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About Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989 | View Entire Issue (Sept. 24, 1962)
10 A MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24. 1B2 MEDFOHO MAIL TRIBUNE. MEDFORD. OREGON EoiMw'tioii, Keseafch ograms of lams Told fey Morgan (Editor's noiei Howard Morgan, fermtr Oregon public utilities commission or and now on in Federal Powtr Commlnion. recent ly accompanied Secretary ol tht Interior Stewart Udall and othor mimbiri of the Federal Powtr Commission io Russia. This it anoihtr in a series of articUi in which Morgan reviews torn oi hli impressions whila touring Russia.) By HOWARD MORGAN I want to discuss briefly and in layman's language the construction and research pro grams of the hydroelectric dams, extra high voltage transmission facilities and in terconnected power networks which we went to Russia to examine. The preceding two articles have given some Indication of how easy it is to go to the Soviet Union with preconceiv ed ideas and, by ignoring one side or the other of the nu merous paradoxes one 'sees, come up with either a black and dismal or a bright and shining picture of what Is go ing on there, depending entire ly on one's prejudices. I have tried to present a realistic and balanced account of my observations, within the narrow limits of those obser vations, avoiding all comment on the emotion-charged ques tions of international and in ternal politics. I am sure this hns satisfied neither the many who insist upon predictions of failure for everything In Russia no mat ter what the facts may be, nor the few who, equally un disturbed by facts, insist that the Soviet Union is already the workers' paradise that the more realistic Russians hope It may someday become. Discussing Programs In discussing the electric programs we went there to see, it should be possible to get away from Impressions and to get down to facts and figures. We had at least a, half dozen highly qualified engi neers In our party whose eval uations I shall rely on. Some of the facts and figures will jolt the complacent, j First, one should under stand that, although at the time of the revolution Russia was the most backward Euro pean nation In the develop ment of electric power, the total electrification of Russia was at once made the goal, the center and the heart of the industrialization plans laid down then, over 40 years ago Every plan launched since then has had this same cen tral feature. During the '20s and '30s American engineers and contracting firms, as well as American generator and turbine manufacturers, work ed with the Russians to devel op both hydro and steam gen eration, as well as high-volt' age transmission Lend-lease assistance help ed rebuild war-damaged plants and lines, and even built few new ones for war produc tion during the 40s. Self Sufficient Since shortly after World War II the Russians have been self-sufficient, and have car ried on an increasingly large and rapid construction pro gram unaided, even develop ing enough capacity to export skilled engineers, technicians and first-rate electric equip ment abroad to newly-developing areas. Today, in the generation of electric power, Russia has outstripped not only every na tion in Europe by very wide margins, but every other na tion in the world as well, except for the United States, Some comparative figures are interesting. In 1027, the earliest year for which the FPC has statistics, Russia had 1,005,000 kilowatts of Install ed generating capacity. The U. S. had passed that figure In 1900. By 1046 Russia had 12,338,000 kw. The U.S. had passed that figure exactly 30 years before in 1016. But by 1061 Russia had 74,000,000 kw, a figure equalled in the U. S. only 12 years earlier, in 1949. Ahead by Margin The U. S. is still ahead of Russia by a wide margin, wide enough to give rise to a good deal of self-congratulation in our electric industry. In 1961 we had nearly 200,000,000 kw of capacity; the Russians only 74,000,000 kw. But a closer look at the fig ures is disturbing, even with out going Into the matter of the uses to which they put their power In contrast to the uses we select. In 1932 we had almost 10 times as much ca pacity as they: about 43,000 000 compared to 4,675,000. By 1961 this margin had shrunk to less than three times. There are two ways to look at this. Notice that the absolute mar gin had widened, while the percentage of margin had shrunk. Naturally, a popular way to look at these facts is to emphasize the widening gap in absolute terms. But what gives rise to con cern among Americans who have studied these figures carefully, and who have gone to Russia for a look around, is the accelerating pace of the construction the Russians have recently built and the even faster acceleration of their plans for future construction. Building on Curves Both countries are planning and building on curves which rise more steeply each year, but the Russians' curve of ac tual construction is rising a little faster now than ours was 12 years ago, when we had the same capacity they presently have. What is more Important, they plan to steepen their con struction curve more drastic ally in the years ahead than some people think would be justified in the U. S. by the demands of our own economy. If this happens, the curves will Inevitably converge, in tersect and cross. Whether this will happen, of course, depends on a com plex of economic and perhaps political factors probably be yond the ability of anyone to predict with certainty. But in I960 a U. S. Senate committee, which toured Rus sia with engineering staff and studied power matters care fully, reported that I lie USSR is catching up with the U. S. in electric power pro duction, the basic field In which supremacy counts heav ily in peaceful economic com petition or in event of war . . The Russians couia over take us in 1975 In 15 years unless we speed up or they slow down." Whatever we or they actually do in the years to come, I can report that they have not the slightest Inten tion of slowing down. The following is one of the closing paragraphs from what seemed at least in its other portions to be a moderate and fac tual report covering the his tory of Soviet power develop ment, given lo our party by N. M. Chuprakov, chief engi need in charge of design, min istry of power station con struction. Like the whole of his report it was not delivered in a boastful or a challenging manner, but in a matter-of-fact way. "We set our goal to reach and then overtake the United States of America during the second half of the above pe riod (that is, in 1970-1980) at first with respect to the con sumption of electric power in industry, then with respect to total power generation and finally with respect to the power generated per-capita." ' I should add that Mr. Chup rakov, who travelled with us throughout our trip and was a most agreeable travelling companion though he speaks no English, has 20,000 design engineers wokring under his direction, tl does not include construction, opera tion or maintenance engineers; just design engineers, solely con cerned with generation and transmission of electric pow- ,er. i Take comfort In the fact that so far we seem to be ahead of the Russians in de sign, size and efficiency of steam generating units, which comprise the bulk of both their own and our power sys tems. One of our manufacturing concerns is now building a 1,000,000 kw single-unit steam generator, and several 800,000 kw units are in operation, while the Russians are only now building their largest at 300,000 kw. This doesn't seem to bother them, though it actually may; it is hard to tell. They claim they would rath er standardize at a moderate size and build more of them, which may or may not be the case. 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