STATE
'Ms'
midc mom
roe
GEM iiimi
Farm Bank
Activities
Recognized
Gordon W. Barrie, assistant
manaeer of the Klamath Falls
Branch. United States National
Bank, and County Key Banker of
the Oregon Bankers Association
for Klamath County, has just
been informed that the outstand
ing service which Oregon banks
have given the state's farmers,
both through regular banking
service and through special activ-
lties in the agricultural field, has
received special recognition from
the American Bankers Associa
tion.
This agricultural award is pre
sented each year to the state
bankers associations of those
stales whose banks have been
of notable service to agriculture
during the preceding year. This is
the 31st consecutive year that
Oregon's banks have received the
award, indicating the continuous
nature of the bank program in
agriculture. Oregon is the only
slate in the nation to qualify for
this award for so many consecu
tive years.
The awards are presented to
recognize the wide range of proj
ects which bankers carry on as
a means of bringing greater un
derstanding and cooperation be
tween the farm and financial
communities. Included are such
activities as cooperation with the
extension service and other offi
cials of the state agricultural col
lege sponsoring educational pro
grams on farm financial matters,
support qf farm youth groups
such as Future Farmers of Amer
ica and 4-H clubs, promotion of
soil conservation and land man
agement, and sponsorship of
banker-farmer meetings to dis
cuss mutual problems.
This recognition is based not
only on Oregon banks' leadership
in serving the credit needs of ag
riculture, but also because of
their activities in behalf of edu
cational work in the wise use of
credit; in promoting improved
farm practices: and cooperating
with farm, livestock, and com
modity organizations.
The work is planned and di
rected by the Agriculture and
Forestry Committee of the Ore
gon Bankers Association with the
assistance of the County Key
Bankers. It is Die work of these
groups in Oregon which has
brought this award to the slate's
banks.
In addition to numerous awards,
prizes, and contributions made by
individual Oregon banks, the Ore
gon Bankers Association appropri
ated, for the fiscal year ending
June 30, 1961, $4,500 to tlie 4-H
Club and $2,865 to the Future
Farmers of America. The asso
ciation is pleased to thus mani
fest in this tangible way its sup
port of these two outstanding ag
ricultural youth organizations.
Public Lands
Bids Asked
Scaled bids for the leasing of
S6 tracts of public lands in the
Southern portion of Lease Area
"G" (Southwest Sump) for agri
cultural and grazing purposes will
be received from the general
public until 10 a.m. January 24,
1961, at the Bureau of Reclama
tion office in Klamath Falls.
Information on bidding proced
ure and leasing conditions may
be obtained from the bureau's of
fice at the corner of Washburn
Way and Joe Wright Road, or
from bulletins posted at all post
offices in the Klamath Basin area.
Increase In Traffic Volume
Seen For '61 By GN Chief
By JOHN M. BUDD
President
Great Northern Railway
Considering the very optimistic
predictions for business generally
at the beginning of 1960, results
of Great Northern operations in
the past year were disappointing.
The railway experienced a de
clining physical volume of traffic
since spring, ana one unporiam
result of this condition was an
increase in the unit cost of oper
ation. Great Northern will have a low
er net income than in 1959 a
reflection of less traffic and the
tough cost-price squeeze, al
though the impact of the latter
condition was lessened by tight
control of operating expenses.
We are both optimistic and ap
prehensive about -the future of
transportation. On the favorable
.IH for 1961. we believe the rail-
WayS IH OUr region w' aj'v.J v .ni.,,i.u,,ui, vv,m..ii'va,l-u.--iuii Ml .iir imivtllf 9 IVMUtll
modest Increase in traffic volume.lues to needlessly cost this coun- ized traffic control mileage. Ad
Also heartening is the fact thatltry millions of dollars every ycar.jditional CTC mileage in I960
presidential commission will be-1 Those who think all is well injwas in Minnesota and Montana.
....11 ,.. n
(1947.1949100) CONSUMER PRICES T"j
TJO - SERVICES , . 1
'W? ALL ITEMS
130
"""7""""
110 COMMODITIES
(LESS FOOD)
El I
100 iiiiliimliinilnitiltiiiitiuiiliiinliini
1957
1938
PRICES ARE UP Consumer prices, on the average, were
higher in 1960 than in any other postwar year almost
30 per cent up from 1947-49 period. Services advanced most;
durable commodity prices sloped off slightly from last year.
PRICES PAID, PRICES
300
(1910-1914100)
280
260
240
220
1957 195S 1959 1960
FARMERS' COST GAP The price stretch on the nation's
farmers increased further in i960. Using 1910-14 as index
of 100, prices paid rose to 299; prices received slipped to
nt information is from the Department of Agriculture.
10
1949 '50 '51 '52 '53
HOW Wc SAVED IT M
20- f- (ESTIMATED)-,
10 -X- 7
. .ihYrn 3
INTO THE MATTRESS Personal savings in the U.S.
climbed from 8.5 billion dollars in 1949 to 29.2 billion in the
third quarter of 1960. Dips represent recession periods.
Last quarter, 1960, will probably
Peek At Stock Market
Shows Much Optimism
By HENRY J. BKC11TOLD
UPI Financial Editor
flow ruitrv iui-11 a proics-
sionni pee ai me siock marisci
through a crystal ball reveals
general optimism for the coming
year.
But. while the Wall Street
forecasts look for an upswing in
stock prices in 1961 they do not
expect a runaway market.
Walston and Co. and Spear and
Staff, Inc. look for the Dow Jones
industrial average to reach a high
of close to 700 in 1961, an ad
vance of about 14 per cent from
present levels and about 20 per
cent from the October, I960, lows.
Edmund W. Tabell of Walston
reasoned that the market is too
high on the fundamentals of earn
ings and dividends to expect an
other sharp rise on top of the 300
per cent rise from 11149 to 1959.
gin in early January a
layed study toward revision of ob-j
solete, costly work rules of the
entire railway industry. (Thomas
A. Jerrow, Great Northern's oper-
ations vice president, is a rail-
way member of the 15-man com-
mission, appointed by President orations with its physical plant
Eisenhower.) jand equipment in excellent con-
In addition, the trend toward, dition. the result of the railway's
consolidations indicates the
mination of railway manage-1
ments to, improve the efficiency,
services and financial health ofjeompany acquired approximately!
our industry tlie basis lor the
proposed merger of Great North
crn, Northern Pacilic, the Bur-j
lington and the Spokane, Port -
land & Seattle railways. It is
expected that the consolidation
plan will be submitted to the
interstate Commerce Commis
sion very early in 1961.
On the negative side, the lack rail, placing of 568.000 cubic yardsiwill he available in front of the
of a modern, realistic nationals new ballast and a 260-mile building for 20 aulos.
'lui lfU nn ll-ancnnW-iln,,, i-nnlm.
1960
RECEIVED BY FARMERS
1959
n PRICES PAID
(Incl. Interest, Wages, Taxes)
PRICES RECEIVED
fall. Data: Commerce Dept.
iHc did note, however, that many
individual issues today are under
j
Sidney B. Lurie of Joscphthal
and Co. said the market faces
the same internal price depros
sanls that existed in 1960. in
cluding the absence. of an infla
tionary stampede to equities and
the new competition from senior
securities. 1
Above all, Lurie declared, the
stock buying public has become
a nation of "economic hypochon
driacs." New concepts of valua
tion have come into being, he ex
plained, with everyone wanting
the stocks with a story. No one
wants the stock market's prob
lem children, and the companies
which lack claim tn special
growth are penalized by inatten
tion.
n
'54 '55 '56 '57 '58 '59 '60
long-dc-ltransportation are being deceived,
The public is not getting its
money's worth, and Ihe ability
of our total transport plant to
meet a national emergency is be-
ing seriously endangered.
Great Northern begins 1961 op-
detcr-jcontinuing program of improving
track, rolling stock, motive pow
er and operating facilities. The
1.100 new freight-carrying cars in
1960. This equipment included 750
boxcars and 350 units for special
itransport requirements. In addi-
lion, heavy repairs were made
on 400 older freight cars.
Track improvements in 1960
eluded installation of approxi-
imalcly 78 miles of new, heavy
nl I l.n ...1. .
Double Previous Growth Rate Predicted
In Nonaqricultural Employment Fields
Oregon's economy is off to a
good start toward achieving the
dynamic growth forecast for the
1960s, the Oregon Department of
Planning and Development said
in a report to Gov. Mark O. Hat
field summarizing the past year s
activities.
The department, noting that
nonagricultural employment in
creased bv 12 per cent in the
pasl decade, said gains of 23.4
ler cent or nearly double the
previous growth rate can be
lorecast lor the next 10 years
on the basis of trends now under
way in the economy.
Even that rule can be increased
by programs instituted to influ-:
once both the rate and nature of
economic expansion in the state,
Ihe department said.
A total of 93 new manufactur
ing plants and plant expansions
were recorded in the state din
ing 1960, creating a total of 5,700
new jobs. This will result in about
twice that number of jobs in
service industries.
Some of this gain was obscured
during the final months of the
year by effects on the state's big
lumber and plywood Industry of
decline in home building nation
ally, and by (lie general slow-
down in the nation's growth rate.
Industrial expansion during the
year included 25 plants by new
Oregon companies, 55 new plants
and expansions by existing Ore
gon firms, and 13 new plants by
outside companies. In addition,
the department has active "pros
pect files" on 140 companies
which are interested in locating
in Oregon.
I
PACE ft C HERALD AND
$40-Bitton Upturn In Economy
Forecast By Business Magazine
NEW YORK - The annual 18-
month forecast of Fortune maga
zine's widely quoted Business
Roundup says that the U.S. econ
omy is already heading into a
broad advance that will produce
sizable boom within a years
lime. Fortune's economists ex
pect that in the next 18 months
the gross national product will
rise eight per cent from its re
cent rale of $505 billion to $545
billion.
Fortune's forecast has good
news for all sectors of business.
The advance df the economy
should begin to reduce unemploy
ment by this spring. Thereafter,
strange as it may seem now,
there may be a question of wheth
er the nation's manpower capaci
ty will grow enough by 1962-63
to warrant a big advance in capi
tal formation."
The coming 1961 upturn, says
Fortune, traces basically back to
the success of tlie nation's experi
ment in economic stabilization
during the pasl year. Moreover,
the economy has about completed
its 1960 readjustment, which was
Inrpelv rnnfinpH tn invpntnrips.
Here are the 10 major factors
on wnicn fortune oasea us lore-
cast:
GE Planning
New Center
PORTLAND General Elec
tric Company today announced it
is establishing a new service cen
ter here Jan. 3 for its houseware
and radio products in a 4.000
square foot leased building at 2137
E. Burnsidc SU
Manager of the center, second
one to be set up in the North-
west, will be James H. Martin,
who has moved here from Utica.
N.Y., with his family and liven
at 14.13 N.E. Portland Boulevard.
Martin said the center will em
plov two other men and probably
will have two more by I-eb. 1. Fa-
cilities have been designed to
serve 23 employes, he said.
The "service center" will pro-
vide local repair and parts serv-,
ice In metropolitan Portland foriMamath rails, he became head
such General Electric products as
irons, toasters,
mixers, coffee
makers,
heaters,
blankets, heating pads.'namcd general agent in Tacoma
vacuum i-ln-jnni-c f!ur unil in 1UQ huranifi pmiAr.il mtMit
polishers, clocks, radios, phono-:
(graphs and others. It will serve
in-(consumers, dealers and distribute
ors.
Martin said off stivet parking
The company's only other Norlh-itation
west center is in Seattle, and its
other West Coast centers are in the Wcstlake District of Daly, population surge of 18 per cent or make postponed repairs on the And yet on the face of the massive ing readjustment" or "an appar
San Francisco and Los Angeles. iCity. iior Ihe same period. lold one, to generally spend moncy'cconomic indicators, 1960 was aicnt recession."
The report continued
"We are not in the business of
signing up new smokestacks for
Oregon. Our function is to con
ccive and carry out programs
which will result in expansion of
all phases of our economy, in
cluding agriculture, tourism, rec
reations, service industries and
manufacturing industries."
Some of the programs institut
ed to inlluence both the nature
and rate of the state's economic
growth were lis'ed as follows:
A broad program of "invest
ment opportunity" studies point
ing out the economics and feasi
bility of both market and re
source-related opportunities for.
business and industry ventures in
Oregon. Two such studies have
been completed, six are under
way and 35 proposed studies are
being evaluated.
Expansion of promotional activ
ities to include economic develop
ment tours, a motion picture, new
publications and cooperation with
Oregon companies in national ad
vertising programs.
Creation of the Space Age In
dustrial Park at Boardman, and
good progress" toward locat
ing a space technology- industry
on tlie site.
Expansion of research and sci
ence-based activity to generate
new ideas, new products and new
industries.
Strengthening and expansion of
programs for servicing and assist
ing Oregon communities. Two
field representatives have been
added, a manual on community
development has been issued, in-
Business
By Floyd
NEWS, Klamath Falls, Ore.
Defense spending will rise at
rate of $2.5 billion a year.
The budget will be unbalanced,
with total federal spending rising
at the rate of $6 billion or more
a year.
Capital spending wilt start to in
BERNARD P. COSTELLO
COStdlO GctS
New U.P. Post
Staff changes including the cre
ation of a new executive post in
the Northern California hcadquar
ters of Union Pacific Railroad
were announced Thursday by Mad
ison H. Fowler, traffic manager.
Effective Jan. 1, Bernard P.
Costcllo, general freight and pas
senger agent, w ill assume the new
position of assistant traffic man
ager. It was disclosed also
Raymond G. Owen, assistant
freight traffic manager with more
than 46 years of Union Pacific
Service, will retire on Dec. 31. i
Joining r owlcr s staff as gen-
oral freight and passenger agent
will be Joseph A. Golobick. With
the railroad since 1926, he was
general agent in Oakland when,
three years ago, he was trans
ferred to the company's Omaha
headquarters.
An Iowa native. Costcllo began
UoL
his railroad career in 1936 in Ihe
, Reno office of U.P. Following
transfers to Boise. Twin Falls andltotal Oregon population grown to
of the service bureau in Omaha
in 1944. Three years later he was
freight
department, in the Sanibutcher - baker - candlestick mak -
Francisco office. He assumed his
present position in 1953.
Costcllo is a member of the
Olympic Club. San Francisco
Commercial Club, Pacific Traf-j
Ific Association and the Transpor -
Hub of San Francisco. He
lues at 97 Glcnrose Avenue in
Idustrial site surveys have been
completed for GO communities.
and assistance given to many
communities on special program
and projects. "New industries do
not locate in a state; they lo
tale in a community," the de
partment noted.
Emphasis on assisting existing
Oregon industry lo grow and pros
per. Such assistance has included
tax matters, raw materials, mar-
jkets, new products, relocation and
expansion problems,
Four major planning projects
have been undertaken
Broad support and participation
in these programs have been
achieved on a statewide basis, thi
department noted. Industrial de
velopment corporations have been
established in 21 communities
More than 100 citizens from all
segments of the economy are
working at the state level on ad
visory and special committees for
transportation, business climate,
new industries, and science, en
gineering and new technologies.
The department said close work
ing relationships have been estab
lished with chambers of com
merce. colleges and universities,
area development departments of i
Oregon companies, and with de
partments of the state govern
mcnt.
"Programs instituted in the past
year have generated a tremen
dous amount of interest and ac
tivity , in economic development
throughout the state," the depart
ment said. "Oregon has gained
the momentum necessary to
achieve a dynamic economy.'
Review
L Wynne
Sunday, January 1, 1961
crease by midyear; by spring of
1962 a new record capital-spend
ing rale of $51 billion a year is
likely.
Inventory liquidation Is slowing,
and soon business will be build
ing up its stock on hand.
Construction of housing will turn
up; housing starts, now at an
annual rate of more than 1,200,000,
will, by the spring of 1962, be
approaching 1,400,000.
Prices and wages will both go
up, but slowly about two per
cent a year for the general price
level, perhaps three per cent a
year for factory wages.
Income and savings will
increase; income in current dol
lars will rise nine per cent over
the next 18 months,
J
dim Sd ulbsi
will resume their normal
Tnai raie oi
about 7.4 per cent of spendable i
income by late '61.
Consumer spending will in
crease by four per cent a year.
Credit, considerably eased from
a year ago, will continue so. w ith
interest rates remaining fairly
steady.
Exports, presently high, may
decline as Europe's boom flat
tens, but other factors will im
prove the U.S. balance of pay
menls. NAM Sees
Future Pinch
PORTLAND (Special) Will
Oregon's business britches be big
enough in the current decade?
thatiThe National Association of Man
ufacturers points to a possible
future pinch despite the current
slack. x
Oregon's business base Isn't des
tined to expand apace with a
goods-and-serviccs hungry popu-
lation, an NAM study indicates.!
Some 8.000 new businesses will
SnT'Cr'SS,
m-Lfl, -i11 h .liohllv lvW Ihnl
lWeo increase, when the totai:Pcrts think of ,he llfte ofet home appliances such as freez- i
itpw from 4S400 to wono itne econom.v. Pnt and future, ers, ranges, refrigerators and tel- .
The 65.000 firms will be sup-
plying goods and services to a
? 153 non inr luriinp 6 000 milit.-irvlnf hiMiness lhal hopan last mid.
personnel, the NAM estimates,
At the current decade s end
676.300 Oregon household units Reasons for such a belief are:nual rate of $54 billion. Forecasts.
!uilt Ht-wiiHimt ntvin Iht ctatn'cUII The iMncimiAr u iil lnnon hi are that it will co to $55 billion in
the Sanibutcher-baker-candlestick
er set. Many of the same firms
also will be suppliers for ncr-jthe
sons and businesses in other
states and foreign countries.
This circumstance, the NAM
savs. will, accentuate the fact
that a business growth of 14 per
cent isn't keeping pace with a
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS '
tTpWri (U MUhs Nr Wick)
DURABLE GOODS I
INDUSTRIES f A W
J AU MANUFACTURING
10mJm . f INDUSTRIES
ssSJ NONDURABLE GOODS
ga INDUSTRIES
70 I
i ti 1 1 ii 1 1 tit 1 1 1 it 1 1 tiT I .tt t.y.rlflf. ttttf
I & WW T4T I I I
I957
195S
AMERICA'S PAY LINE After dropping sharply from an
early year high, the average weekly earnings of the nation's
industrial production workers recovered to just over 90
dollars at the close of 1960. Data: Department of Labor.
, PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS
,'5'8'800 1,277,000
J9 (ESTIMATED!
1 eSti m
HOUSING IS DOWN Although the nation's population
pressed upward in 1960 by more than three million, private
housing starts fell off from 1959 by about 230,000 .units.
Builders blamed tight money. Source: Dept of Commerce.
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
110
100
MN.1957 7 STEEL STRIKE
y
I l l i f l i I i i I l i i ill 1 1 i i I i n l l 1 i l ill I I i I i-i I i n i i
90
80
1957
1958
THE WHEELS TURNED The nation's total industrial pro
duction in 1960 was down from a January high. Recovery
from the 1958 slump generally continued, though. Informa
tion is from Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Survey Shows Business
To Advance During 1961
Despite reduced optimism, a Oregon area expressed the lowest
majority of western business lead-
ers expect activity during the
first quarter of the new year to
lnnal or OVf-norl Ih. mmrarAI
m 'ji I
p-'" v. vvu,6
survey by Prudential Insurance
Company.
Sixty-four per cent of Pruden
tial's 1.000-member Western Busi
ness Forecast panel predict that
business in the approaching quar
ter will equal or improve upon
the same 1960 period. Well over public utilities, where over three
a third anticipate gains of one quarters of the members expect
to 10 per cent, while almost one
out of 10 look for advances of
11 to 40 per cent.
In a comparison with the final
quarter of 1960, approximately six
out of 10 panelists believe that
business will continue at the same
pace or advance during the first
part of 1961
Businessmen in the Washington-!
Good Times Expected Back
Toward End Of 1961 Period
By L, A. BROPHV "
AP General Business Editor
NEW YORK (API-Things will
get worse before they get better,
for ,e arc ed to be'
- . .
Thal ab0ut SUmS
mey ngure n mis way:
A continuation for the first few
months of 1961 of the slow erosion
jvcar. then a pickup increasing to'Scst Prop under the economy. AsjWIlioa. compared to $215.4 billion
flho end of the vear. Ithe year ended, it was at an an-i'01- 1959- Retail and foreign trade
purse strings: 2 the govern
ment will send more money into!
economic bloodstream.
In manv respects it will be up
ho the individual to mail 1M1
mak-'nurse strincs: 2 the eovern-ithe
better year. jsteel operating rate at only;P'n on business. Were we in a
If he decide" to hnv thjt new! around half of capacity as the :n cession?
car. to get his wife liie home ap-iycar ended, union officials esti-;
pliancc she covets, to buy a houselmatcd 150.000 workers were idle.
1960
1959
1960
degree of optimism among the
geographical groupings. The per
centage expecting first quarter
E expecting
'business to equal or better the
in
same period in 1960 ran 27 points
below the high mark of 76 per
cent posted by Northern California-Hawaii
panelists.
The highest confidence among
the industry groupings was ex
pressed by transportation and
their business in the upcoming
1959
quarter to equal or improve ovcriTuesdaVt Klamath County was one
the comparable period of 1960. of sjx in Qrecon which has ex-
West In Review, Prudential's
index of business activity issued
with the forecast, indicates that
business activity during the third in the county through Novem
quarter of 1960 showed a slightlber 30 were $658,034 and the coun-
decline of 0.3 basis points from
the second quarter.
that has been laid away, the econ
omy will get a stimulation it bad
ly needs.
Surveys have indicated the con-
grease in new home buying and;n higher than I960.
...,..
mere seems nine oouoi mat;
federal purchases of goods and .
Services Will EO UP. It IS the OIB-
first three months of 1961 and'coin showed profits not keeping
undoubtedly higher if present
ditions become worse.
Distressing pockets of bad times
a'rtnttfd the nation in 1960. With the
Phone Firm
Planning
Big Outlay
Pacific Telephone Northwest has
programmed a $23.9 million out
lay to expand and improve tele
phone service in Oregon during
1961, r. M. .Mitchell, the com
pany's vice president and general
manager, announced recently.
"This expenditure of almost $24
million is certainly the best evi
dence of our belief in the essen
tial soundness of Oregon's econ
omy and in the future growth
prospects of the state," Mitchell
said.
Reporting on I960, Mitchell said
the number of telephones served
by his company in the state in
creased by 22,942 to a total of
576,169. The number of long dis
tance calls went up about 6.6 per
cent during the year, he added.
In Klamath Falls 341 phones
were added to the total in serv
ice during the year, according to
Manager A. B. Dickcrman. There
are now 15.696 phones in the
Klamath Falls exchange.
Looking ahead, Mitchell listed
bringing Direct Distance Dialing
to some 160.000 Portland phones
with ATlantic, CApitol and BE1
mont exchanges in May, 1961, a
one of the company's biggest pro
jects during the coming year.
DDD will be extended to Ihe rest
of Portland and nearby suburban
communities in 1962.
Completion of manual to dial
conversions at Florence and at
Arlington in 1961 will bring dial
service to 99 per cent of the
company's telephones in Oregon,
he said.
Paper Users
Eye Sawdust
Sawdusl from Douglas fir may
become a new raw material for
production of corrugated paper
used in manufacture of boxboards,
according to R. M. Samuels, in
charge of studies on pulp and
paper at the Oregon Forest Re
search Center, Corvallis. An ex
panding boxboard industry in the
Pacific Northwest could provide
a market for this wood residue.
Tests at the research center
have indicated that paper made
from Douglas fir sawdust does
not have great strength, but is
crush-resistant. Paper for corru
gated parts of boxboards need
not have conventional properties
of strength, but must be crush
resistant, stated Samuels.
Alder presently is being used in
manufacture of corrugated paper.
Utilization of sawdust in making
this paper would produce a high
er return than mills now re
ceive selling sawdust as fuel. In
addition, other mills might find
a market for sawdust, Samuels
said.
Other effects of sawdust on qual
ity of paper are being investigat
ed by the wood scientists in this
study.
Research in pulp and paper at
the research center is supported
by a tax on timber harvested in
Oregon.
Exceed Quota
According to word received
ceeded its Savings Bond sales
quota for this year.
Sales of E and H Savings Bonds
ty's sales quota for the full year
came lo a total of $630,000.
record year.
The gross national product (the
total value of all goods and serv
ices) was estimated at an annual
range of $503 billion and that was
The automobile industry made
slightly more than six million pas
senger cars, second only to 1955,
the best year in history.
Retail sales were estimated by
the Federal Reserve Board at $220
comoinea
ume. but
set record dollar vol
the other side of the
con-lpace because of higher operating
costs
Al' of these things led to eon-
fU5'n as to just what label to
Some called it "mild rece jsion."
Other economists settled for "roll-