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About The nugget. (Sisters, Or.) 1994-current | View Entire Issue (Sept. 27, 2017)
22 Wednesday, September 27, 2017 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon WINTER: No evidence indicates repeat of last winter Continued from page 1 PHOTO BY GARY MILLER warm and dry winter was expected by most. Instead it was cooler and wetter than normal, except for February 2016. Most of the rest of the U.S. received the El Niño- like conditions that were anticipated, but not here in the West. And we all know what happened last winter. A n e u t r a l E l N i ñ o S o u t h e r n O s c i l l a t i o n (ENSO) signal was in play, causing most forecasters to lean toward an “average” to slightly warmer winter, mainly because of a warm blob of water in the east- ern Pacific last fall. Spurts of extreme weather tend to favor neutral ENSOs — but that’s not what happened. After a warm and dry November, winter roared into Sisters Country early in December and stuck around for quite some time. Temperatures in December 2016 and January 2017 were far below normal, with copi- ous amounts of precipita- tion that translated into an accumulated snow depth in January of about four feet, which was record-setting in some areas. It was still cold in February but slightly drier than usual. Temperatures returned to normal by March, allowing Central Oregon residents to begin digging out. On September 14, 2017, the Climate Prediction Center and the International R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e f o r Climate and Society issued a La Niña watch. They say there is an increasing chance (55-60 percent) of a La Niña to develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18. Over the last month, equatorial sea surface temperatures have been near-to-below aver- age across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is currently at 0.2, making the ENSO signal neutral. It needs to fall below negative 0.5 to usher in a La Niña. And even if La Niña does arrive, it will prob- ably be a weak one. Of course, figuring out what this means for our weather this winter is the tricky part. Wintertime La Niñas gener- ally result in cooler and wet- ter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. For the three-month period December through F e b r u a r y, t h e C l i m a t e Prediction Center is call- ing for an equal chance of temperatures to be below normal, normal, or above normal. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal. To attribute last winter’s extreme weather to a single climatic index is way too simplistic. On the broadest scale, every ONI ENSO sig- nal is based just on the tem- perature of the water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Upon this, however, ride a num- ber of other weather cycles of various durations, such as the Arctic Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It’s much more likely that the kind of weather experi- enced over a season is deter- mined by how these climatic entities interact. There is no evidence to support the notion that our weather this winter will approach the severity of last year’s. Note: Those interested in further exploration may want to read an article that appeared in the October 2016 edition of Scientific American entitled “On the Trail of El Niño” by Emily Becker. Renowned folk singer to play in Central Oregon Martyn Joseph is coming to do a one-and-only Central Oregon show on October 1. Joseph, a frequent Sisters Folk Festival performer and Encore Artist 2011 from Wales, UK, is performing at St. Helens Hall, 231 NW Idaho, across from Trinity Episcopal Church, at the south end of Wall Street in Bend. Doors open at 6 p.m. for potluck — plates, utensils, non-alcoholic beverages included. Music starts at 7 p.m. Joseph will play two sets. Suggested contribution is $20; all proceeds go to the artist. RSVP at www.houseconcerts i n t h eg l en .co m / r s v p .h t m l For more information email Houseconcertsintheglen@ g m a i l . c o m o r c a l l 541-480-8830. Oregon’s top election candidates build war chests By Andrew Selsky Associated Press SALEM (AP) — An elec- tion to choose Oregon’s next governor is more than a year away, but the main Democratic and Republican candidates’ fundraising is already going full steam. Almost $2.4 mil- lion has been raised so far. Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, is shrugging off the $500,000 donation Nike co-founder Phil Knight gave in August to her Republican rival, Knute Buehler, a mem- ber of the Oregon House of Representatives. Brown’s campaign has reported raising $1.25 million since Jan. 1, according to fig- ures compiled by the Oregon Secretary of State and her campaign. The Buehler campaign’s fund-raising dates back to only August 3. The reported contributions already amount to more than $1.1 million. Shop Local Rediscover our hometown and keep our dollars at work in our own community… Sisters has had a tough year. A little extra effort to dine out locally more frequently; a little extra sustained effort to shop local instead of buying online or at the box store, will go a long way toward helping the local business owners.
