8 B
WEDNESDAY, JULY 24. ISM
MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE. MEDFORD, OREGON
Your Honey's
Worth
By SYLVIA PORTER
Cyrithf. HH Sv4lcM. Im.
'SUMMER RISE' IN STOCKS MISSING TO DATE
In the month of July Irom 1897 through 1962 the stock
market, as measured by the familiar Dow-Jones industrial
avOTaee. advanced 45 times, declined only 20 suggesting
odds of more than two to one that the stock market aver-
aie would rise in July. 1963. The month isn't over yet
the market still could surge upward and thereby fulfill
the Wall Street tradition of the July rise, but the way the
market has been acting to date, it's a good bet that when this
July ends, the record from 1897 through 1963 will be 48
advances, 21 declines.
The historical precedent for a "summer rally" in the
stock market is impressive. In the month of August from
1897 through 1962, the record has been 46 advances, only
19 declines. Under the circumstances, I'm not crawling out
on any short-term forecasting limb to guess where the stock
market averages might be by the end oi August.
- The point Is, though, that despite historical precedent,
the market since the start of summer has been drooping
It made its high on the Dow-Jones index at the end of May
has been drifting up and, overall, has lost ground since.
i Of course, the averages hide the fact that every day
many individual stocks are reaching new highs and this
U a "market of stocks'! instead ot a -stock marxei." uui
if the summer rally Is to come, it's unquestionably coming
late. . . ,
Why ihe llalleunesa in view of in fact that lnfor
4 mation about in U. S. economy continual good, corpor
i aiion profits and dividends are rising? Thar an two
J prime answers.
J(1) A first reason Is uncertainty, for the stock market
abhors uncetrainty as nature abhors a vacuum and there
ia Dientv of uncertainty around now about tax cuts
strikes, the new government report on the securities mar
ket, Sovlet-U. S. relations, increases in interest rates, now
long this economic advance will last, etc.
; Most important to the market is uncertainty about the
timing as well as size and form of tax reduction, until tne
civil rights explosion, the market was expecting that a sub
stantial tax reduction bill would be passed In October, that
the reductions would become effective Jan. 1, 1964 and
this stimulant to spending would put new life into our
economy. Now even those of us who are closely following
the tax bill's course are unable to get a strong feeling on
timing of passage. The date when the bill is slated to reach
the House floor again has been set back to late August. If
the Senate is in a filibuster when the House finishes the
bill, all predictions on Senate timing are strictly guesses.
Also unsettling Is the persistent large deficit in our
balance of payments and the fact that the Federal Reserve
Board and Treasury have acted deliberately to raise short
term Interest rates and thus make it more attractive for
foreign holders of dollars to keep their funds invested in
the U. S. The boost by the Federal Reserve in' the rate it
charges Its member banks for loans (the discount rate) to
3V4 per cent highlights the increasing attractiveness of other
mediums of Investment in comparison with stocks.
. ', The Securities and Exchange Commission's latest
teport on the securities markets came late In the month
i -after stock prices had declined perceptlbly-io this can
. ',not be gtoetv top billing as factor. Nevertheless, the :
SEC's sharp criticism of many established Wall Street
practices Is dlstutbtng and there Is considerable uncer
tainty as to what will happen next.
' (2) A second reason Is the public's Indifference to buying
stocks on a big scale now. The market has not declined under
heavy selling; rather it has been drifting inconclusively be
cause of the absence of spirited buying. 1
The medium-Income and smaller investor remains mostly
on the sidelines. He Is keeping his savings "liquid'-putting
phenomenal amounts Into savings accounts, He is just not
interested as he was before mid-1962 in risking his funds in
stocks. .
At any time, some news could shift the trends and we
may be sure it will be an unexpected event. But. as of today
in Wall Street, it's the summer doldrums, not the traditional
summer rally.
r 3tei
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wow
IMS
OPEN
EVERY
Monday
and
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UNTIL 9 P.M.
In Downtown Med ford And At
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JOIN THE FUN !
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e Cabana I) Light Eight II
Swim Sets Mes
R.a. 6.95 I. 16.95 a.,. ..98 t. 15.95 NOW ONLY
4" ., 9" fl 5" .o 1 1 99 fj 1199
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7 m
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SPORT GOATS
Reg. 24.98 to 55.00
1S9V4
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. 6.9
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Reg. 6.98 to 11.98
!99
to
6"
ll SWIM
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Boxer, Snug Fits,
One-Size Stretch
Reg. 2.98 to 8.95
1",. 4"
TOP BUYS For BOYS!
2.2o Short Sleeve Knits 1.98 .99
4.00 2.99
4 20 Short Sleeve Sweat Shirts 1.98 .99
3.98 2.49
2.2o Short Sleeve Cotton Shirts 1.98 .99
3e98 2e99
2.20 Cabana Swim Sets 3.98 2.99
6.48 4.99
4.1 s Casual Wash Pants 6.98 4.99
2.98 1.99
4.20 Swim Suits 1.98 .99
3.98 2.99
MOV Socks .59 .39
mi Beachers 2.49 1.49
3.98 2.99
mi Bermudas 2.98 1.99
and "Cut Off" 3.98 2.99
4.20 Long Sleeve Shirts 1.98 .99
2.98 1.49
3.98 2.49
4.20 Sweaters 3.98 2.99
Orion Pullover 9.98 6.99
14.20 Pull Over Wool Sweaters 10.S3 5.49
14-20 Short Sleeve Sweat Shirts 4.C0 1.99
Hooded "eieellenf For water ekiltie"
si r f si f t t r w f i it r iex omw-" iasi
Ride 'n Shop! 4
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Regular 45.00 to 89.50
ff 3299 . 62"
t U "CtK Summer Slacks 11
Ml .4" air Jl
NyQ tl TW Regular 6.98 to 16.95
Name Brand Quality
Cotton Pants
Reg. 4.98 and 5.98
49 T99
J) and J)
TIES
Good Selection
Knit Shirts & Sweat Shirts
Short and Long Sleeves
99 t IS 99
o
Reg. 2.98
to 8.95
I PRICE
Straw Hats
Reg. 2.98 to 4.98
1 99 O 49
Bermuda Shorts
AND BEACHERS
Reg. 3.98 to 8.98
2"; 5
49
WORK SHOES and BOOTS
1.HH"
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(o)
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8"
11"
15"
Regular Values
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CASUAL SHOES
SANDALS and SLIPPERS
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to 12.95
We Will Gladly Validate Ride and Shop Tickers
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If
Next to Pick's Apparel Downtown Medford
B9
Iras.
. . . Con.enicnf petkinq makes
it m eaiy ta vnit RobiiHon
Brw., Pick', and ether down
town Modtotd .torn and ehops.
Uil THEM . . . Th. r. FREE
when vou ihop DOWNTOWN
IN MEDFORD I '
323 I. Main
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