. U.S. producers have been pretty level-headed, growing production a steady and modest 1 percent to 2 percent over the last two years. Strong demand for butter and cheese has also helped support milk prices in the U.S., he said. “The U.S. remains excep- tional despite world dynamics,” he said. Modest production growth, strong demand and continued low feed prices means U.S. producers are going to see rea- sonable income over feed mar- gins over the next 12 months, he said. Globally, producers “are not going to be saved anytime soon, but things are going to get a little better,” he said. Global milk production growth, which played a big part in the current situation, is starting to slow, and that’s a good sign for producers, he said. Six of the world’s seven ma- jor exporters have put the brakes on and are not going to see any milk-production growth over the next 12 months, he said. “That’s what we need,” he said. Global milk production will contract in the second half of the year and into 2017. Things are mismatched today, with too much inventory. But global milk production is below where it needs to be for future demand growth, he said. The long-term demand out- look remains good. People are consuming more dairy, and the world will need more milk. By 2018, the dairy industry should be out of this “nasty cycle” and needing to increase milk pro- duction, he said. “Recovery is still a ways out, but long-term recovery looks great,” he said. The U.S. and the EU are going to be big players in sup- plying the additional demand ahead, he said. For now, however, the rough patch will continue. The excess inventories and a strong U.S. dollar are going to keep a ceiling on prices, he said. Range rider program seeks to avert wolf-livestock conlicts By TIM HEARDEN Capital Press DORRIS, Calif. — If wolves come on or near his property, rancher Mark Coats wants to know about it. Coats has received train- ing to be a range rider — a person who goes out sever- al times a week looking for tracks, scat or other signs of wolves or other wildlife that could harm his cattle. The idea is that a human presence can keep wolves away from cattle or move cattle away from wolves if possible. “When we’re out there tracking and looking for scat, we’re looking for live- stock disposition,” Coats said. “Cattle get pretty ner- vous when there are pred- ators around. Cattle will actually relay that to you in their disposition.” Coats is taking part in a new range rider program offered by the California Wolf Center, which sees such programs as a key tool among nonlethal means of preventing wolf-livestock conflicts. The center has two rid- ers stationed in Siskiyou County, where the Shasta Pack was identified by state officials last summer and where a calf was suspected of being taken by wolves last fall. As many as four more riders will be working in the area by this fall. Courtesy of Calif. Wolf Center Karin Vardaman, far right, of the California Wolf Center and others attend a range rider training session in Montana in May. The Wolf Center is setting up a range rider program in which willing ranchers arrange for riders to patrol their properties looking for signs of wolves or other predators. Under the program, will- ing ranchers can arrange for a rider to patrol their prop- erties every few days, Karin Vardaman, the Wolf Cen- ter’s director of California wolf recovery, said. Riders go through a training session in Mon- tana and are paid by the Wolf Center for doing the patrols. “Obviously, we don’t have a handle on where wolves may or may not be, but we wanted to stay ahead of the issue,” Vardaman said. “We’re just kind of starting early and working with producers who are try- ing to get used to the pro- gram.” State and federal pro- tections make it illegal to kill or hunt wolves in Cal- ifornia, even in the case of livestock depredation. Wolf advocates and state offi- cials have been promoting nonlethal means of warding off wolves, including using guard dogs, motion-sen- sor lights, brightly colored flags or range riders or pro- viding supplemental feed to livestock to keep them away from grazing areas where wolves are known to be present. The Wolf Center, which uses grants and donations to support its outreach efforts, has tried to de- velop a collaborative re- lationship with livestock producers. The conservation group sponsored a series of work- shops in far Northern Cal- ifornia in April to teach ranchers how to prevent clashes between their live- stock and predators. All of the center’s range riders are from within the livestock community, Var- daman said. They go out in the morn- ing and again in the eve- ning, and in addition to looking for evidence of predators, they’ll also help ranchers spot any sick or injured cattle or calves within their herds that could attract wolves, she said. Coats said that not all of his neighbors have yet bought into the program. “You have to respect ev- eryone’s wishes,” he said. “It’s just like a neighbor- hood. A lot of people believe in Neighborhood Watch but some people do not.” However, Coats believes it’s imperative that ranchers learn how to coexist with wolves. “What other choice do we have?” he said. “It’s an endangered species pro- tected by the Endangered Species Act. What can we do?” PEACH LUGS & 1 1 ⁄ 2 QT. CORRAGATED BERRY BASKETS Higher temperatures push dairy prices upward For the Capital Press C ash cheese and butter prices headed high- er last week as traders watched the thermometer and heard forecasts of summer heat. Block Cheddar closed Fri- day at $1.66 per pound, up 3 cents on the week and 4 3/4-cents above a year ago. The barrels inished at $1.7450, up 2 1/2-cents on the week and 15 cents above a year ago. One car of block traded hands on the week at the CME and 15 of barrel. The blocks inched up a half-cent Monday and gained a penny and a half Tuesday, hitting $1.68 per pound, the highest block price since Nov. 11, 2015. The barrels were un- changed Monday but added a penny on Tuesday, hitting $1.7550, the highest barrel price since June 11, 2015, and an atypical 7 1/2-cents above the blocks. May commercial disap- pearance was “lackluster at best,” reports FC Stone. To- tal cheese disappearance was unchanged from last year but down 4.4 percent from April. American cheese demand was down 1.4 percent from a year ago and down 5.8 per- cent from April. “The bright spot, if there was one for cheese,” FC Stone says, “was that demand for the ‘other’ cheese category in- creased 0.9 percent from 2015 levels. But even other cheese was 3.5 percent lower than Dairy Markets 503-588-8313 Lee Mielke 2561 Pringle Rd. SE Salem, OR month-earlier levels. As you may have already guessed, we’re expecting June’s usage numbers to tell quite a different story given the sharp price rally in June.” Cheese production is active across the Central region, re- ports Dairy Market News. But “as warm weather prevails and components in milk decrease, manufacturers are making production adjustments. Milk output is also decreasing but contracted milk intakes have not decreased enough to have a substantial impact on planned production for many Midwest cheese makers. “Sales volumes remain high and a few participants note, speciically, that interest in processed cheese is growing,” DMN says. “Several contacts say they are comfortable with inventories now that strong sales have alleviated some stock pressure but internation- al interest remains light as the U.S. dollar gains strength.” Western cheese output re- mains active and strong. Plen- ty of milk is inding its way to the vat, even in areas where milk output is down seasonal- ly. Domestic demand is good for most cheese. Retail sales are solid and process cheese sales are active “while the na- tion is in the midst of grilling season.” Call for Pricing. Subject to stock on hand. Delivery Available ROP-30-3-1/#4X By LEE MIELKE ROP-30-2-1/#7 30-4/#4N