Nation & world briefing
U.S. sits at crossroads of war, history
Michael Tackett
Chicago Tribune (KRT)
WASHINGTON — As an anxious
world awaits a report Friday from
U.N. weapons inspectors, the Unit
ed States finds itself at a thorny
crossroads, and the path that it
chooses could define its role in the
world as profoundly as any event
since World War II.
America hasn’t often been in this
place. On the cusp of war, historic al
liances are frayed and fragile. Institu
tions that the United States helped
create and nurture, the United Na
tions and NATO, could lose their rele
vance and effectiveness.
Domestically, officials are warn
ing of an impending terrorist at
tack and imploring people not to
take up arms but rather to take up
rolls of duct tape and plastic sheet
ing to protect against a chemical
or biological attack.
The economy is sputtering, and
conflict, at home or aboard, will
only make it worse.
A series of complicating and con
founding events has created this
moment. And the stakes are much
greater than the narrow confines of
the report that the weapons inspec
tors will present Friday in New
York. President Bush’s newly mint
ed doctrine of pre-emptive warfare
seems close to its first test case,
with or without the assent of the
U.N. Security Council.
“How the U.S. acts in the days
ahead will have profound conse
quences for the future,” Canadian
Prime Minister Jean Chretien told
a dinner gathering of the Chicago
Council on Foreign Relations
Thursday night.
A near-term military victory in
Iraq could still yield long-term
diplomatic problems throughout
Europe and beyond. If the United
States does not find common
ground with China, Germany,
France and Russia — countries
that have sharply challenged the
Bush administration on Iraq —
each individual alliance will be
strained. The relationship with
China, for one, could have dramat
ic implications for how the United
States handles the emerging nu
clear threat in North Korea.
If the U.N. report leads to in
transigence in NATO regarding
military support for Turkey, the
U.S. could simply defy- the al
liance, which has been a corner
stone of international security for
more than half a century.
President Bush is on footing fun
damentally different from that of
his predecessors who have consid
ered war. The U.S. became in
volved in World War I and World
War II haltingly at first. Indeed,
Woodrow Wilson ran for re-elec
tion in 1916 on the slogan, “He
Kept Us Out of War.”
In other conflicts, U.S. involve
ment was guided by the principle
of containment to halt the spread
of communism and the expansion
of the Soviet Union. Still other
wars were the product of provoca
tive, hostile acts that directly af
fected national security and eco
nomic well-being.
None of those urgent factors ap
ply to Iraq. And that is in part why
Friday’s report and how the United
States chooses to respond to it will
have such long-term repercussions.
“I view this decision as a fateful
decision for America’s future place
in the world,” said William Gal
ston, a former senior official in the
Clinton administration and policy
analyst at the University of Mary
land. “It will redefine our relation
ship with every alliance that we are
a member of, every institution that
we are a member of, and every re
gion and every country with which
we have diplomatic, economic and
military relationships.”
For Bush, how the U.S. proceeds
will no doubt shape the 2004 pres
idential campaign, and, should he
win, his second term. On Thurs
day, Bush restated his underlying
reason for changing from the
durable policy of containment to
one of pro-active invasion: “The
world changed on September the
11th. 2001.”
"If you propel the
world into war on
somewhat of a
unilateral basis with
some allies that we
have essentially
bludgeoned and
coerced into it, then
what do you have
when it is over?"
Chuck Hagel
senator, R-Neh.
In a speech to sailors in Jack
sonville, Fla., Bush moved quickly
to Iraq and challenged the United
Nations with sharp words, “Now
the world’s most important multi
lateral body faces a decision. The
decision is this for the United Na
tions: 'When you say something,
does it mean anything?”’
He added that he did not think
that the U.N. would fade into an “in
effective, irrelevant debating society.”
By pointedly challenging the
credibility of the U.N., Bush is sure
to provoke criticism in some capi
tals of Europe but almost equally
certain to be praised in his Repub
lican Party, where skepticism of
the U.N. has deep roots.
Even some in his own party,
however, thought he should lower
the temperature of his words.
“I’m sorry the president has
chosen those words, because I do
not think those words enhance
America’s relationships with the
allies. We need to deal not just
with North Korea and Iraq but
Afghanistan and the Middle East
and beyond,” said Sen. Chuck
Hagel, R-Neb., a member of the
Foreign Relations Committee.
“Sure, if we want to bolt from the
U.N. structure and attack Iraq,
there is little question that we
would win. But at what cost?”
Others worried about the prece
dent that the United States might set.
“It seems to me that if we can
disarm Saddam through collective
international action, engineered
by the United States, we will have
scored a great victory. But more
important, we will have set a
precedent for constructive leader
ship to deal with similar problems
elsewhere,” said Zbigniew Brzezin
ski, who was national security ad
viser to President Jimmy Carter.
“If, on the other hand, we rush to
war oil our own for the sake of re
moving Saddam from power and
not for the sake of disarmament, we
will find ourselves much more iso
lated,” Brzezinski said. “The after
math of the war will be exclusively
our burden, and no constructive
precedents for dealing” with such
situations will have been set.
But Bush also gained adherents to
his view that containment is a Cold
War relic. In an unusual move, the
White House steered reporters to a
speech given Thursday by Sen. John
McCain, R-Ariz., often an adminis
tration critic, in which McCain fully
endorsed the Bush view.
“Proponents of containment
claim that Iraq is in a box,” Mc
Cain said. “But it is a box with no
lid, no bottom, and whose sides
are falling out. ... Containment
failed yesterday in Iraq. Contain
ment fails today. And containment
will fail tomorrow. We would be
placing hope before experience to
think otherwise.”
Yet there are those who do still
think otherwise.
“You don’t have to know a lot
about diplomatic and military his
tory to know that the rise of pre
eminent power tends to lead to
the rise of new powers to try to re
strain the activities of hegemonic
powers,” Galston said. “And we
are now that power. I think a lot of
what is going on in Europe has
less to do in particular with Iraq
policy and more to do with the
much more general sense of what
Rumsfeld called ‘Old Europe’ —
that the United States cannot be
permitted to have complete free
dom of action.”
If that comes to pass, it would
be a new role for the United
States, and it would come at a
time of increased globalization and
economic interdependence.
That is one reason, Hagel said,
that he believes it would be a mis
take to not work within the U N.
structure.
“If you propel the world into war
on somewhat of a unilateral basis
with some allies that we have es
sentially bludgeoned and coerced
into it, then what do you have
when it is over?” Hagel said.
Few doubt that the United
States would prevail militarily in
Iraq. But how the U.S. exercises its
power to get to that end, some
said, is at least as important as the
end itself.
“Right now there is nobody in a
position to act against us,”
Brzezinski said. “Therefore we are
the ones who have to exercise the
best judgment.”
© 2003, Chicago Tribune. Distributed
by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information
Services.
Get Lucky on
Valentine’s Day.
Win Dinner for two,
Movie and a Hot Tub.
LUCKY WINNER WILL ENJOY:
• Theater passes to the Bijou
• Dinner for two at Ambrosia
• 1-hour hot tub rental at Onsen
No purchase necessary. Entry box on main floor.
Winner will be announced Monday, February 17th.
Lots happening at the Bookstore.
Cards, gifts, chocolate and more!
www.uobookstore.com
UNIVERSITY OF OREGON
BOOKSTORE
r
\
A Higher Education
Teachers set high standards for us all . . .
Now it's time for you to set your own standard
Earn a Master of Arts in Teaching degree from
Willamette University's School of Education
An intensive 10-month program
of superior preparation
1000+ hours of hands-on train
ing in public school classrooms
A nationally recognized degree
from a tier-one liberal arts college
Tremendous placement oppor
tunities upon graduation
If you have a bachelor's
degree and a desire to
excel, you too can set a
higher standard.
To apply or for additional information:
Call us: 503-375-5453
WILLAMETTE
THE FIRST UNIVERSITY IN THE WEST
900 STATE STREET, SALEM, OREGON 97301
503-370-6303 WWW.WILLAMETTE.EDU