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About The Sunday Oregonian. (Portland, Ore.) 1881-current | View Entire Issue (Nov. 3, 1912)
riTB SUNDAY OREGOXIAy, PORTLAND, NOVEMBER 3, 1912. Results Score of Tilings May Happen That Are Without Precedent, Yet Any One of Which May Result in the Choice of a Chief Execu tive of the United States Effect of Havmrf M 6 TOMN A II w a v w v o II A I I I V II Three Candidates in the Field iMWff- M " 1 1 1 " " i " " -V,'H M,mZ. 'Mifflin 'Jr 1ri Cfcet.&r & &Ze JRresa&ncy' Jf" , x' W f;- T BT WIUJUJ iTHERTOM DD PUT. ''I " v f ?f . f T"HE millions of voters who go to I - - A x - - 1 - Jv? v rt i - i-. y . II I s . 1 f.f'' , It i. - I jk W I the polla next Tuesday and cut ballots for President, are not free to feel as they have always felt, that either the man for whom they vote or the man against whom they vote will be their chief executive. For there are thre strong candidates in the field and one of them has sot to receive a majority of the votes of the Electoral College or there will be confusion without end. This failure to elect will be new In the history of the Nation and the things that might result from it are many and interesting-. Even at best ther are some precedents that may be nroken for never before has the coun try known such a tang-lins; of Presiden tial yarn. Her are a few of the pos sibilities: A college president may be chosen ' President of the United States for the first time in the history of the Nation. The House of Representatives may be called upon to choose a President and may fail. The Senate may then elect a Vice President to become chief executive. The Senate may deadlock and the Secretary of State may become President.- The insurgent Senators may so com promise, with Mr. Taft as to name a man between them and engineer him into the White House. -i r. j art may arrange his own ap pointment as Secretary of State succession as President at the last moment. A President may be chosen by brand new party and to serve more than the eight years prescribed by pre cedent. It may even happen that when the ninety million awake on March 4 next they will still be unaware of the name of the man who will assume the rein of government at noon and guide the official chariot for four more years. To the very hour of noon on that day a deadlock may continue until dissolved. at that moment, by a constitutional provision. Dark Harse la Electoral College. For the fat is in the fire and the devil is to pay in the political game as It is working itself out. There are three Presidential tickets in the field and no one of them can be elected unless it secures a majority of the votes of the Electoral College. The Constitution of the United States, in speaking of the action of this same Electoral Col lege says: "The person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed." Each of the three candidates for Pres ident la credited with a good deal of strength. It would appear that none of them is so strong as to secure more electors than the other two combined. Tet if this does not happen the electoral college will fall to elect unless it does an absolutely unprecedented thing- thing that It is hardly recognized as having the power to do.' The electoral college may ignore Its instructions and choose a dark horse. That possibility might come through s union of Roosevelt and Taft electors, for Instance, between the time of the election and the meeting of the college. Realizing the Impossibility of electing either of these candidates, the support- erg of each might flock to a com pro mise candidate. In this connection It is Interesting to note that there is noth ing In the constitution that would pre vent these electors from voting for an entirely new man. They have long fol lowed the dictates of the election that chose them, but they are not specifi cally bound to do so. They may vote for anybody and "the person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President" With such a crisis as the life or death of a great party at stake, they might feel that they were Justified in going behind precedent and disre garding the expressed wish of the peo ple who elected them. They might hold that their constituents wished them to do this. So. the electors of Roosevelt and Taft might combine to make up a majority of the electoral col lege and defeat a Democratic candidate who had received more votes than either of them Individually. So might such a man as Governor Herbert S. Hadley, of Missouri, be the next Pres ident. A Tie la the House. This action Is very Improbable. The thing that Is more nearly sure of hap pening is that the election will be thrown Into the House of Representa tives. The public does not wholly real. Ize that the electoral college never actually gets together. Each state is allowed an elector for each Represen tative and each Senator. These men are chosen at the Presidential election and later meet in each state and vote upon President and Vlee-Presidejit The result of this vole of the electors of each state is forwarded to Washington, where, on the second Wednesday in February following the election, the whole vote is canvassed by Congress in Joint session. The vote has been known all along, but this is the official count. If no candidate has a majority of all the votes upon this canvass, the elec tion has failed. The amended Consti tution states: 'If no person has such majority, then from the persons having the greatest numbers, not exceeding three, on the list of those voted for, for President, the House of Representatives shall choese immediately, by ballot, the Pres. ident." Now In this election of a President by the House which may be the order of the day of Wednesday, . February 12, next, the present membership will be sitting. The House is strongly Demo cratic, but it will not be able to elect Democrat. Each state has one vote in this election. The state delegations will get together, in caucuses to de- termine whom they will support. Large delegations like that from New York will formally vote along party lines. The delegation from Arizona, consist ing of one man, may call itself to order as it rides downtown on a streetcar, and will assuredly go Democratic. The Nevada delegation of one will have no greater difficulty from a lack of I quorum and is as sure to go Republi can. The big Democratic majority does not, however, control a majority of states. A study of the Congressional delegations shows that there are 22 states that have a Democratic majority in their Congressional delegations and 22 that have a Republican majority. This leaves four states whose delega tions are tied It is necessary that any given candidate should have the vote f 2a states to elect. The alignment of tatee will be as follows: Democratic: Republican: Alabama California Arizona Connecticut Arkansas Delaware Colorado Idaho Florida Illinois Georgia Iowa Indiana Kansas Kentucky Massachusetts Louisiana Michigan Maryland Minnesota Mississippi Montana Missouri Nevada New Jersey New Hampshire New York North Dakota North Carolina Oregon Ohio Pennsylvania Oklahoma South Dakota South Carolina Utab Tennessee. Vermont Texas -Washington Virginia Wisconsin West Virginia Wyoming Tied: Maine New Mexico Nebraska Rhode Island Similar Case Is Cited. . The present House was chosen along strictly partisan lines. Its membership could be depended upon to refuse to the end to vote for a candidate for President who was of the opposite po- ucai pany. xne death of one or two members between now and February may be expected, but three men in three vital states would hare to die and be replaced by three men of the opposite political faith to change the election. It cannot be expected that this will happen. The House is sure to deadlock. The House was called upon to elect a President on one previous occasion, when the Electoral College failed. This was in 1800, while it was still the sys tem to award the candidate receiving the greatest number of votes the Presi. dency and the candidate receiving the next greatest vote the Vice-Presidency. That year Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr ran against John Adams and C. C. Pinckney. On the Jefferson and Burr ticket each candidate received 73 votes, while Adams received 65 and Pinckney 64. Burr, although he had not been a candidate for the Presidency, took ad vantage of this equality of vote with his running mate, Jefferson, and al lowed the election to be called a tie and his friends to press his claim be fore the House. He came near being elected. There were then 16 states. with nine necessary to elect. Jeffer son had eight and Burr had six states and two were blank because of a tie in their delegations. The deadlock lasted seven days, when the House broke to Jefferson. The Constitution gives the House on til Marcb 4 to select a President. If it has not succeeded by that time it de volves upon the Senate to elect a Vice- President, who becomes President at noon, because other means of filling that high post - have failed. In this connection the Constitution says: If the House , of Representatives shall not choose a President . . . be fore the Fourth day of March next fol lowing, then the Vice-President shall be President. . . . From the two high est numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose a Vice-President." Under these conditions it Is reason able to suppose that the Senate, in case of this deadlock, will get up early on the morning ox March 4 next and set about the task In hand. Senate Hay Fall To Elect. In the Senate the proceedure is differ ent. Each man votes for his preference as between the two men who have been candidates for Vice-President and who have received the highest vote. The Republicans have a very comfortable majority in the Senate. If the two can didates receiving the his-bp" ' - the electoral college v . t tfi U-i "i." lillllPi party, and Vice-President James S. Sherman, on the Republican ticket, there would, however, be an inevitable deadlock. That balance of power of in surgent Senators would refuse to vote for Jim Sherman. Tet they would never vote tor a Democrat and turn over the machinery of the Government of the opposite party. If Governor Johnson, the third party Vice-Presidential can didate, were one of the two receiving the highest electoral vote, there would be Just as determined opposition to him on the part of the conservative wing in the Senate. There would seem to be no possibility under which a Vice- President could be chosen and noon of March 4 would arrive while an expect ant nation stood on tiptoe. Chance of Secretary of State. The Cabinet officers of one Adminis tration hold over until the Cabinet of the incoming Administration is made up and ready to assume responsibility for running the departments. Because of this. Philander Chase Knox would be Secretary of State upon the arrival of the moment of the ending of the term "" Secretary of line of suc- Thomas R. ilarsiiaU, o 1&8 Jje-wucraus i cessivn jveifi iJig cXXicea ot fresiUent and Vice-President left vacant He would be sworn in bv the Chief Jus tlce at noon and would be the central figure In the inauguration festivities that followed. , This possible succession of the Sec retary of State would leave a very pretty ground for compromise as be tween the President and the Insurg ent members Cf the Senate. These Senators, holding the balance of power. might pick up a number of men, rea sonably acceptable to the regular branch of the party, and stipulate their willingness that any of these should become chief executive. The President "might appoint his favorite of these compromise candidates as Secretary of State. The Insurgent Sen ators would maintain the deadlock un til noon on the Fourth of March, and automatically the new Secretary of State would become President. This possibility gives a long chance for the biggest office in the world to a great number of men, prominent among whom might be mentioned Associate Justice-' Hughes or Senator Cummlngs. There Is Just one more chance for the Democrats and that party would seem entitled to it for the odds are against its candidates if the choice ever gets into Congress. II the Secxe-, tary of State should happen to meet any calamity such as falling dead of overjoy because of a Senate deadlock, the Secretary of the Treasury would be the next man in succession, and that official, Mr. McVeagh, Is a Dem ocrat. Mortality is not so great among cabinet officers that It would seem necessary to look further than this. There would be no Vice-President for four years, however, and when the new President appointed his Secretary of State and Treasury, he would be ap pointing a President of the United States in case of his death during a four-years term. It is coming to be realized that all these unprecedented things may come to pass within the next few months. The logical thing . is that this whole series of circumstances should follow themselves through the stress of polit ical activity that the coming Winter is to know. The one chance of the Democrats after Tuesday is to break the deadlock in the House, but no Republican can be expected to turn the whole nation machinery over to the opposite party. For the transac tion of ordinary business the - Demo crats have a big majority in the House. It is quietly whispered about that these Democrats will forestall a pos sible deadlock by using strong-arm methods of unseating certain Republi cans who hold strategical positions. Impeachment proceedings might be brought against those memBers on trumped up charges and railroaded through Congress- This would mean resort to desperate methods but there seems to be no other alternative available. Another Possible Conp. The President also has an extreme measure available in case of a failure of either House or Senate to elect. Of course he can turn out Secretary Knox and appoint whomever he chooses as Secretary of State. But he could go even further. Toward noon of the fourth of March, when it becomes evi dent that the Secretary of State is to become President, Mr. Taft might re sign, Vice-President Sherman Immedi ately succeeding him. Then President Sherman might appoint Mr. Taft Sec retary of State, and at noon that portly gentleman would become President again. There are a number of less Irregu lar things than these that might still be unprecedented. There never has been in the White House, for instance, a college president cr a man of the col- lege-presldent type. The manner J in which a man of this sort would tiold down the biggest Job on earth lo a subject of much conjecture. There has never been a President of the United States who has brought to the White House three young lady daughters, and this coming would be of much in terest to Washington society and a precedent-breaker. There has never been a President elected on the National Progressive ticket, nor has there ever been an In dividual chosen for this office who had previously served more than eight years. Yet these things are among the possibilities as a result of Tues day's vote. (Copyright. 1911.) A Question of Empire (CONTINUED FROM PAGE 4.) wishes to see me. You have Bondoukou all to yourself. I pull down my flag." Schwencker's voice sounded like a sob. "But Bondoukou vas French!" he cried. Durand's Jaw dropped in amazement. So that was why! Bondoukou was French. This dirty, God-forsaken clear ing In the Jungle, with its fever and kraw-kraw, its heat and dust. Its flies and beetles and ants, was French. And for this Schwencker had wanted to kill himself. Wasn't it ridiculous? Waan"t it German T And then he remembered the geraniums, his own Joy at returning to Paris, the. old schoolboy tales he had read of Alsace-Lorraine. He began to understand. "Listen, Schwenker," be said softly as he took the German's revolver. "It Isn't definitely French. . They didn't know. Leave it to me. When they know" he broke Schwencker's re volver and shook the cartridges from It "When they know " He paused, at a loss for words, then burst out: "Ah, what do they matter? It's what you're doing that counts. Ifs your sacre civ ilization, not mine. Think of your neighbors. Me they hate. You they love. Bondoukou is German." (Copyright, The Frank A. Munsey Co,) Japan's Old Folks. In view of the fact that the authori ties intend to devote part of the Em peror's gift of money to the aged. In vestigations have been made as to the number of old people above the age of 70. It is stated that the number of these and of those who will attain their 70th year by November 9 reaches a large figure and that in Toklo City alone the number of eltgibles exceeds 70,000. Investigation is now on foot with a view to classifying these people Into two groups, those supported by their families and those without the help of relatives, so as to ascertain the number of aged folk who need assist ance. Japan Adviser.