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About The nugget. (Sisters, Or.) 1994-current | View Entire Issue (Jan. 11, 2017)
24 Wednesday, January 11, 2017 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon WINTER: Nobody predicted the scope of storms Continued from page 1 5 when two inches of snow fell overnight. Four days later the snow depth mea- sured six inches as modi- fied arctic air from northern British Columbia filtered into the region. A reinforc- ing shot of arctic air arrived on December 13 just ahead of a moist low-pressure system that took dead aim on Central Oregon. By December 15 many of the town’s citizens awoke to approximately two feet of snow. Temperatures moderated slightly during the final four days of 2016, but beginning on January 3, 2017, an addi- tional 15 inches of snow fell on Sisters over a two-day period. This was followed by the coldest temperatures of the season so far when a potent arctic air mass moved in from north of the Yukon. The official low temperature in Sisters on the morning of PHOTO BY JIM CORNELIUS Yeah, not yet. January 6 was -20 degrees Fahrenheit. Some thermom- eters measured well below that. At this point, a fair ques- tion to ask is whether any of this was foretold by weather experts last fall. Let’s take a look back to search for clues: In October many meteo- rologists and climatologists were trying to figure out what the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was going to look like after registering one of the stron- gest El Niños in 65 years during the previous winter. Though El Niño was weaken- ing, many scientists believed that autumn would bask in its afterglow. So the call was for warmer-than-normal tem- peratures for the three-month period October through December. Early last fall the ENSO was predicted to fade to neutral through the win- ter, but by late October and early November the signal was declining faster than expected. As a result, a revised forecast was issued to expect a weak La Niña to develop this winter. Now let’s take a look at what actually happened: October came in only one degree cooler than average, while the rainfall was almost an inch above normal. But November was a scorcher and dry as a bone. The tempera- ture averaged five degrees above normal and only 0.29 inches of precipitation was recorded, making it the dri- est November in more than 58 years. Maybe effects of El Niño would hang around awhile… But December was a game-changer. No one should be surprised to learn that the month was downright cold, as temperatures aver- aged nine degrees below nor- mal. Precipitation registered slightly above normal but produced a lot of relatively dry snow. For the period October through December, temperatures averaged five degrees below normal. This aspect of the forecast has to be considered a bust. And what of the ENSO signal? The current Oceanic Niño Index, which only looks at sea-surface temperatures, has a value of -0.8 putting it the weak La Niña category. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) combines ocean temperature with five other atmospheric measurements. That number is -0.21, imply- ing that the ENSO is in a neutral state. Climate scien- tists seem to have gotten this one right. What does all this mean for us? The real answer is nobody is sure. Neutral ENSOs, and to some extent PHOTO BY JIM CORNELIUS Chillin’ in Sisters... weak La Niñas, do tend to introduce a bit more uncer- tainty to seasonal forecast- ing. But this signal of the ENSO and the occurrence of extreme weather events seem to enjoy a higher degree of correlation than do other val- ues of ENSO. Does this mean we are likely to endure more extreme weather this winter? Again, nobody knows. So buckle up, sit back and enjoy the ride. The outlook for January, issued by the Climate Prediction Center on December 31, is calling for temperatures to be much below normal with precipita- tion amounts slightly above average. Please Connect Your Ray’s All Access Rewards Program Account to Furry Friends Foundation It’s FREE and we get 1% back on your purchases. It’s an easy and great way to donate! With your Access Rewards account information in hand (the number is on the back of your card), you can call, email, or visit Ray’s to connect to Furry Friends Foundation. • Call 541-412-0005 • Email AllAccess@ckmarket.com • Visit the Ray’s Customer Service Counter and ask to connect your account number to Furry Friends for the All Access Community Rewards Program. Shop locally, donate locally! Thank you for your support. www.FurryFriendsFoundation.org Sisters Pet Food Bank • Spay/Neuter Sponsorships • Emergency Medical Assistance
