Wednesday, July 15, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
90s and almost all have had
underlying problems.
<We know that the pos-
sibility of (younger patients)
getting serious illness is far
lower,= Dr. Pfister said.
However, Dr. Pfister offers
two cautions: Young people
can carry the virus to older,
more vulnerable people,
which could increase mortal-
ity. And mortality is a lag-
ging indicator in a disease
that often manifests its most
deadly effects many days
after contagion.
<This is a smoldering dis-
ease,= Dr. Pfister said.
Daily death tolls appear to
be ticking upward in recent
days. As of Friday, Dr. Pfister
noted, <mortality has gone up
every day for the last three
days.=
Severity of COVID-19
Death is not the only
severe impact of COVID-19.
Recovery can be long and
arduous for severe cases, and
the disease can have lasting or
possibly permanent effects.
It9s important to note that
the vast majority of COVID-
19 cases are not severe.
<Eighty percent of people
who get it are either asymp-
tomatic (they show no symp-
toms and may not notice any)
or mildly symptomatic,= Dr.
Pfister said.
But those who do get
severe cases can really suffer.
<By far the biggest prob-
lem is respiratory failure,= Dr.
Pfister said. <That respiratory
failure shows up kind of late.=
A COVID patient can be
sick 4 sometimes mildly
sick 4 for several days, then
suddenly develop acute and
dangerous respiratory com-
plications. The worst case is
development of acute respi-
ratory distress syndrome
(ARDS), where fluid fills
air sacks in the lungs and
deprives the bloodstream of
sufficient oxygen.
Heart tissue damage
through close contact with an
infected person 4 who may
not be showing symptoms.
<Community transmission
of this virus transmits through
pretty small droplets,= Dr.
Pfister said. <It looks like
the predominant method of
spread is people talking, peo-
ple coughing on each other.=
Masks won9t prevent the
spread of the disease 4 but
they can help limit the radius
in which the droplets that
carry the virus are exhaled.
As an illustration, Dr. Pfister
said, <Try to blow out a can-
dle with a mask on.=
In combination with phys-
ical distancing and thorough
and frequent hand-washing,
mask-wearing as <a pragmatic
tool= can diminish the com-
munity spread of COVID-19.
It requires widespread
use for masks to be effective.
Wearing a mask protects oth-
ers; their wearing a mask pro-
tects you.
<It9s a team sport,= Dr.
Pfister cautioned.
The doctor noted that the
incremental effects of wide-
spread precautions add up in
a significant way.
<Just diminishing some-
thing like this, in aggregate&
can have a massive benefit,=
he said.
The road forward
Dr. Pfister noted that St.
Charles Health Systems data
modeling team has thus far
been <spot on= in their work.
Built on a complex model that
accounts for a wide range of
factors, including detection
rates and numbers of tests
administered, modeling indi-
cates the local area is going to
be dealing with a COVID-19
surge for a while.
<It predicts now that our
peak is going to be in the first
week of August,= Dr. Pfister
said.
The doctor urges any-
one who has a travel history
or who has been exposed to
someone with the coronavi-
rus be tested. Anyone exhib-
iting the classic symptoms of
fever, aches, persistent cough
should be tested immediately
<so they can really stay home
and not spread the disease.=
800,000
U.S. deaths projected from COVID-19
before herd immunity is achieved
(assuming a mortality rate of 0.3%)
700,000
600,000
500,000
U.S. leading causes
of death 2017
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
If 70% of population is infected
Continued from page 8
similar to heart attack has
also been seen in COVID-19
patients.
<It looks like you can
recover from it, but it9s scary,
man,= Dr. Pfister said.
Clotting has been a prob-
lem, and has been seen in
younger patients.
<We9re seeing that more
than we do with most respira-
tory viruses,= Dr. Pfister said.
<We also see that particular
side-effect with people under
50 with no health conditions.=
Dr. Pfister noted that it is
now part of the regular treat-
ment protocol to screen for
clotting and treat it with blood
thinners.
The doctor acknowledged
some of the recent concerns
raised about lasting neuro-
logic effects from COVID-
19. He said it is hard to parse
out what is an effect of the
disease itself, and what is the
result of being under inten-
sive treatment.
<It9s very hard on you,= he
said of being in the ICU.
Some COVID-19 patients
are in for a long time, and that
has always produced unpleas-
ant mental side-effects.
<We sometimes refer to it
as ICU delirium,= he said.
Masking up
Dr. Pfister supports the
wearing of face coverings
as an important tool in com-
batting the rapid spread of
COVID-19.
<It9s a big part of getting
back to normal,= he said.
He acknowledged that the
messaging from health offi-
cials regarding the wearing of
masks has changed, and that
that has created doubt and
confusion for some.
<As we9ve learned more
about this virus, our recom-
mendations have changed
4 and I think that9s uncom-
fortable for some people,= he
said.
Dr. Pfister noted that con-
stant reevaluation and reas-
sessment are part of the scien-
tific process.
<Science is a method; it9s
not a basket of facts,= he said.
As of now, it seems evi-
dent that the main method of
transmission for COVID-19 is
If 50% of population is infected
COVID-19: Doctors urge
consistent masking,
distancing
U.S. Deaths to Date COVID-19
24
0
ts
ry
er
ke
se
r’s
sea Canc cciden pirato Stro heime
i
D
A Res
rt
Alz
ic
Hea
n
o
Chr
He notes that the Red
Cross has <a pretty well-val-
idated test= that can deter-
mine if you have antibodies
that would indicate that you
have already had the coro-
navirus. He also says that
it is very doubtful that any-
body had the illness before
March, though many people
had respiratory illnesses.
The doctor sees a sig-
nificant problem with some
people9s encouragement to
seek <herd immunity= as
quickly as possible. With no
vaccine available now, herd
immunity would require at
least 160 million people to
get COVID-19.
<If 160 million people
get this with a 0.3 percent
INFOGRAPHIC BY LISA MAY
mortality rate, that9s still
(almost) 500,000 people
(dying),= Dr. Pfister said. <I
just can9t sign off on that.=
The doctor acknowl-
edged that coronaviruses
can be notoriously difficult
to vaccinate for 4 but in this
case accelerated efforts are
showing promise. He said
he is <cautiously optimis-
tic that we9re going to get a
vaccine.=
Until one is developed,
mask wearing, physical dis-
tancing and restrictions on
the size of gatherings will
likely need to stay in place.
<Our best road forward,=
Dr. Pfister said, <is to slow
the roll of this disease & till
we get a vaccine.=
U.S. population = 331,002,651
50% of U.S. population is the
minimum infection rate to reach
herd immunity = 165,501,326
U.S. deaths projected from
COVID-19 before herd immunity is
achieved, assuming a
mortality rate of 0.3% = 496,504
INFOGRAPHIC BY LISA MAY
Sisters doctor encourages precautions
By Jim Cornelius
Editor in Chief
Dr. Joe Bachtold of St.
Charles Family Care Clinic
in Sisters hasn9t seen any
confirmed COVID-19 cases
in Sisters 4 and he hopes it
stays that way.
Sisters (97759 zip code)
recently recorded its first
confirmed cases after months
of holding at zero. Dr.
Bachtold has been concerned
that those numbers might
grow along with those in the
rest of Deschutes County and
across Oregon and the nation.
That concern focused largely
on what he described as <this
large influx of tourists that
were coming in and they
were not heeding mask-wear-
ing and social distancing.=
Dr. Bachtold told The
Nugget that, <much of my
concern has been allevi-
ated by the newest govern-
ment mandate from the state
regarding mask wearing.=
Effective July 1, Governor
Kate Brown mandated the
wearing of face coverings in
indoor public spaces.
<My advice to the com-
munity,= Dr. Bachtold said,
<is that we9re all in this
together.=
The doctor said that the
mission of the community is
to get through the pandemic
as quickly and as painlessly
as possible 4 and that
requires ongoing adherence
to safety protocols.
<When you9re standing
outside the bakery, you need
to be six feet apart,= he said.
<Regardless of where we are,
we need to be six feet apart
and wearing masks.=
Dr. Bachtold said he can9t
be sure if he encountered
COVID-19 patients in Sisters
before the accuracy and
availability of testing made it
possible to confirm cases.
<It9s certainly possible,
but we don9t know,= he said.
<Until we get some kind of
antibody test, it9s going to be
hard to know the prevalence
of this thing.=
Campers will explore storytelling and self-expression
through art, creative writing, and music.
LIMITED TO 20 STUDENTS (2 GROUPS OF 10)
Five creative days of making music together: writing, jamming,
and listening, on a journey to ignite the inner musician within.
LIMITED TO 10 STUDENTS
• COVID-19 guidelines strictly followed
• Camps open to ages 10-14, all ability levels
• Need-based scholarships available through
FAN
• Tuition is $225/wk. including all materials
($275 with lunch & snacks included)
• Camps run from 9-4 daily
Camps held outdoors at Sisters Art Works Building • 204 W. Adams Ave.
For more information, visit SistersFolkFestival.org