Image provided by: University of Oregon Libraries; Eugene, OR
About The nugget. (Sisters, Or.) 1994-current | View Entire Issue (Dec. 23, 2015)
28 Wednesday,December23,2015The Nugget Newspaper,Sisters,Oregon EL NIñO: We’vegotten moreprecipitation thanexpected Continued from page 3 CaliforniatotheDeepSouth, and milder weather in the Midwest and New England. Thisisparticularlytruewhen ElNiñoisstrong. There are a variety of indices used to determine the phase and strength of the ENSO.Two of the most widelyusedaretheOceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). The ONI is based on sea-surface temperature departuresfromaverageinthe centraltropicalPacificOcean, whiletheMEIcombinessea- surfacetemperatureswithfive atmosphericmeasurements. Klaus Wolter of the N a t i o n a l O c e a n i c a n d AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA)believestheMEIis betterformonitoringENSO thanothermethods. “In brief, the MEI inte- gratesmoreinformationthan other indices, it reflects the natureofthecoupledocean- atmosphere system better — and it is less vulnerable tooccasionaldataglitchesin the monthly update cycles,” explainsWolter. There have been two super-El Niños since 1950. They occurred during the wintersof1982-83and1997- 98.TheONIrankedthe1997- 98 event the stronger of the twoat2.3,whilethe1982-83 ElNiñocameinat2.1.Both eventswereofequalstrength ontheMEIscalewithavalue 625 N. Arrowleaf Trail, Sisters of3.0.Afewclimateexperts were entertaining the possi- bilitythatthecurrentElNiño mayeventuallyequal,oreven exceed,thestrengthofthese monsters. That was the forecast approximately two months ago, but where do we stand now? Is the winter weather unfoldingasexpected? Well, not exactly. It appears that the typical El Niño weather pattern hasn’t kickedinyet. The biggest surprise so far has been the heavy pre- cipitationinWashingtonand Oregonthathascausedflood- ing and landslides in some areas. “Ofalltheyearsinwhich there was a strong El Niño presentinthetropicalPacific Ocean,thisisthewetteststart to any of those years that we’veobservedinthePacific Northwest, both in Portland and Seattle,” said Daniel Swain,aclimatescientistat StanfordUniversity. These storms are also impacting Central Oregon. InSisters,temperatureswere below normal in November and precipitation registered morethanathirdofaninch wetterthanaverage. During the first 18 days of December, the anoma- lies have been even greater. Temperatures are 4 degrees Fahrenheit above average whileprecipitationlevelsare already 1.26 inches above normal,withmorethanathird ofthemonthlefttogo. And, yes, the Central OregonCascadesarefinally getting some much-needed snow. photo by Jim anderson Despite the presence of an el Niño, frequent autumn storms have coated the central oregon Cascades in a blanket of white. According to Marilyn Lohmann, forecaster at the NationalWeatherServicein Pendleton, the snowpack is currently 80 to 100 percent of normal. Lohmann also notedthattotalprecipitation levels in the mountains are 120to130percentofnormal, indicating that a significant amountofrainhasalsofallen there. Therecentunusualwarmth from the Midwest across to theEasternSeaboard,andthe wetter-than-normalconditions in the southern states seem to be more in line with El Niño-likeweather.ButMike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said El Niño isn’t to blame for these current weathertrends.Halpertthinks the heat in the Northeast is duetotheArcticOscillation (AO).WhentheAOisinits positive phase, as it is now, astrongjetstreamkeepsthe coldestairtrappedinthepolar regions. “While it has certainly beenmildacrossthecountry, it’s not really something we wouldattributetoElNiño,” said Halpert. “The AO is probablyplayingabiggerrole thistime.” ForCaliforniansdesperate forwater,Halpertbelievesthe rainswillbegintheresoon. “People are wonder- ing where the rain is. Don’t panic,” Halpert said. “The timewhenwearereallylook- ingfortherainisafterthefirst of the year. We still expect January-to-Marchtobewet- ter than average throughout thewholestate.” For the three-month periodJanuary-March2016, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centerforeseesabove-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwestandbelow-normal precipitation,exceptinsouth- western Oregon where rain- fall amounts should be near average. If the current El Niño doesn’t strengthen from its currentlevel,itwillgointhe books as the third strongest event in 65 years, behind only the 1997-98 and 1982- 83episodes.Itisexpectedto weakenoverthenextmonth ortwo,thenfadetoneutralby latespringorearlysummer. Specializing in Central Oregon Rural Properties K Kathy Hansbrough H Broker, CDPE, GRI, SRE B Principal Broker ABR, CDPE,CIAS, GRI, SRES 541-480-0183 C 541-408-2998 Cell: Offi ce: 541-728-0033 O kjhansbrough@remax.net www.kathyhansbrough.com RE/MAX Key Properties www.sandygoodsell.com Licensed Broker in the State of Oregon 431 NW Franklin Ave. Bend, OR 97701 Licensed Broker in the State of Oregon For Sale By Owner I/I P T 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1,750 sq. ft. | Oversize 2-car garage $349,500 | Call 541-668-5452 All showings by appointment only. Buyer must be qualifi ed or pre-qualifi ed. For more photos go to Craigslistbend.com This ad sponsored by The Nugget Newspaper in support of Deschutes Land Trust.