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July 1, 2016 CapitalPress.com 3 Any impact of ‘Brexit’ vote on ag likely to be temporary, experts say By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI Capital Press With British voters de- ciding to leave the European Union, U.S. agriculture may experience a dent in commodi- ty crop prices, experts say. Exactly how much impact a “Brexit” will have had on U.S. crop values is debatable, however. Any major unprecedented event in global inancial mar- kets can lead to volatility, said Lindsey Piegza, chief econo- mist for the Stifel brokerage and investment irm. “The unsettling effect would extend to the agricul- tural commodities market as well,” Piegza said. If the Britain pulling out of the European Union leads to an economic slowdown or recession, businesses and consumers would “tighten their purse strings,” reducing spending and thereby leading to lower prices, she said. While the potential impact of the “Brexit” may be over- blown, the uncertainty of that outcome could be destabiliz- ing, Piegza said. “It could be a self-fulilling prophecy.” If the value of the euro cur- rency drops due to a “Brexit,” the correspondingly higher value of the dollar could hurt exports of U.S. farm goods, said Rich Nelson, chief strat- egist for the Allendale com- modities brokerage irm. Even so, the decrease would likely be temporary and wouldn’t cause “death and devastation,” Nelson said. Britain didn’t gain as much economically as expected from its EU membership, so a withdrawal probably won’t have cataclysmic impacts, he said. Michael Swanson, agri- cultural economist for Wells Fargo Bank, said he’s “highly skeptical of stories of unmiti- gated shocks” from Britain’s EU withdrawal. There’s usually a “feedback loop” that stabilizes markets, Swanson said. If the British pound drops in value due to the “Brexit,” for example, that would in- crease demand for the coun- try’s goods and services over- seas, eventually helping its currency to recover, he said. “According to the experts, the world ends every day, but luckily it seems to start up again the following morning,” he said in an email. AP Photo/Tim Ireland The front page of the Sun newspaper tells the story of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. Fewer Northwest farmers gamble on ickle, volatile ginseng By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI Capital Press Courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Fewer Northwest farmers are growing ginseng, pictured in this photo, because of the crop’s ickleness and price volatility. The crop once provided a proitable niche in the region during its heyday in the 1990s. down from about 130 during the crop’s heyday in the 1990s. There are currently no gin- seng farmers licensed by the Oregon Department of Agri- culture, down from 12 growers in 2000. Licensing is required because the endangered plant is regulated under an international treaty. Five ginseng growers are registered by the Washington State Department of Agricul- ture, but none have yet received a certiicate allowing them to sell the crop. Between 2004 and 2013, the state had no reg- istered ginseng farmers. Ginseng thrives naturally in the deciduous forests of the Midwest and East Coast, where the wild roots have been known to fetch exorbitant prices, but it doesn’t grow under the thick overstory of the Northwest’s conifers, said Brun. To produce ginseng here, per pound, below the cost of production of about $12 per pound, Sego said. The crop’s lack of proit- ability forced many growers to abandon it, but they’ve re- mained wary of returning to the market even after prices picked up in the mid-2000s, he said. In the past decade, cultivat- ed ginseng prices have reached as high as $100 per pound, but the possibility of another price plunge has dampened enthusi- asm for a crop that requires four years to harvest, Sego said. Though ginseng seeds can provide a source of cash after two years, the costs of weeding the crop have nonetheless dis- couraged farmers, particularly as labor has become more ex- pensive, he said. Meanwhile, the prospect of “sudden death” from root rot or leaf blight is as real as ever, Sego said. “It can devastate people.” A contract with a buyer convinced Sego to again plant ginseng, which he is growing organically along with his sta- ple herb crops of goldenseal and ginkgo. In light of the strife caused by ginseng in recent decades, however, he’s not expecting many new local competitors. “I doubt there will be a re- vival,” Sego said. Grass Expertise. Over 40 Years Experience LET’S TALK! Full Color Print & Featured Online Ads Call your sales rep today for details on how you can reach Capital Press Print and Online Readers!!! NEVER PUT YOUR GRASS TO BED DRY OR RISK POSSIBLE WINTER KILL GREENWAY SEEDS 27-4/#13 Caldwell, Idaho • Alan Greenway, Seedsman Cell: 208-250-0159 • MSG: 208-454-8342 Alan Greenway, Seedsman PNW cherry harvest moving well By DAN WHEAT Capital Press YAKIMA, Wash. — The Paciic Northwest cherry har- vest is more than half done with 10.7 million, 20-pound boxes of cherries picked, packed and shipped from May 18 through June 26. The industry eclipsed 500,000 boxes per day on June 24 — “a sure sign that we are in the peak stretch of the dark, sweet crop with sus- tained heavy volume forecast for several weeks,” said B.J. Thurlby, president of North- west Cherry Growers in Ya- kima. The crop still looks to be about 17 million boxes fol- lowing an estimated 1.5 mil- lion-box loss from a heavy June 18 rain, said Tom Rig- gan, general manager of Chel- an Fresh Marketing in Chelan. Export volume totals 3 million boxes with Canada, China, Hong Kong and Tai- wan leading the way, Thurlby said. The 17 million boxes include 1.5 million, 15-pound boxes of the Rainier variety, he said. Packouts are now starting to improve after falling from the mid-90-percent range to the low 80s after the rain, Riggan said. Some growers left damaged cherries un- picked and northern Okan- ogan County had more rain and damage than areas to the south, he said. “Quality is phenomenal. We’re getting a lot of feed- back from retailers and con- sumers that it’s great,” Riggan said. Based on the latest orders, supply is maybe slightly less than demand which is “sort of a perfect scenario,” Riggan said. It keeps prices stable and competitive retail ad prices of $1.99 to $2.99 per pound will keep volume moving the next two weeks, he said. Picking and packing labor Dan Wheat/Capital Press Lucas Perez picks Bing cher- ries in Limon Orchard south of Wenatchee, Wash., on June 16. The harvest is past midway and packouts are improving again after a June 18 rain. is inally adequate after being very tight early on, Riggan said. He attributes the relief to workers moving up from Cal- ifornia and school letting out. Chelan Fruit Co-op slows down apple packing to help out with cherries, he said, adding that probably most packing houses do that. The latest forecasts from USDA’s National Agricul- tural Statistics Service and the Michigan Frozen Food Packers Association show, as usual, Washington leading the nation in sweet cherries and Michigan leading in tart cherries. The Michigan association estimated Michigan’s 2016 tart cherry crop at 262 mil- lion pounds, Utah at 50 mil- lion, Washington at 27 mil- lion, New York at 7 million, Oregon at 3 million and the national total at 351 million pounds. The association estimated Michigan’s sweet cherry crop at 54 million pounds with 52.5 million of that brined, frozen and canned with 1.5 million sold fresh. NASS estimates national sweet cherry production of 318,000 tons, down 6 percent from 2015. The breakdown: Washington, 195,000 tons; California, 60,000; Oregon, 42,000; Michigan, 21,000. 27-1/#6 27-4/#17 Herb farmer Roger Sego will soon ind out whether a 4-year-old bet will pay off. In 2012, Sego planted gin- seng on his property in La Cen- ter, Wash., that he expects to harvest this autumn. Cultivating the medicinal roots for the Asian market is “a real crapshoot,” as the ick- le crop is prone to diseases that can almost instantaneously obliterate yields, he said. Meanwhile, shade cloth and other supplies require a hefty upfront investment that’s inher- ently risky due to steep price luctuations. “There’s not a lot of people who will gamble to do that,” Sego said. Farming always involves a degree of speculation, but the hazards of producing ginseng have scared off most Northwest growers of the crop, which once provided a proitable niche in the region, experts say. “It was all fun but then it all came crashing down,” said Charles Brun, a retired Wash- ington State University Exten- sion specialist who studied the crop. Sego estimates there are currently fewer than 15 gin- seng growers in the Northwest, farmers must buy shade cloth as well as posts and cables to support it over the crop canopy at a cost of roughly $25,000 an acre, he said. The rich clay soils found in many areas of the Northwest are also conducive to root rot in ginseng, and no effective fun- gicide has ever been identiied and registered, Brun said. High prices during the early 1990s nonetheless justiied the trouble and expense of growing ginseng, he said. “For a while there, it did make sense.” As often happens in agricul- ture, though, high prices even- tually led to a glut. Overproduction of ginseng, particularly in Canada, drove down prices from more than $40 per pound to less than $8
