Oregon daily emerald., November 12, 1982, Image 1

Popping
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balloon of grade
inflation
Part 2
Page 12
Oregon daily
emerald
/5$Uay, November 12, 1982
Eugene. Oregon
Volume 84. Number 51
Chaotic power struggle in store,
say University Soviet-watchers
By Michele Matassa
Of the Emerald
As a result of Premier Leonid Brezhnev's death,
Soviet party and government officials will begin a
chaotic power struggle characterized by "bickering"
and "jostling," say two University professors.
Ron Wixman, associate geography professor,
who studied in the Soviet Union for four months, and
Joseph Fiszman, professor of political science,
agree that the Soviet system stifles pre-planning for
leadership succession.
Fiszman says current leaders usually pick a man
as their successor but these choices are usually
"weaklings " Leaders are reluctant to pick strong
successors for fear they will be overthrown before
their death, Fiszman says,
Wixman says the choice of a successor is also
delayed because "if you don't support the right
people you might be purged It (the system) runs just
like the Mafia," Wixman says
The resulting power struggle is not as in
fluenced by public support as it is by assessed power
within the Politburo (the Communist Party) and the
government, Wixman says
The professors agree that this factor puts most
of the pressure on Soviet leaders
Reports of a possible long-term joint rule in the
country have surfaced, but neither professor agrees
with these projections
Fiszman says after a short period of collective
rule in the Soviet Union, one leader will emerge This
man will have to have the backing of the military."
he says
Both professors rule out the possibility of Polit
buro official Yuri Andropov succeeding Brezhnev
because of his association with the KGB, the Soviet
Union's secret police The KGB is a competitor of the
military faction
Other than this exclusion of Andropov, both
Wixman and Fiszman hesitate to predict a succes
sor However, they each have ideas on what type of
leadership the Soviet Union — and the rest of the
world — is in store for
Wixman, also associate director of the Universi
ty'Russian and East European studies program,
expects a strictly conservative, anti-Western rule to
succeed Brezhnev This new rule will cause trouble
in Poland, according to Wixman, who says "If I were
the Poles, I would really worry now ”
He says Brezhnev's liberalism contributed to his
failure in the Polish and Afghanistan crises and the
ongoing food shortage
In spite of this expected change in attitude
among the country's leadership, Wixman admits "No
Photo by Dave Kao
Joe Fiszman says the Soviets next leader will have
the backing of the military
Soviet leader, when he comes into power, begins
with brilliant new ideas
No matter who comes into power, he must work
within the party structure," he says.
Wixman says the new leader will be confronted
with an "ailing, ailing economy and acute food
shortages "
Fiszman agrees that Brezhnev's rule was
marked by failures, "but adds the 18-year leader was
"conservative enough " He says relations between
the United States and the Soviet Union — including
the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks — will probably
continue along the same path after the new leader
ship solidifies its position.
He expects the new administration to begin with
"rhetoric that is more militant and bellicose in order
to establish their legitimacy,” much like Reagan had
to portray himself as strongly anti-Communist in the
early days of his presidency.
Both instructors agree Soviet autocracy has
moderated. Wixman says "People in the West ought
to stop thinking of the Soviet Union as a totally
totalitarian system ”
KGB chief to lead
Brezhnev’s funeral
From AuoclaM Pr»*«
MOSCOW — The new Soviet leaders, faced with a
transfer of Kremlin power following the death of Pres
Leonid Brezhnev, on Thursday named former KGB
chief Yuri Andropov to head a committee planning a
state funeral for the man who ruled the Soviet Union for
18 years
They announced that Brezhnev would be buried
Monday beside the Kremlin wall on Red Square and that
a four-day period of national mourning would begin
today
The Communist Party and government, indicating
Brezhnev's foreign policy would be continued, reiterat
ed his policy to ensure detente and disarmament" with
the West, but warned it would deal a "crushing retalia
tory strike" if threatened by attack
Brezhnev, 75, died Wednesday of an apparent
heart attack The announcement was withheld for 26'/2
hours but when it was made, black-trimmed flags
quickly were raised around Moscow Public reaction to
Brezhnev s death was surprisingly subdued
Pres Ronald Reagan, in a condolence letter, called
Brezhnev "one of the world's most important figures for
nearly two decades," and said he looked forward to
working with the new Kremlin leadership "toward an
improved relationship with the Soviet Union
Most Western and East European observers in
Moscow agree that a collective leadership of at least
four men is likely to dominate the Soviet regime in the
initial period after the death of Brezhnev.
But the leading contenders for the two top jobs
Brezhnev held are believed to be Yuri Andropov, 68, the
former head of the KGB, the secret police, and Kon
stantin Chernenko, 71, a longtime Brezhnev aide.
They are thought to be the most likely candidates to
succeed Brezhnev as general secretary of the Com
munist Party, the most powerful position in the Soviet
hierarchy.
Chernenko, veteran Foreign Minister Andrei
Gromyko, 73, and Premier Nikolai Tikhonov, 76, are
considered probable choices for the other top job
Brezhnev held, president of the Soviet Union.
Andropov was named chairman of the high
powered funeral commission, a position from which he
may be able to orchestrate the immediate succession
period.
Chernenko also is on the commission, along with
Tikhonov, Gromyko and two other senior members of
the Politburo, Defense Minister Dmitri Ustinov, 74, and
Moscow party chief Viktor Grishin, 68
Calm prevailed in the Soviet capital Thursday as
authorities projected an image of unity and order. The
official announcement of Brezhnev's death referred
three times to the party's ' collective'' will and guidance
and once to the “unshakable unity of the party '
Some Kremlin watchers expect the party Central
Committee to convene as early as Friday or Saturday to
name a new party chief.
Reagan assures Soviets of U.S. peace goal
WASHINGTON (AP) - Pres Ronald
Reagan assured the Soviet Union
Thursday night that he hopes for a better
superpower relationship "in a danger
ous time" following the death of Pres
Leonid Brezhnev
In a nationally broadcast news
conference, Reagan declared “our goal
is and will remain a search for peace "
The president said he intends to keep
pushing for a treaty to reduce strategic
nuclear weapons But "We should not
delude ourselves, ' he said. ‘‘Peace is a
product of strength, not weakness.”
Reagan indicated that Vice Pres
George Bush probably would head the
U S delegation to Brezhnev’s funeral As
for why he wouldn't do so himself,
Reagan said it was a plain case of
looking at the schedule. It was felt it
would be better for George to head that
delegation.”
Mixing an attitude of conciliation with
one of resolve, the president told the
emerging Soviet leadership that the
United States faces the future with con
fidence. And, he said, "we as a free
people must always be prepared for
change so when it comes we are ready to
meet new opportunities and chal
lenges"
Asked whether he plans any new ini
tiative to lessen tensions, the president
sighed slightly and said "we have been
trying to do that in the area of quiet
diplomacy." But, he said, "it is going to
require actions and not words "
Calling on the Soviet Union for
peaceful moves, Reagan said with a
smile: "It takes two to tango."
On the domestic front, Reagan ack
nowledged there is "under discussion" a
Cabinet proposal to boost gasoline taxes
by five cents per gallon in order to rebuild
the nation’s decaying bridges and high
ways and create jobs in the face of 10.4
percent unemployment. But no decision
has been made, he said.
In an obvious reference to Democratic
calls for a multibillion-dollar public works
program, Reagan declared “We are do
ing those things that we think are proper.
We are not going to go down the dead
end street that just leaves us set for
another recession ”
He hinted that he might trim defense
spending, but said “you’ve got to
remember the great share of the defense
budget is for humanity, for the men and
women of the armed forces” in the form
of higher pay.
Reagan said “we are looking at every
thing" but was determined to close “the
window of vulnerablity.”
At one point, Reagan lectured
Democrats and others who had "fright
ened to death” older Americans by sug
gestions that he would cut Social Secur
ity benefits.
Over five of the next eight years,
Reagan said, taxes for Social Security
will be increased under legislation al
ready on the books. He said he did not
think “there is very much more room” for
higher taxes.
f
Emerald photo
Pres. Ronald Reagan