A4 • Friday, December 21, 2018 | Seaside Signal | SeasideSignal.com
New study explores impacts of coastal erosion, increased storms
By Brenna Visser
Seaside Signal
Coastal erosion and
more intense winter storms
may require policymak-
ers to take another look at
how they plan for future
development.
A new Oregon State Uni-
versity study, based in Til-
lamook County, examined
how beach access and prop-
erty would be impacted by
sea level rise and coastal
erosion if planning policies
stayed the same.
Researchers then looked
at the costs, impacts and
implications if the region
changed policies, such as
providing incentives to
move houses out of vul-
nerable areas or loosening
regulation on breakwater
infrastructure.
One approach may pro-
tect more homes from dan-
ger, but comes with a hefty
price tag. Another may be
the best at preventing ero-
sion, but impacts beach
access. The point of the
study is not to tell lawmak-
ers what to do, said Patrick
Corcoran, a coastal hazards
specialist with Oregon State
University’s Sea Grant pro-
gram and co-author of the
paper, but to give informed
direction about the conse-
quences of their choices.
“We can’t control cli-
mate change, at least not
directly,” Corcoran said.
“The one thing we can con-
trol is management. We
need to align our behav-
ior with what we see
happening.”
Different approaches
Roughly a quarter of Til-
lamook County’s popula-
tion lives within a half mile
from the Pacifi c Ocean,
with 40 percent of the
coastline eroding at rates of
more than 3 feet a year.
According to the study,
coastal hazards are grow-
ing, and can be attributed
to three main drivers: sea
level rise, increases in wave
heights from winter storms
and the frequency of El
Nino weather patterns.
Researchers
designed
fi ve different policy scenar-
ios to address what people
in Tillamook County con-
sider priorities: the ability
to use the beach and prop-
erty protection.
They predicted what
would happen if policies
stayed the same, as well as
what would happen with
certain changes, such as
constructing new buildings
on lots that allowed pro-
tective measures like rip-
rap, removing buildings
repetitively impacted by
coastal hazards and having
no development restrictions
at all through 99 different
climate scenarios over the
course of 30 to 90 years.
Overall, the study shows
that if policies in Tillamook
County don’t change, more
than 2,000 buildings will
remain in the hazard zone,
and that damages associ-
ated with coastal fl ood-
ing will cost more than
$150 million over the next
century.
Different
approaches
solved different problems.
Policies that include “stra-
tegic retreat” — intention-
ally moving buildings out
of a dangerous area —
would see up to 1,800 build-
ings relocated and preserve
the most beach access. But
it comes at a price: moving
buildings could cost $300
million after accounting
for the money it would take
to renourish the beach and
create new environmental
easements.
The
“laissez-faire”
approach, where restric-
tions about where to build
and whether riprap is
allowed are stripped, actu-
ally resulted in almost no
buildings being impacted
by erosion in comparison
to the status quo. Predic-
tions show there would be
a spike in homeowners for-
tifying properties that they
currently cannot do under
state law. Current planning
policies would see about 20
buildings a year be affected
by erosion by 2100.
But it, too, was costly,
incurring about $2.5 mil-
Colin Murphey/The Daily Astorian
People walk near the surf at Cannon Beach.
lion a year regionally for
costs associated with for-
tifying coastal properties.
The policy also massively
impacts beach accessibil-
ity by interfering with sand
production, which would
also increase total water
levels and lead to more
fl ooding hazards. Cur-
rently, about 80 percent of
the coastline is walkable. In
the worst climate scenario,
that would drop to about 40
percent by 2100 under this
approach.
Though
the
study
doesn’t offer a defi nitive
solution, Corcoran said he
hopes the information can
be used to make long-term
decisions.
“We’re so used to shoot-
ing down ideas,” he said. “I
fi nd it useful for electeds
and others to play through
alternative policies through
the end.”
Local impact
While the study focused
on challenges unique to Til-
lamook County, the broader
lesson of considering devel-
opment hazards is some-
thing that can be applied
across the North Coast.
Studies like this could be
a model for cities to rethink
the development process
in the tsunami inundation
zone.
“(Planning is) proj-
ect driven and opportu-
nity driven,” Corcoran
said. “There’s no sense of
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altering development for
hazards”
Such policies could force
planners to “tick some kind
of box” about whether vul-
nerable populations should
be put in areas known to be
historically inundated after
a tsunami, Corcoran said.
Think of the Shoot-
ing Stars Child Develop-
ment Center in Astoria as
an example, he said, which
moved into a building the
Oregon State Police left in
Uniontown because of tsu-
nami danger. It falls into
the 3 percent of land con-
sidered to be at most risk
for a tsunami in Astoria,
and has been inundated 17
out of the last 19 major his-
torical events.
“If that kind of think-
ing went through the Plan-
ning Commission as a fac-
tor, there might have been
an incentive to fi nd another
location,” he said.
No decision will be per-
fect, but it should at least be
informed.
“Can we, through stra-
tegic decision, at least
make the project less bad?”
Corcoran said.
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I still have some chapters left to write,
things I want to do yet. Feel free to
take a vacation. I might do that, too.
Grateful to be here,
Ann
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