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4 CapitalPress.com January 23, 2015 Top economist addresses Drier winters in store for prices, Farm Bill impact region, weatherman predicts Washington State Univer- sity small grains agricultural economist Randy Fortenbery will discuss export markets, wheat prices, the impacts of the 2014 Farm Bill on the acreage allocation of different crops, farmland prices and lease rates during his upcoming presen- tation at the Pacific Northwest Farm Forum. Fortenbery is small grains endowed chair at WSU in Pull- man. He and weatherman Art Douglas are the featured speak- ers at 9 a.m. Tuesday, Feb. 3, in the DoubleTree Hotel. Some of the most import- ant factors for wheat farmers in 2015 will be Japan’s gross domestic product and the val- ue of the dollar relative to the Matthew Weaver/Capital Press Washington State University small grains economist Randy Forten- bery will discuss the impacts of the 2014 Farm Bill during the Spokane Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm Forum. yen and other major currencies, Fortenbery said. Japan has been struggling to emerge from a years-long recession, and the dollar has been strengthening compared with most curren- cies, including the yen. Japan is a major importer of the soft white wheat grown in the Northwest. “At this point I believe both of these (factors) will have a negative impact on farmer wheat prices in the coming year,” Fortenbery said. The year 2014 wasn’t as good for farmers as 2013 be- cause of significantly lower prices, Fortenbery said. Wheat prices on a national basis may end up averaging below the costs of production, he said. “I think wheat prices may have bottomed out, at least in the short run, but I do not see a major rally in the next few months,” Fortenbery said. He hopes the audience at the Forum leaves “with a little broader understanding” of farm bill impacts. Uncommon two-year El Niño could mean shift in patterns By MATTHEW WEAVER Capital Press The Pacific Northwest could be in for dry winters and wet springs as a long- term El Niño pattern devel- ops, a weather expert says. Art Douglas is the profes- sor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at Creighton Uni- versity in Omaha, Neb., and the featured speaker at this year’s Pacific Northwest Farm Forum, which takes place during the 2015 Spo- kane Ag Expo. Douglas has called for dry winter weather both this year and next. However, entering the spring, the jet stream will be- gin pumping warm, moist air northward toward the Pacific Northwest. “I’m expecting, with a bleak winter, spring will turn around and we’ll really start seeing some moisture, which is not typical of an El Niño,” he said. El Niño is created by a pro- longed warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperatures. Most El Niños have a cold water pool north of Hawaii, limiting the amount of mois- ture for storms, but this one Matthew Weaver/Capital Press Creighton University emeritus professor Art Douglas delivers his forecast at last year’s Spokane Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm Forum. Douglas returns to the Expo in 2015, and says farmers may need to prepare themselves for drier winters moving forward. has a lot of moisture and en- ergy potential, he said. The current El Niño is about two to three months be- hind the normal time frame, he said. National Oceanic and At- mospheric Administration and European models indicate the “misbehaving” El Niño, which will peak late, could create continuous El Niño conditions. By the end of this summer, water temperatures at the equator will approach 1.5 to 2 degrees above nor- mal. “We’re looking at prob- ably a two-year El Niño event,” Douglas said. “Two- year El Niños are not com- mon. ... But this El Niño has just not quite developed like it should.” Most El Niños mean a dry winter and spring in the Northwest, he said. But with the extreme warmth of the Pacific Ocean, Douglas expects a wet spring in the Northwest. Similar El Niños also occurred in 1976-1979 and 1993-1994. Multiyear El Niños only occur 20 to 25 per- cent of the time, he said. Your Dry-Land Farming Partner Providing time-proven quality products to help you manage the challenges of dry-land farming from field preparation to minimum till deep furrow seeding. • Culta-Weeders (36’-60’) and TrashMasters with smooth efficient orbital hydraulic drive motors • Cultivators • AP Drill for deep furrow seeding and fertilizing • Transport Utility Hitches • Sectional Tube Reels for Combines J.E. LOVE COMPANY Productivity Through Innovation Box 188, Garfield, WA 99130 (509) 635-1321 www.jeloveco.com SPAE15-5/#14 Capital Press SPAE15-2/#14 By MATTHEW WEAVER
