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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
Commentary...
The needs of the many?
By Tom Donahue
Guest Columnist
Despite all the news and
analysis we hear every eve-
ning, there appear to be
many tough questions not
being asked or answered. We
get the mounting death toll
and personal tragedy/heart-
warming coping stories, but
very little in the way of hard
facts.
It9s difficult not to become
depressed, anxious, and hys-
terical, especially when little
else is talked about. But then,
facts and rational unbiased
reporting don9t boost ratings
and low ratings don9t sell
advertising. So let9s look at
some of the facts.
Following are CDC esti-
mates for total cases and
deaths for all types of influ-
enza and for COVID-19
only. Included are the esti-
mates for this flu season, a
projected range for any flu
season, and the worst year
since the CDC began using
their current method of esti-
mating the total flu burden in
the U.S.
Est. Range (2010 - 2019)
Worst Season (2017/18)
This Season (thru 4/4)
T h e C u re v s . T h e
Disease
While it can be argued
that even one death is too
many and that all this social
distancing/business shut-
down is everyone9s moral
duty and not too great a price
to pay for a few months,
what about the 330 million-
plus who are imprisoned in
their own homes or the many
millions who have lost their
jobs? Many of whom can9t
afford to lose their income
for even a few weeks? Or
the long-term economic
impact to companies, indi-
viduals, and the govern-
ment of the U.S. shutdown
and subsequent proposed
bailout?
Isn9t that going to bank-
rupt the economy for a long
time?
There are some practical
questions:
" How does this flu season
compare with others?
" Once you get over the
coronavirus, are you immune
from then on? Unknown, but
one of the research projects
being touted is the use of
antibodies from coronavirus
survivors.
" Are we going to go
through this shutdown every
year when a new pandemic
rears its ugly head? I hope
not.
" Would the population as
a whole be better off letting
the virus rage through, taking
those it will, then leaving the
rest of us healthier and more
immune to a new strain of
virus? A real tough question.
Any politician or busi-
ness owner who had the gall
to suggest that we carry on
as <normal= 4 taking pre-
cautions where we can (like
frequent hand washing, stay-
ing home when we are sick,
building temporary hospital
tents, ramping up the supply
of ventilators and aggressive
testing) 4 and let the virus
take its toll, would be roasted
alive by the media or sued
for every penny they9ve got.
" But don9t we soldier on
already with any number of
our daily activities? Don9t
we get in a car every day,
knowing that there are over
5,000,000 traffic accidents in
Symptomatic Flu Cases
9,300,000 - 45,000,000
39,000,000 - 58,000,000
39,000,000 - 56,000,000
Flu Deaths
12,000 - 61,000
46,000 - 95,000
24,000 - 62,000
COVID-19 Only (thru 4/11) 492,416 (.15 percent Pop.)
the U.S. per year and around
40,000 deaths? Don9t we
get on airplanes, knowing
that they might crash or be
hijacked? Don9t we allow our
kids to play sports knowing
that they may be seriously
injured or killed? We don9t
ban automobiles or air travel
or all children9s sports. The
U.S. has a policy of not bow-
ing to terrorists. Shouldn9t
we have a policy of not bow-
ing to diseases?
" So I ask the final ques-
tion: Do the needs of the
many outweigh the needs of
the few? The many in this
case are those 330 million-
plus individuals who are
severely impacted (some
permanently and irreparably)
by this shutdown and the few
being those hundred thou-
sands (maybe even few mil-
lions) who may be hospital-
ized or die.
Fortunately, this writer
doesn9t have to make that
decision or answer that
question.
One thing is certain. If we
do get out of this with less-
than-expected casualties, the
politicians will be falling all
over each other patting them-
selves on the back for taking
quick and responsive action.
Opinions expressed in this
column are solely those of
the writer and are not neces-
sarily shared by the Editor or
The Nugget Newspaper.
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Some qualifying statements:
• The flu is not a reportable disease in the U.S.
• The U.S. Influenza Surveillance System covers roughly 9 percent of the population. A
mathematical model is used to arrive at the estimates.
• The numbers for COVID-19 alone may be more accurate, and possibly greater, because of
the increased awareness and testing that’s been done recently. They are also more current
than the CDC’s total flu estimate (04/11 vs. 04/04).
• The numbers for 2017/2018 are still preliminary.
If you go by the numbers, COVID-19 is less than 1.5 percent of the total estimated flu burden
so far for this flu season, though a greater portion of the estimated total flu deaths (approx. 30
percent to 77 percent, depending upon which estimate number you pick). The affected
U.S. population percentages are .15 percent (total cases) and .01% percent (deaths).
Moonset...
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