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About The nugget. (Sisters, Or.) 1994-current | View Entire Issue (July 15, 2020)
Wednesday, July 15, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon 90s and almost all have had underlying problems. <We know that the pos- sibility of (younger patients) getting serious illness is far lower,= Dr. Pfister said. However, Dr. Pfister offers two cautions: Young people can carry the virus to older, more vulnerable people, which could increase mortal- ity. And mortality is a lag- ging indicator in a disease that often manifests its most deadly effects many days after contagion. <This is a smoldering dis- ease,= Dr. Pfister said. Daily death tolls appear to be ticking upward in recent days. As of Friday, Dr. Pfister noted, <mortality has gone up every day for the last three days.= Severity of COVID-19 Death is not the only severe impact of COVID-19. Recovery can be long and arduous for severe cases, and the disease can have lasting or possibly permanent effects. It9s important to note that the vast majority of COVID- 19 cases are not severe. <Eighty percent of people who get it are either asymp- tomatic (they show no symp- toms and may not notice any) or mildly symptomatic,= Dr. Pfister said. But those who do get severe cases can really suffer. <By far the biggest prob- lem is respiratory failure,= Dr. Pfister said. <That respiratory failure shows up kind of late.= A COVID patient can be sick 4 sometimes mildly sick 4 for several days, then suddenly develop acute and dangerous respiratory com- plications. The worst case is development of acute respi- ratory distress syndrome (ARDS), where fluid fills air sacks in the lungs and deprives the bloodstream of sufficient oxygen. Heart tissue damage through close contact with an infected person 4 who may not be showing symptoms. <Community transmission of this virus transmits through pretty small droplets,= Dr. Pfister said. <It looks like the predominant method of spread is people talking, peo- ple coughing on each other.= Masks won9t prevent the spread of the disease 4 but they can help limit the radius in which the droplets that carry the virus are exhaled. As an illustration, Dr. Pfister said, <Try to blow out a can- dle with a mask on.= In combination with phys- ical distancing and thorough and frequent hand-washing, mask-wearing as <a pragmatic tool= can diminish the com- munity spread of COVID-19. It requires widespread use for masks to be effective. Wearing a mask protects oth- ers; their wearing a mask pro- tects you. <It9s a team sport,= Dr. Pfister cautioned. The doctor noted that the incremental effects of wide- spread precautions add up in a significant way. <Just diminishing some- thing like this, in aggregate& can have a massive benefit,= he said. The road forward Dr. Pfister noted that St. Charles Health Systems data modeling team has thus far been <spot on= in their work. Built on a complex model that accounts for a wide range of factors, including detection rates and numbers of tests administered, modeling indi- cates the local area is going to be dealing with a COVID-19 surge for a while. <It predicts now that our peak is going to be in the first week of August,= Dr. Pfister said. The doctor urges any- one who has a travel history or who has been exposed to someone with the coronavi- rus be tested. Anyone exhib- iting the classic symptoms of fever, aches, persistent cough should be tested immediately <so they can really stay home and not spread the disease.= 800,000 U.S. deaths projected from COVID-19 before herd immunity is achieved (assuming a mortality rate of 0.3%) 700,000 600,000 500,000 U.S. leading causes of death 2017 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 If 70% of population is infected Continued from page 8 similar to heart attack has also been seen in COVID-19 patients. <It looks like you can recover from it, but it9s scary, man,= Dr. Pfister said. Clotting has been a prob- lem, and has been seen in younger patients. <We9re seeing that more than we do with most respira- tory viruses,= Dr. Pfister said. <We also see that particular side-effect with people under 50 with no health conditions.= Dr. Pfister noted that it is now part of the regular treat- ment protocol to screen for clotting and treat it with blood thinners. The doctor acknowledged some of the recent concerns raised about lasting neuro- logic effects from COVID- 19. He said it is hard to parse out what is an effect of the disease itself, and what is the result of being under inten- sive treatment. <It9s very hard on you,= he said of being in the ICU. Some COVID-19 patients are in for a long time, and that has always produced unpleas- ant mental side-effects. <We sometimes refer to it as ICU delirium,= he said. Masking up Dr. Pfister supports the wearing of face coverings as an important tool in com- batting the rapid spread of COVID-19. <It9s a big part of getting back to normal,= he said. He acknowledged that the messaging from health offi- cials regarding the wearing of masks has changed, and that that has created doubt and confusion for some. <As we9ve learned more about this virus, our recom- mendations have changed 4 and I think that9s uncom- fortable for some people,= he said. Dr. Pfister noted that con- stant reevaluation and reas- sessment are part of the scien- tific process. <Science is a method; it9s not a basket of facts,= he said. As of now, it seems evi- dent that the main method of transmission for COVID-19 is If 50% of population is infected COVID-19: Doctors urge consistent masking, distancing U.S. Deaths to Date COVID-19 24 0 ts ry er ke se r’s sea Canc cciden pirato Stro heime i D A Res rt Alz ic Hea n o Chr He notes that the Red Cross has <a pretty well-val- idated test= that can deter- mine if you have antibodies that would indicate that you have already had the coro- navirus. He also says that it is very doubtful that any- body had the illness before March, though many people had respiratory illnesses. The doctor sees a sig- nificant problem with some people9s encouragement to seek <herd immunity= as quickly as possible. With no vaccine available now, herd immunity would require at least 160 million people to get COVID-19. <If 160 million people get this with a 0.3 percent INFOGRAPHIC BY LISA MAY mortality rate, that9s still (almost) 500,000 people (dying),= Dr. Pfister said. <I just can9t sign off on that.= The doctor acknowl- edged that coronaviruses can be notoriously difficult to vaccinate for 4 but in this case accelerated efforts are showing promise. He said he is <cautiously optimis- tic that we9re going to get a vaccine.= Until one is developed, mask wearing, physical dis- tancing and restrictions on the size of gatherings will likely need to stay in place. <Our best road forward,= Dr. Pfister said, <is to slow the roll of this disease & till we get a vaccine.= U.S. population = 331,002,651 50% of U.S. population is the minimum infection rate to reach herd immunity = 165,501,326 U.S. deaths projected from COVID-19 before herd immunity is achieved, assuming a mortality rate of 0.3% = 496,504 INFOGRAPHIC BY LISA MAY Sisters doctor encourages precautions By Jim Cornelius Editor in Chief Dr. Joe Bachtold of St. Charles Family Care Clinic in Sisters hasn9t seen any confirmed COVID-19 cases in Sisters 4 and he hopes it stays that way. Sisters (97759 zip code) recently recorded its first confirmed cases after months of holding at zero. Dr. Bachtold has been concerned that those numbers might grow along with those in the rest of Deschutes County and across Oregon and the nation. That concern focused largely on what he described as <this large influx of tourists that were coming in and they were not heeding mask-wear- ing and social distancing.= Dr. Bachtold told The Nugget that, <much of my concern has been allevi- ated by the newest govern- ment mandate from the state regarding mask wearing.= Effective July 1, Governor Kate Brown mandated the wearing of face coverings in indoor public spaces. <My advice to the com- munity,= Dr. Bachtold said, <is that we9re all in this together.= The doctor said that the mission of the community is to get through the pandemic as quickly and as painlessly as possible 4 and that requires ongoing adherence to safety protocols. <When you9re standing outside the bakery, you need to be six feet apart,= he said. <Regardless of where we are, we need to be six feet apart and wearing masks.= Dr. Bachtold said he can9t be sure if he encountered COVID-19 patients in Sisters before the accuracy and availability of testing made it possible to confirm cases. <It9s certainly possible, but we don9t know,= he said. <Until we get some kind of antibody test, it9s going to be hard to know the prevalence of this thing.= Campers will explore storytelling and self-expression through art, creative writing, and music. LIMITED TO 20 STUDENTS (2 GROUPS OF 10) Five creative days of making music together: writing, jamming, and listening, on a journey to ignite the inner musician within. LIMITED TO 10 STUDENTS • COVID-19 guidelines strictly followed • Camps open to ages 10-14, all ability levels • Need-based scholarships available through FAN • Tuition is $225/wk. including all materials ($275 with lunch & snacks included) • Camps run from 9-4 daily Camps held outdoors at Sisters Art Works Building • 204 W. Adams Ave. For more information, visit SistersFolkFestival.org