10 D THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8. 1962
MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE. MEDFORD. OREGON
Highly Informed Correspondents Review Tense East-We
t Situation
Editor's notes Speculation
bout United Slatei-Soviet
relation! and the direction in
which they are heading hat
increased sharply since the
Cuban crisis. Four highly in
formed correspondents who
have followed closely the
diplomatic maneuvers in the
world capitals, assets the sit
uation in the following spe
cial report.
By United Press International
Is the relationship between
the Soviet Union and the
United States about to enter
sn entirely new climate
Has there been a turning
point in the long struggle be
tween the Communist ana
free world, an ebbing of the
tide that has seen Marxism
engulf vast portions of our
globe?
Up until the Cuban crisis,
those questions would not
have been asked. Since then,
there have been straws in the
wind to indicate that we may
be passing through one of
those periods which historians
will come to record as a de
cisive time, a time when the
course of events moved into a
new channel.
One of those straws came
on the night of Nov. 20 at
President Kennedy's press
conference.
After breaking the moment
ous news that Wikita Khrush
chev had backed down on tne
1L28 bombers and that the
United Stales was lifting its
quarantine of Cuba, Kennedy
said in answer to a question:
". . . This is a rather cli
mactic period and I think that
we can perhaps tell in the
next six months what is going
on in the world beyond this
hemisphere with more pre
cision. . .
"If five years ago we had
looked at the world, I don't
think we would have made
a judgment that it would have
moved quite the way it has
moved, that China and India
would be involved In a very
serious struggle which may
lead to full scale war : . . and
that relations in many parts
of the world would be chang
ing as they are. I think this
is a very climactic period."
That same day, speaking in
New York, Secretary of State
Dean Rusk'said;
"I suspect we 'are on the
front edge of significant and
perhaps unpredictable events
Three days later As 'slant
Secretary ot Stale for Inter
national Affairs Harlan Cleve
land out a damper on Ion
optimistic speculation. He said
any assumption thai tne i n
Servicemen
ENLISTED
Several Jackson county
men have enlisted or recnlisl
cd in the U. S. Navy's branch
station, Mcdford, during No
vember. They include Clifton R.
Masscy Jr., son of Mrs. Nelda
Roberts, HI Chestnut St.;
James M. Williams, son of
Francis E. McCalcb. route 2,
box 6(9,'., Central Point;
Jerry A. and Joe A. Gamble,
sons of Mrs. Harriet J. Lo
max, 620 Ray lane, Ashland;
Franklin R. Marshall, son of
Mrs. Margaret R. Marshall,
V.15 North Front St., Talent;
llichard W. Wnlkcr, son of
Wyllc T. Wnlkcr. box 277,
Prospect, and Barton L.
Cowan, son of Mr. and Mrs.
Robert Cowan, 325 North
Oakdale avc., Mcdford.
ban backdown presages a gen
eral Russian retreat was "bot-tlcd-in-bond
mythology."
But Cleveland, too, said
there migtn now be a "turn
ing point"-that the Commun
isl world might undergo "an
evolutionary mutation-chang
ing subtly and with massive
deliberation.
If such a change is at hand,
how will It manifest itself?
Will it affect the Berlin stale
mate? Is an open break be
tween Red China and Russia
a likelihood? What about dis
armament?
United Press International
asked four of its most widely
informed correspondents what
they thought of the "turning
point" idea. They are Morri-
man Smith, White House cor
respondent since the Roose
velt days. Henry Shapiri, Mos
cow bureau chief more than
25 years; Stewart Hensley,
chief correspondent at the
State Department, and Karol
Thaler, veteran of a decade
of European diplomatic re
porting. Shapiro Optimistic
It was interesting that the
two Washington correspond
ents took a relatively dim
view of any grand new era
of East-West cooperation, that
Thaler was somewhere in be
tween and Shapiro slightly
more optimistic.
Here are their comments on
these questions;
is this a turning point?
Shapiro:
Cuba has shown how much
pride Khrushchev is willing
to swallow to avoid nuclear
war. President Kennedy, with
his desivencss in the Cuban
crisis, with his readiness to
act without time delaying con
sultation with America's al
lies, must have gained him
new stature in Khrushchev's
eyes. The Soviet premier has
always maintained that if he
could only achieve agreement
with the United States in the
Interests of world peace, no
other nation could possibly
object.
In the present circum
stances, it is reasonable lo ex
pect a reactivation of Soviet
foreign policy looking to
wards a normalization of
East-West relations and event
ual relaxation of world ten
sions which would enable
Khrushchev to devote all his
resources and energies to do
mestic problems and cause a
solution of the Sino-Soviel
conflict.
Smith:
No, I don't really agree that
things generally between the
U.S. and U.S.S.fl. might be
getting better. At least, we
have no solid evidence to this
effect.
Russia's pattern over a
great many years has been
to turn crisis off and on as
she probes expansion possi
bilities around the world.
John Foster Dulles, before
and after the Geneva M55
summit meeting, warned
Americans not to expect
much. The Eisenhower admin
istration had the same warn
ings before and after the
roseate li)50 Khrushchev visit
and the so called "spirit of
Camp David." We've been
through these happy hours be-
sWi'tiii,
fVfaiitA " J I - 5L fr--4
VIEWS ON RELATIONS - United Press International has
asked four of its most widely informed correspondents what
they think of the theory that there might now be a turning
point for the better in U. S. - Soviet relations. They are Mer
riman Smith, upper left, who takes a relatively dim view of
the prospect; Henry Shapiro, upper right, who is slightly
more optimistic; Karol Thaler, lower left, who takes a view
somewhat in the middle, and Stewart Hensley, lower right,
who shares Smith's opinion. (UPI)
fore and each time the result
has always been that the Rus
sians had a method in their
pleasantries.
Yet, Western statesmen can
not afford lo be completely
cynical about each thaw in
the .cold war. Each positive
development, no matter how
transitory, carries the hope of
some residual good. , ,
Thaler:
The signs as seen from here ;
(Europe) are that in months
to come Khrushchev is likely
lo embark on a new major j
peace offensive, and a new 1
diplomatic offensive lo supple- j
menl it. He is expecled to ap-j
pear more amenable and offer
pledges for cold war settle
ments. But lie is nut held
likely to give anything away
or even to offer easy solu
tions. One must hear in mind that
Moscow's and, for that mat
ter. Khrushchev's own long-
term policy aims have not t
changed, despite Cuba. The
long term 'aim of the Kremlin
is and remains lo change set- j
backs, has if anything,;
strengthened Russia's deter-!
'initiation to achieve this. With
this goes aim to spread com-i
munism world-wide.
Hensley:
Turning points are usually
not identifiable except by his-,
loric hindsight. It 1 had to
stick my neck out, I would
say that the turning point has
yet to come and that it will
depend on the skill with
which the United Stales is
able to exploit the existing
situation.
On the other hand, it may
have come when Russia pull
ed out of the Congo affair,
suffered major reverses in
Guinea and obviously de
cided the Soviet bloc eco
nomic base was in no condi
tion to sustain major conti
nental offensives of this na
ture. .
The Soviet retreat in Cuba
undoubtedly has increased the
doubts of many of the world's
hungry and ragged- as well as
those who are simply oppor
tunistic fence sitters-as to
whether communism is in
deed "the wave of the future."
My assumption is that we
can anticipate a period of
superficial relaxation of East
West tensions due to the en
forced necessity for Khrush
chev to review his strategy
after the failure of his gam
ble to convert Cuba into a
strategic nuclear base. Basic
ally, however, I would assume
that Soviet - American rela
tions in the fundamental
sense are as bad as ever, pos
sibly worse.
What can we expect in the
near future in Soviet-American
relationships?
Hensley:
Most top officials in Wash
ington appear to expect a new
Soviet "peace offensive" as
the next phase, with Khrush
chev posing as the "apostle
of peace" who magnanimous
ly pulled his weapons out of
Cuba in the interest of world
peace instead of because he
had to.
Such an offensive undoubt
edly would be designed to
lull the West into compla
cency. Most officials believe there
may be some possibility of
agreement on a nuclear test
ban since this is the issue on
which the two sides seem
closest at this point. It de
pends on two factors: 1-How
much progress made in its
last test series; 2-How com
pelling is Russia's need to
lessen the strain of the nu
clear program on its economy
in order to put more dyna
mism into its international
economic offensive which, ex
cept for Cuba, is at a virtual
standstill.
Thaler:
The next few months may
see the Russians more amen-
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Larry G. Smith, radioman
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19 93
able in negotiations with the
West, but experts here doubl
whether Moscow will make
any major concessions on real
ly essential issues. They may
agree to a nuclear test ban,
although they are not expect
ed really to allow Americans
or Britons to inspect Soviet
territory proper.
They will almost certainly
seek some accord on prevent
ing nuclear weapons from get
ting in the hands of other
nations. They are desperately
anxious to keep Western nu
clear weapons away from the
Germans and in turn have no
intention to give - the atom
bomb to Red China.
Optimists believe there may
even be some form of settle
ment on Berlin, at least a
temporary one.
Shapiro;
Four areas in which new
moods many manifest them
selves shortly from the Krcm-1 Smith: ;
Berlin cominucs io qe ine
lin arc:
1 -Postponement of the oft
threatened showdown on Ber
lin. 2. -Progrcss for an agree
ment banning nuclear tests.
3. -General disarmament.
4. -Developments on the
Sino-Indian border clash.
Agreement on nuclear test
ing is likely to materialize
first.
real flashpoint between' East
and West and this will con
tinue to be the case until'the
Russians make a rather solid
public committment lo contin
uation of at least the status
quo.
The Kennedy - Macmillan
meeting set for mid-December
is no bland, routine checkup.
Kennedy and Macmillan have
something, or many 'thing;,
they want to discuss.
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