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About What's happening. (Eugene, OR) 1982-1993 | View Entire Issue (Nov. 21, 1985)
BOOKS Beam Us Out, Scottie! Beam Weapons: The Next Arms Race Written by Jeff Hecht Lately "Star Wars" means not Darth Vader and intergalactic der ring-do, but President Reagan's proposed new defense against nuclear missiles. Reagan himself has never clarified precisely what he means, but Jeff Hecht's Beam Weapons gives the clearest, most objective analysis of the Star Wars defense I've seen. Cofounder of Lasers and Applications maga zine, Hecht explains the exotic new technology of military lasers, particle beams, and x-rays, and translates the "Pentagonese" de scriptions of their use into English. While Hecht argues that Star Wars technology is not nearly ad vanced enough to predict the final product—or even if the final product is possible at all —he sees the apparent front running candi date as a series of "battle satellites" armed with beam weapons. Set in orbit high enough to look into Russia, the satellites would—in theory —"see” any incoming Rus sian missiles and zap them out of the sky with some sort of energy beam, probably a laser. Technically, Star Wars has split scientific experts into warring camps. The Union of Concerned Scientists, mostly academic lib erals, call it impossible. Equally prominent experts, mostly those on the military payroll, are selling Star Wars as a way to "make nuc lear weapons obsolete." The short age of crystal balls being what it is, no one can say which side is correct. The only thing a non-ex pert can be sure of is that Star Wars will appear in the tax bills long before it does in the sky. Hecht presents the Law of Tech nology Marketing as "Any sales projection is an overestimate, and any marketing timetable is over optimistic." Over two billion has already been spent; one "sales pro jection" for Star Wars is $40 billion over ten years. Consider ing the average cost overruns for military high tech runs around 350 percent, Star Wars costs will be more astronomical than the tech nology. The technology is forbidding enough. First, a laser capable of handling at least 5 million watts must be created. No current laser approaches this power. Second, the laser must be “weaponized" — made small, dependable and oper able without busloads of Ph.D.'s hovering over every shot. Fre quently, weaponization takes longer, costs more, and succeeds less often than the original crea tion. Third—here's the hard part — a laser radar (current radars are not accurate enough) must be created with a computer capable of identifying the target, discrim inating genuine targets from "spoof" targets, tracking, and aim ing the laser accurately enough to hit a dime from 3,000 miles. This must be done automatically. Hu mans are not nearly fast enough. Neither are today's computers. Fourth, all this incredibly complex gear must be robust enough, and light enough, to be blasted into space, then reliable enough to work even without maintenance and without realistic testing. And, of course, it must be defended against surprise attack. Obviously, Star Wars, if it can work at all, is many years and many, many billions in the future. Were it to go into battle today, it might well make ballistic missiles obsolete. (Because air, fog, and rain can dissipate energy beams, low flying missiles and bombers would be immune. Some, at least, would be bound to get through.) Since in fact Star Wars will not be around for 10 or 15 years (and that, remember, is only the "sales projection"), there is plenty of time to think of defenses. These range from polishing the missiles to reflect the beams to blinding the battle satellites electronic "eyes" with counter lasers. Of course, there are counter-counter meas ures and counter-counter-counter measures and so on ad infinitum. Judging the future workability of Star Wars technology may be beyond human ability. But, sorry to say, the hype surrounding it as the "ultimate weapon" which will make peace, not war, sounds dis tressingly familiar. Hecht reminds us that technological revolutions often give us less than expected. The supersonic airliner, the "white hope" of the 70's, is the "white elephant" of the- 80's. Oldtimers may remember the atomic-pow ered airplane which cost $1 billion in the pre-inflation 50's, and never flew. (Thank heaven!) Then there is the famous "soviet submarine* effect. The U.S. Navy finds lots of Russian submarines prowling our coasts exactly at the time the Navy budget is being debated in Congress. Anyone attempting even to question an item of military spending will face dire warnings that the Russians are building a bigger one. Hecht could have mentioned the scandal rid den C-5A superplane. During de velopment, it cost more than all Federal aid to education, and promised to make it possible to bring all our overseas soldiers home. Years late, and billions over estimates, the C-5A flies at last, but now we are told we need more soldiers overseas. And then there was the Sergeant York anti aircraft system, its granddaddy, the Skywatch, and dozens of other "ultimate weapons" which only led to weapons even more ul timate, deadly, and expensive. If history teaches anything, it teaches us that, unfortunately, making today's weapons obsolete simply means paying for tomor row's. — Kent Patterson I HAVE WE GOT NEWS I FOR YOU! WEEKDAY EVENINGS SUSAN STAMBURG asesoygso ANDREA deLEON DRIVE TIME IS NEWS TIME ON NOAH ADAMS . vurdukot DON HEIN JAMES GOODSELL I KLCC 89 FM ALL THINGS CONSIDERED Weekdays 4-5 p.m. 6-7:30 p.m. NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO NORTHWEST PASSAGE Local & Regional News Weekdays 5-5:30 p.m. MONITORADIO World News from the Christian Science Monitor Weekdays 5:30-6 p.m. vo% STAY TUNED FOR MUSIC OF THE EIGHTIES Weekly Eye Opener by Larry Deckman (Taken from Felton and Fowler's Best, Worst, and Most Unusual): Louis XI of France commanded the Abbot of Baigne to invent a prepos terous musical instrument to entertain His Majesty's friends. The Abbot good-naturedly agreed to undertake the as signment, and after a few hours at the drawing board, he gathered together a herd of hogs —ranging from nursing piglets to full-fledged swine. Under a velvet tent, he lined them up with the low-voiced porkers on the left, the middle range sows in the middle, and the soprano piglets on the right. Then the Abbot modi fied an organ keyboard, at taching the keys to a complex apparatus terminating in a series of small spikes, one pois ed over the rump of each pig. The courtiers were gathered to gether and the Abbot played his keyboard, causing the spikes to prick the pigs, who .naturally let out a piercing squeal, each in its particular voice range. The tunes were actually recognizable, and the concert was adjudged a success by all. Safe Skiing by Michael Fuchs When heading into the back country this winter season, don't forget to pack along a good dose of common sense. A pleasant outing can turn into a miserable ordeal in a matter of minutes. So like a good Boy Scout, be prepared. Stay alert to changing weather conditions and to your surroundings. Know your limits. In your search for silence and solitude, remember you are distancins yourseit from possible assistance. Winter rescues in the Cascades are difficult at best, and help rarely can arrive within 12 hours of notification. No one is immune to adversity, so be re sponsible for your self. Enter the wilderness with the knowledge that an overnight bivouac is a dis tinct, if slight, possibility. The following are winter recrea tion guidelines suggested by the US Forest Service and the Uni versity of Oregon Outdoor Pro gram. What to Wear To maintain a comfortable body temperature, use the layer ing method. Wear clothes of vary ing warmth rather than one large parka or a single thick sweater. Add layers as your body cools; remove layers as you warm up. Remember, you can lose 30 per cent of your body heat by leaving your head exposed. Avoid hypo thermia: Wear a cap! Essentials for Winter Travel • Wool pants or knickers (no blue jeans or cotton pants) • Heavy wool socks, inner socks, extra wool socks • Wool hat or balaklava • Long underwear (polypropylene works well) • Wool shirt • Wool sweater, fiber pile coat • Warm jacket • Waterproof raingear • Windshirt or shell • Wool or leather gloves, extra • Gaiters • Sunglasses What to Carry: • Trail map and compass • Flashlight and batteries • Matches, candle, firestarter • Emergency food supply • Ground insulation (ensolite pad to sit on) • First aid kit • Sunscreen • Whistle • Signal mirror • Waterbottle • Watch • Emergency shelter • Nylon rope • Ski repair kit (basket, screw driver, binding parts, screws, roll of tape, ski tip) Before You Go Check weather conditions: Na tional Weather Service, 689-1321. Let friends know of you plans. Mark your route on a map for them and indicate when you plan to return and make sure you notify them when you get back. If You Are Lost or Injured Stay calm-decide on a course of action. Trust your compass. Backtrack, if possible. If not, send two people for help. Don't aban don your skis. Build a fire and shelter (a snow cave is deal). Stay out of the wind. Keep an ensolite pad or tree branches and your skis between you and the snow. Mark your camp so it is visible from the air. Distress signals: three smokes, three shouts, three whistle blasts or three of anything that will at tract attention. Do not travel at night. Lake Ice Do not venture onto the in viting expanse of a frozen lake. Thick snow can blanket and in sulate a lake, keeping the ice from developing a thick crust. Do not try to determine if the ice is safe. Assume that it is not. Avalanche Again, be aware of your sur roundings. A slope need not be steep for an avalanche to occur. Many avalanches happen on slopes of less than 30 degrees, and relatively small avalanches kill 42 percent of their unwary victims. The best protection against get ting caught in an avalanche is to avoid areas where they might oc cur. Narrow clearings running down slopes and wide open steep slopes are likely avalanche paths. To get around these areas, stick to higher ground or the windy side of the ridgetop, away from cornices. If this is not practical, travel in the valley, away from the bottom of the slopes. Take the time to plan your route carefully. A Few Last Words It is essential that you make thorough preparation and take precaution on every outing to the backcountry. A healthy respect for yourself and for Mother Earth will ensure peace of mind for you and safety tor your party. These organizations offer free low-cost instruction on an aspects of winter backcountry travel. Check them out. • U of O Outdoor Program, 686-4365 • Eugene Parks and Recreation Department, 687-5333 In the event of any outdoor emergency, contact: Lane County Sheriff's Office, 687-4160. Sno Park Permits Under state legislation, Sno Park permits are required in desig nated winter recreation parking locations throughout Oregon. Permits are available at any Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles office. Trail Etiquette • Avoid snowshoeing or walking on cross-country tracks. • When taking a break, step out of the ski track to avoid damage to the track. • When skiing in a track, give the downhill skier the right of way. • When being overtaken by another skier, step out of the track and let him or her pass. • Leave pets at home. BedgBredkfast Imall family style inn with cheerful rooms 9 hearty breakfast 216 Maple Street • Florence, Oregon 97439 Telephone (503) 997-8000
